Mortgage rates, loan limits and forbearance

We cover the increase in conforming loan limits for Fannie and Freddie and what forbearance numbers and record-low rates could mean for the housing market.

Untying business growth from the housing market cycle

Lenders need business growth that is not linear and is not tied to the market cycles – leveraging automation technology can help.

The practical use of AI for LOs

The combination of tightly-packed schedules and intensive oversight means augmenting loan officer’s efforts with intelligent systems is more relevant than ever.

HousingWire's 2020 Tech Trendsetters

This year’s list of Tech Trendsetters certainly earned their status as the industry was met with incredible challenges and new opportunities.

Politics & MoneyMortgage

Here’s why we won’t see a housing crisis after COVID-19

Recent job gains should reduce some forbearance loans

August is upon us, and the growth in the rate of new infections appears to be slowing. Vaccine development is progressing with some promising early results. The time has come to start thinking about what life will be like on the other side of this crisis. What can we expect post COVID-19?

Logan Mohtashami
Logan Mohtashami
Lead Analyst

Some things will not have changed. I already hear murmurs from the fear-mongering housing bears that once the forbearance plans expire, we can expect to see a collapse of the housing market in America like we haven’t seen since the bubble years. This is the same sorry song the bubble boys have been singing for the last eight years, with just a new verse.

But there are several economic conditions today that were not present before the previous housing collapse that almost ensure that a catastrophic failure will not happen.

First and most importantly, the loan profiles in the previous record-breaking expansion from 2010 to 2020 were excellent. Borrowers had good FICO scores, and the lack of exotic loan products means that most borrowers began their loans with the capacity to own the debt. Plus, 20%-30% of all homes were bought with cash in the last 10 years. We didn’t have a boom in cash-out loans either, so the equity has not been whittled down like what we saw from 2003-2006. 

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The downside of the hot 2020 housing market: rapid home-price growth

The mismatch in the COVID deflationary impact toward the economy overall and the strength of the housing market due to demographics makes for a troubling formula for home-price growth, which we are seeing. The recent NAR existing home sales report showed 15.5% year-over-year growth in prices. HW+ Premium Content

Nov 30, 2020 By
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