True Stories: Hybrid, eNote and RON Implementation

Join expert panelists that will discuss the status of federal legislation, trends in digital adoption and how best to prepare your organization for the next generation of lending processes.

Logan Mohtashami talks jobs report, mortgage forbearance

Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discusses his recent article on the latest jobs report and the most likely impact on the housing market and mortgage forbearance.

UWM has a plan to win a war of mortgage attrition

UWM's margins will fall all the way down to 75 to 110 bps. Mat Ishbia says it's the perfect environment to prove that his mortgage firm is truly elite.

Lunch & Learn about underserved markets and affordable housing

Experts in this discussion will focus on how the mortgage industry is working to right previous wrongs and champion a housing market that serves all.

Mortgage

Freddie Mac: Here’s what to expect from the housing market in 2020 and beyond

Mortgage rates should stay low, leading to another big year for refis

Just over a year ago, mortgage rates nearly hit 5%, levels that hadn’t been seen since the early part of this decade. But as we get ready to move into a new decade, mortgage rates are more than a full percentage point lower than that, comfortably back in the 3-4% range.

And according to a new forecast from Freddie Mac, mortgage rates should stay that low for the rest of this year and well beyond that.

In Freddie Mac’s newest housing market forecast, the company’s economic and housing research group states that they expect mortgage rates to remain around 3.8% for the rest of 2019 and stay at that level for all of 2020 and 2021.

As other recent forecasts and mortgage market data has shown, this year’s unexpectedly low mortgage rates have driven a rise in refinances, as well as a surge in home purchases.

A recent forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that 2019 is expected to be the best year for refis since 2016, and the best year for purchase mortgages since 2006.

Freddie Mac agrees and expects the good times to keep rolling. In its latest forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise expects there to be $846 billion in refinance originations this year, and $834 billion more in refis next year.

Both of those figures would be more than $300 billion more in refis than there were in 2018.

On the purchase side, Freddie Mac expects there to be $1.255 trillion in purchase originations this year. And the GSE expects those figures to rise in both 2020 and 2021.

According to Freddie Mac, it expects there to be $1.299 trillion in purchase originations in 2020 and $1.369 trillion in purchase originations in 2021.

Overall home sales are also expected to rise in each of the next two years. According to Freddie Mac, it expects to see 6 million home sales in 2019, 6.1 million home sales in 2020, and 6.2 million in 2021.

Despite home sales and purchase originations projected to rise over the next few years, Freddie Mac currently expects 2021 to see a decline in total mortgage volume from 2020’s expected level due to a decline in refis.

The GSE’s forecast expects to see just $429 billion in refis in 2021, perhaps a function of there simply not being that many people left who have not refinanced their mortgage by then, especially if mortgage rates stay as low as they are currently expected to.

Overall, Freddie Mac expects there to be $2.101 trillion in total mortgage originations in 2019, $2.132 trillion in originations in 2020, and $1.798 trillion in 2021.

The GSE also expects home price growth to slow over the next few years, with annual growth rates of 3.2%, 2.9% and 2.1% in 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively.

“The economy has seen increased volatility in November as hopes for a favorable resolution to the trade dispute have recently waned,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “However, given low interest rates, modest inflation and a solid labor market, the U.S. housing market continues to stand firm, and, our forecast is for the housing market to maintain momentum over the next two years.”

Most Popular Articles

How appraisers value homes in a hot housing market

How do appraisers value a home in a market where prices are escalating rapidly – and where nearly two-thirds of listed homes faced bidding wars in March? HW+ Premium Content

May 13, 2021 By

Latest Articles

FHFA: Fannie & Freddie Credit Risk Transfers “untested”

A Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) report highlighted the perils of low-rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s single-family Credit Risk Transfers.

May 17, 2021 By
3d rendering of a row of luxury townhouses along a street

Log In

Forgot Password?

Don't have an account? Please