Freddie Mac reports a realistic housing trajectory over the next five years, according to its Economic and Housing Market Outlook for November.
The government-sponsored enterprise forecasts that while the housing market won’t improve back to its glory days, gradually the healthy industry will be solid and ‘healthy’ again.
"What a healthy housing market should look like will dismay those who keep comparing housing to what it was during its peak years,” said vice president and chief economist Frank Notfhaft.
He added, “The long-term prognosis is promising – just don't expect the housing market to wake up at 98.6 degrees tomorrow morning."
Click on the graph to see housing market outlook.
Home sales increased about 5% on the housing stock, compared with sales of 7% of the stock in 2005. This is about 7 million homes per year.
Serious delinquency rates were about 2%, which is decline from a peak of 9.5% in 2010. Vacancy rates also continue to decline to 1.7% on homes for sale and 8% on rentals. This is a decrease from 3% in 2008 and 11% in 2009.
Housing starts increased between about 1.7 and 1.8 million homes per year, compared with 2.1 million in 2005. Home price appreciation also rose to 3% per year, compared to 11% in 2005.