CMBS Defaults on Track to Break 11% by Year-End: Fitch
Defaults on fixed-rate conduit US commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) loans continued at record speeds, on track to reach a cumulative default rate of 11% by year-end 2010, according to credit-rating agency Fitch Ratings. Cumulative defaults rose to 9.48% through June -- a 133bp-climb from Q110. This increase is in line with Fitch's expectation of an 11% cumulative default rate by year-end. Recent vintages drove the pace of defaults -- which include loans reported 60+ days delinquent at least once. Deals from 2007 bear cumulative default rates of 10.48%, and will likely reach 14% by the end of 2010, according to Fitch managing director Mary MacNeill. "Large, highly leveraged loans are also adding to the rising rate of defaults, with 14 loans greater than $100m defaulted in 2010," she said. And with more CMBS loans on the verge of default this fall, special servicers are being forced to accelerate them through the REO process to avoid building a shadow inventory similar to the one in residential, Fitch said previously. Write to Diana Golobay.