True Stories: Hybrid, eNote and RON Implementation

Join expert panelists that will discuss the status of federal legislation, trends in digital adoption and how best to prepare your organization for the next generation of lending processes.

Logan Mohtashami talks jobs report, mortgage forbearance

Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discusses his recent article on the latest jobs report and the most likely impact on the housing market and mortgage forbearance.

UWM has a plan to win a war of mortgage attrition

UWM's margins will fall all the way down to 75 to 110 bps. Mat Ishbia says it's the perfect environment to prove that his mortgage firm is truly elite.

Lunch & Learn about underserved markets and affordable housing

Experts in this discussion will focus on how the mortgage industry is working to right previous wrongs and champion a housing market that serves all.

Real Estate

Nationwide’s Berson: 2019 will be “solid year” for housing market

Index measuring housing conditions at highest point in three years

Despite choppy data on the housing market over the last few months, Nationwide Chief Economist David Berson says 2019 will outperform 2018.

"Economic figures from early in the year were probably negatively affected by the government shutdown as well as the impacts of higher interest rates over the second half of last year," said Berson, who was Fannie Mae’s chief economist for two decades. "Despite that, we believe that the housing market is poised for another solid year as slower house price growth and lower mortgage rates help affordability, while job gains and faster income growth sustain demand."

Nationwide’s Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets is at its highest point in three years, Berson said this week. Solid job growth, rising wages and strong household formations are driving the positive outlook, he said. The LIHHM is a rarity among housing market indices: It’s a forward-looking measure.

Through the first quarter of 2019, more than half of the LIHHM’s 221 regions showed a positive outlook, and only 27 were negative. By comparison, only nine LIHHM regional performance rankings were positive at the end of 2005 – just before the last housing crisis – and 255 were negative.

The 10 metro areas with the most positive LIHHM forecasts for 2019 are, in order: Sumter, South Carolina; Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida; Charleston, West Virginia; Hinesville, Georgia; Abilene, Texas; Vineland-Bridgeton, New Jersey; Port St. Lucie, Florida; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Pittsfield, Massachusetts.

The 10 MSAs with the least positive LIHHM outlooks are: Kennewick-Richland, Washington; Pueblo, Colorado; Yakima, Washington; San Jose, California; Chico, California; Manhattan, Kansas; Ames, Iowa; Ogden-Clearfield, Utah; San Rafael, California; and Odessa, Texas.

“There are three factors that have historically driven movements in home sales: population growth, job gains, and affordability,” Berson said in the report. 

He said: “Changes in population tend to influence longer-term sales trends more than year-to-year changes. While job gains did slow in a few of the states with contracting sales, there was still positive payroll growth on average — likely meaning that this was a minor factor in reduced sales activity. That leaves affordability as the primary factor that caused sales to decrease. Many of the states with the largest declines in existing sales also have the highest prices. Given already low affordability, these areas would be most sensitive to movements in rates and prices.”

Most Popular Articles

Generation X is looking to move to these metros

Millennials aren’t the only generation in the market for their dream home. Right now, Generation X makes up over a quarter of potential homebuyers.

May 14, 2021 By

Latest Articles

California’s consumer protection watchdog is “mini CFPB”

California intends to exercise its new muscles on behalf of residents easing back into the normal flow of housing financial responsibilities. HW+ Premium Content

May 18, 2021 By
3d rendering of a row of luxury townhouses along a street

Log In

Forgot Password?

Don't have an account? Please