Employment is set to increase in July, though slightly lower than last month’s increase, according to the ADP and Moody's Analytics National Employment Report.

ADP predicts employment will increase by 178,000 jobs in July, up from last month’s predicted 158,000 jobs, but down from the actual employment report’s 222,000 jobs.

The chart below shows July’s prediction compared to the predictions from previous months, however ADP doesn’t always have the best record.

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(Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics)

But while the report’s predictions each month may be spotty, the chart below shows it generally follows the same trend as nonfarm private employment.

Click to Enlarge


(Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics)

“Job gains continued to be strong in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, ADP Research Institute vice president and co-head. “However, as the labor market tightens employers may find it more difficult to recruit qualified workers.”

The goods-producing sector is set to increase as a decrease in manufacturing jobs partially offsets the increase other areas, including construction:

Natural resources and mining: Increase 3,000

Construction: Increase 6,000

Manufacturing: Decrease 4,000

The service-providing sector is set to increase by 174,000 jobs, with changes in these areas:

Trade, transportation and utilities: Increase 24,000

Information: Increase 8,000

Financial activities: Increase 13,000

Professional and business: Increase 65,000

Education and health: Increase 43,000

Leisure and hospitality: Increase 15,000

Other services: Increase 5,000

“The American job machine continues to operate in high gear,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said. “Job gains are broad-based across industries and company sizes, with only manufacturers reducing their payrolls. At this pace of job growth, unemployment will continue to quickly decline.”

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