FHFA: House price appreciation slowing down

Index of GSE sales prices up 0.3% in August

Home-price appreciation slowed in August, to plus 0.3% for the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index which is just below the low end of analyst expectations and down from a revised 0.5% gain in July.

Year-on-year appreciation, which had been edging up toward 6% in this report, moved down to 5.5%.

This report is now falling more in line with Case-Shiller data where appreciation has been more modest.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

From August 2014 to August 2015, house prices were up 5.5%. The U.S. index is 0.9% below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the December 2006 index level.

Click to enlarge

(Source: FHFA)

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from July 2015 to August 2015 ranged from -0.4% in the East North Central and Middle Atlantic divisions to +0.8% in the East South Central division.

The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +2.2% in the Middle Atlantic division to +8.3% in the Mountain division.

A few weeks ago, an earlier reading on the market using different metrics projected more aggressive home price growth.

Home prices are up both year over year and month over month for August, according to CoreLogic (CLGX). According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.9% in August 2015 compared with August 2014 and increased by 1.2% in August 2015 compared with July 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicated that home prices are projected to increase by 4.3% on a year-over-year basis from August 2015 to August 2016 and remain unchanged month over month from August 2015 to September 2015.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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