The official employment situation report for February will come out on Friday, but in the meantime two early metrics suggest job creation slowed in February.
ADP sees slowing for Friday's February payrolls, estimating that private payrolls rose 212,000 which is 8,000 below consensus for the ADP report.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, admitted he thinks job growth is slowing.
“Job growth is strong, but slowing from the torrid pace of recent months,” Zandi said. “Job gains remain broad-based, although the collapse in oil prices has begun to weigh on energy-related employment. At the current pace of growth, the economy will return to full employment by mid-2016.”
ADP's data also includes a big upward revision for January, to 250,000 versus an initially reported 213,000.
ADP’s report suggests most of the job growth to be lower paying jobs. Service-providing industries are up 181,000 in February versus 206,000 in January with goods-producing industries up 31,000 versus 45,000.
Professional services are up 34,000 versus January's 49,000 with construction up 31,000 versus 45,000.
Gallup's U.S. Job Creation Index has experienced a slow, but steady rise over the past several years after hitting a monthly low of minus 5 in February and April 2009. The index is a survey of opinions, not actual numbers.
Gallup's Job Creation Index is a measure of net hiring activity in the U.S., with the February average based on a nationally representative sample of more than 15,000 full- and part-time workers.
February's plus 29 score is the result of 41% of employees saying their employer is hiring workers and expanding the size of its workforce, and 12% saying their employer is letting workers go and reducing the size of its workforce. Forty-two percent reported no changes in staffing at their workplaces.