Initial estimates show slowdown in job growth

Early projections suggest serious drop

Initial job reports before Friday’s release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report, suggest January job growth will be slowing.

ADP sees a lower-than-expected 213,000 for private payrolls.

The 213,000 increase for January is the lowest since September which was also 213,000.

Increases in ADP's data from October to December averaged 257,000. By industries, the largest percentage gain for January comes from construction, up 0.3% or 18,000 jobs, and the lowest from manufacturing, up 0.1% or 14,000 jobs, and financial activities, also up 0.1% or 10,000 jobs.

ADP private payroll employment growth for December posted at 241,000. This compares with the BLS figure for December private payrolls of 240,000

Gallup’s index says that the hiring climate at the start of 2015 is similar to where it stood in the second half of 2014, with Gallup's U.S. Job Creation Index coming in at plus 28 for the month of January.

This is nearly identical to the plus 27 found in December, and just below the seven-year high of plus 30 reached in September.

The index has experienced six years of incremental progress after bottoming out at minus 5 in February and April 2009. This includes sharp improvements in the first half of 2014, with the index increasing from plus 19 in January to plus 27 in May and June. Since then, progress has stalled, with the index staying within a narrow four-point range.

U.S. workers' perceptions of hiring at their places of employment are the most positive Gallup has recorded in any January since Gallup began tracking this in 2008.

But the increase since last January came mostly in the first half of 2014. The index has since stalled, suggesting that the future of the jobs situation in the U.S. remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added between 190,000 and 220,000 jobs in January, down slightly from between 210,000 and 240,000 jobs in December.

“The labor market lost some steam in the past two months,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs.  “While our indicators do not point to a recession anytime soon, real-time tax data suggests the economy does not have as much momentum as Wall Street thinks.”

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 141 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.

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