The recent plunge in oil prices could cause home prices to slip in the oil-producing markets of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and elsewhere, writes Jed Kolko, the chief economist for Trulia.
“But it typically takes two years for oil prices to fully affect home prices in those markets,” Kolko writes. “At the same time, lower oil prices could boost home values in the Northeast and Midwest.”
According to the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, nationwide asking prices on for-sale homes were up 0.5% month-over-month in December, seasonally adjusted — a slowdown after larger increases in September, October, and November.
Meanwhile, Kolko writes, year-over-year, asking prices rose 7.7%, down from the 9.5% year-over-year increase in December 2013. Asking prices increased year-over-year in 97 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.
Here’s how it will affect various housing markets:
Four of the five markets where asking prices rose most year-over-year are in the South, including Atlanta, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, and Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach. Of the top 10, four are in the Midwest, including Cincinnati, Detroit, Lake-Kenosha Counties, and Indianapolis. Among markets with the largest asking price increases, Houston stands out for having a large local oil industry, accounting for 5.6% of jobs there.
Only Bakersfield and Baton Rouge have an even higher employment share in oil-related industries than Houston. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, New Orleans, and Fort Worth round out the seven large metros where oil-related industries account for at least 2% of employment. It’s not until you look at smaller metros that you find oil-related industries representing a larger employment share. In Williston, ND, and Midland, TX, they account for almost 30% of local jobs.
Oil prices have plunged from over $100/barrel in July 2014 to around $50/barrel in early January 2015, threatening oil-producing economies around the world. Within the U.S., big oil price drops have historically been associated with job losses and falling home prices in energy-producing regions. In particular, plummeting oil prices in the 1980s were followed by declines in employment and home prices in Houston, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, New Orleans, and other nearby markets.
We looked at year-over-year trends in oil prices, jobs, and home prices from 1980 to the present in the 100 largest metros and found that:
To read the full report, click here.