The president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies warns that 10-year bonds could drop below 2% within six months, and that quantitative easing could be brought back from the dead within a year.
Komal Sri-Kumar told CNBC that he thinks that despite the wishes of Federal Reserve hawks, QE could come back.
Five years after the beginning of the economic recovery, after rock-bottom interest rates and trillions of dollars of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the economy is growing about 2%.
The Fed announced in December it would start to reduce its monthly purchases of mortgage bonds and Treasurys, and has consistently cut by $10 billion with each FOMC meeting.
The program of quantitative easing has added $4.1 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet.
John B. Taylor, Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, said the trillions spent on quantitative easing have had no real impact on the economy or on job creation in testimony to Congress.
“Though the intention of the majority of those at the Fed in favor of the policies was to stimulate the economy, there is little evidence that the policy has helped economic growth or job growth. Growth has been less with the unconventional policies than the Fed originally forecast,” Taylor said.
“In the year since QE3 gained full steam at the end of 2012, interest rates on long-term Treasuries and mortgage backed securities have risen rather than fallen as was the intent of the policy. Before quantitative easing, from 2003 to 2008, the average spread between one year and ten year Treasury securities was 1.3%. During the three quantitative easing programs, from 2009 through 2013 the average spread was 2.4%. So it is very hard to establish that QE reduced spreads,” he said.