The nation’s domestic economic output for the first quarter was revised downward last week, posting a contraction of -1.0% from a meager positive 0.1% initially reported.
Wall Street shook it off. Just like it shook off the most recent home sales, pending sales and now construction spending reports.
Over at Against Crony Capitalism, they wonder if this is the new normal in investor thinking, the way housing investors think home prices are supposed to rise forever and always.
We just had an ugly quarterly number with the economy contracting (officially) for the first time in 3 years and yet the stock market is generally OK with the information.
Some think it’s because the market has bought the “it was a cold winter” argument. Which if one experienced the winter on the East Coast this year feels like it only ended a week ago. So there is some legitimate argument for this.
The official numbers will snap back with temperatures we are told. Marketplace on NPR last night dismissed the negative data with a “but economists expect a robust turn around this quarter.”
So all is well.
But there is something else driving the market higher and that is the assumption that the Federal Reserve simply will not let the market tank too badly. That If things go haywire again Yellen and her crew will step up their efforts and buy up the market if need be.
Investors had better hope that the next big economic dislocation isn’t “bigger than the Fed” as Jim Rickards thinks is likely.