Black Knight Financial Services released its latest home price index and it shows that home prices are now 14% off the June 2006 peak, but indications are for 3-4% growth nationwide in 2014.
Black Knight’s report, based on January 2014 residential real estate transactions, shows that California saw the largest year-over-year growth among the 20 largest states, while Cleveland saw the single biggest drop among metros.
Overall, the report points to an improving housing market that will see growth in the 3-4% range, a Black Knight analyst told HousingWire.
"In 2013, non-distressed transactions were up approximately 24% vs. 2012, while distressed transactions continued to make up a smaller share of overall sales – about 18% last year as compared to approximately 29% in 2012. This shift, along with the fact that prices moved up about 8% in 2013 indicate an improving housing market,” said Raj Dosaj, VP of Behavioral Models & HPI for Black Knight Financial Services.
“Prices going forward for 2014 should continue to grow, but at a more moderate pace than in 2013. Assuming there are no large economic shocks (including a larger than expected increase in interest rates), something in the 3-4% range can be expected for the year ahead,” Dosaj said. “When looking at just the last few months one has to be careful to properly account for seasonal effects. Many other HPIs – including some of the most closely followed indices – tend to overstate the impact of seasonality, making it hard to discern the fundamental patterns of home prices."
Notably in the report, Texas as a whole and several key Lon Star metros backed off their trend of consistent, consecutive gains.
"There are a number of local economic issues, including supply and demand, that could impact Texas property values. This could be a sign of the market pulling back a bit, as before this, Texas had been in a pattern of testing its all time highs in home prices. Clearly Texas has performed quite differently than most of the nation," Dosaj said.
The Black Knight index combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The index represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.
Below are the 10 metros with the biggest home price gains and biggest home price losses for January.
Source: Black Knight