A “pessimist” is what optimists call a realist, so what you think of what Michael Sincere writes about the market will depend on whether you believe what the financial pundits say when they exclaim things like “the economy is on the verge of reaching escape velocity” or some other tired, sunny-side cliché.
Sincere says he sees red flags everywhere and that the market is definitely at, or right around the corner from, its peak at least for this cycle.
“Can the market go higher? Sure, although the higher it goes, the more dangerous it becomes. Often, during the latter stages of a bull market, the market separates itself from reality and appears to be on another planet,” Sincere writes rather sincerely.
California’s housing market is a beast unto itself, and studying it can be like being the first explorer in an uncharted land: You’ve heard about some of the strange ways of these tribes, but you still can’t quite believe it’s real until they are performing the dance of their people before your eyes. Still, what you learn can be enlightening.
Dr. Housing Bubble is a great guide and he uses the backdrop of the Southern California housing market to illustrate some of the more confounding practices in the industry. His look this past week at whether housing policy amounts to price fixing by banks will have open-minded readers opening themselves to a different perspective.
It’s a running joke at this point how weak it sounds when every bit of bad economic data is blamed on the cold weather, because as we all have learned – data in almost all these reports is seasonally adjusted, and this was not the worst winter in a long time. That said, the always insightful Lance Roberts at STA Wealth Management takes a look at the effect of the weather on various indicators in “Housing: Is it really just the weather?” and his conclusion is that we may be closer to another recession than any of the cheerleaders in the mainstream media let on.
If you’re involved in an industry that involves selling homes, it may be helpful to tell prospects that buying is now 38% cheaper than renting. HousingWire has covered this extensively, but a new article at Forbes backs up what we’ve been telling you for the last few months.
This isn’t new but there's so much to love on most anything from Ambrose-Evans Pritchard, and his take on whether half the world economy is one accident away from a deflation trap is something you'll still be pondering weeks after you finish.
Finally, it can’t be said enough – read Tyler Durden over at Zero Hedge as often as possible. He covers so much ground, so well and without any signs of fatigue. It’s a favor to yourself.