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Texas will need 10.5 million new housing units by 2050

Lone Star State projected to add 30 million residents

Texas will add twice as many people in the next 40 years as it did in the previous 40, a study from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University revealed. This prediction is especially positive for homebuilders, real estate agents and property managers.

“Texas is projected to add around 30 million residents, an increase of nearly 120%, over the next four decades,” said Jim Gaines, research economist with the Real Estate Center in the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University. “This will severely impact the need for new housing and a slew of other goods and services.”

By estimating an average of 2.849 people per household, Gaines predicts 10.5 million new housing units will be needed over this time period.

“No place in Texas will grow more than the big cities,” he said. “The long-term outlook calls for the ongoing urbanization of the state.”

The Dallas-Fort Worth Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area is expected to grow to nearly 16.8 million in 2050, an increase of 163% from 2010.

The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown San Marcos MSA is projected to expand to more than 14.9 million, a growth rate of more than 143%.

Expectations have Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA more than tripling to more than 5.3 million by 2050, while the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA’s population will hit 2.4 million, double the number in 2010.

Rich Thomas, CEO of the MetroTex Association of Realtors, said he is not surprised by these predictions based on the rate of people coming into the state.

Thomas noted that real estate agents regularly tell him the relocation market has come back and is strong. Many corporations are moving to the areas, said Thomas, and individuals are relocating here because they’ve obtained a job or realize the job market here is pretty strong.

“We have such a diverse industry that people can come from virtually any kind of job opportunity and have places to work,” he said.

“In the kind of crash that happened in ‘08 and ‘09, we just didn’t crash like much of the coast did,” said Thomas. “We’ve come back pretty strongly,” he added.

In 2010, more than 64% of the Texas population lived in one of the four major metros. However, by 2050, nearly three-quarters of all Texas will reside there.

As metros begin to expand, more and more neighborhoods may be considered part of these four largest metros by 2050.

Thomas noted that some of this growth will certainly come from the smaller towns in Texas, but then again, there is a large number of retiring baby boomers going out a couple of levels, maybe past the second ring of suburbs, although they will still be deemed residents of those suburbs.

As these metros continue to expand, Thomas added that propositions linked to water and transportation will need to improve in order to maintain the quality of life for the growing number of residents in these markets.

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