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The Federal Reserve extensive purchasing of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage bonds looks to be distorting Treasury yields, according to an economic outlook report from Deutsche Bank ($48.45 1.79%).
The analysts add that other central banks are also purchasing large portions of this debt, along with financial debt issues by the ECB. This is making Treasury yields crater in just two-years time. (See chart below.)
The good news is Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to strength as Europe continues to languish. This is dependent on policymakers dealing adequately with the fiscal cliff.
The project, if the country does not breach those debt triggers, is US growth at 2.1% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013. GDP is predicted to be 3.1% in 2014 at 3.1%.