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The recent splurge of potential nominee predictions to succeed current acting director Ed DeMarco of the Federal Housing Finance Agency seems to be the newest guessing-game trend in the industry.
"DeMarco’s successor may reopen the principal forgiveness discussion, significantly increasing the probability of those modifications in agency MBS," write the analysts.
The investment firm called for a new acting director to be named no later than the second quarter of 2013.
This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that they heard through the White House grapevine that preparations to nominate a new director to oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would begin as soon as early next year.
The Wall Street Journal’s list featured similar academia nominees as well as a few persons from the Treasury who seemed like the best fit for a candidacy.
Compass Point Research threw in its two cents and is casting its vote for Ginnie Mae president Ted Tozer, a potential replacement also noted by Deutsche Bank.
"We believe Tozer is easily Senate confirmable given his industry experience and time at Ginnie Mae. In terms of impact, we believe that Tozer is unlikely to represent a marked change to the FHFA’s existing foreclosure mitigation policy," the analysts stated.
While Tozer brings various potential frameworks shifts to the table – a likely extension of the current Home Affordable Refinance Program deadline beyond December – it’s the not the policy shifting head that an academic could bring to the table.
Tozer doesn’t seem like he would "embrace principal reduction through the Home Affordable Modification Program," which is a similar stance to DeMarco.
If his nomination would be successful, however, Tozer could easily stare down any subsequent review process.
But this begs a bigger question: who could replace Tozer's successful tenure at Ginnie Mae?
I nominate Ed DeMarco for the job.