MacroMarkets survey says home prices will bottom in 2011
A majority of real estate experts interviewed for MacroMarkets' June Home Price Expectations Survey believe home prices will bottom in 2011. At the same time, most of the survey respondents expect home prices to grow at an abysmal 2% per year rate until 2015.
MacroMarkets interviewed 108 economists, real estate experts and key players in the investment community to complete its survey on housing trends.
About 69 interviewees said annual home price growth will remain in the 2% range on a per annual basis from now until 2015. A clear majority believe home prices hit their bottom in the first quarter or will reach that turning point by year-end.
"A 2% a year home price increase will not inspire a lot of consumer confidence," said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist. "Given prevailing inflation expectations, this forecast implies virtually no change in real home values going forward.”
Shiller added, "Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point.”
Analysts with Capital Economics also released a less-than-optimistic report this month, saying a lack of demand may keep home prices from a consistent rise until 2014.
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