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Investments

Dr. Doom starts New Year with less gloom

Nouriel Roubini sees smaller tail risk in global economy

January 3, 2014
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One of the economists credited for calling the collapse of the housing market in 2008 is finally, finally turning rosier on the globe's economic prospects.

That only took five years.

Nourial Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom for his often dire economic predictions, writes on the Project Syndicate website that he sees lower tail risks going into 2014.

"The good news is that economic performance will pick up modestly in both advanced economies and emerging markets," Roubini writes. It's a notable departure from his typical permabearishness. After all he did say around this time last year, his outlook for the global economy was "short-term bullish, long-term catastrophic."

In the U.S. a huge boost to household income will likely come from the energy industry, Nouriel predicts, more so in the shale asset class, where so much of the nation's natural gas is currently harvested. Also the manufacturing industry is in the process of "reshoring" and bringing more jobs home.

To be sure, Roubini is not completely shedding his dour persona.

"The downside risks result from political gridlock in Congress (particularly given the upcoming midterm election in November), which will continue to limit progress on long-term fiscal consolidation; a lack of clarity about the Federal Reserve's planned exit from quantitative easing and zero policy rates; and regulatory uncertainties," he writes.

Growth is growth, however, and still globally he concludes that the economic recovery will be somewhat anemic.  

The good news is, he thinks the U.S. is the one advanced economy that may be the exception to the rule, and could surprise to the upside.

And going back a little over a month to his previous post on the website, he noticeably left the United States housing market off the list of nations with a bubble outlook.

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