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Investments

Soc Gen credit strategists surprisingly upbeat on US growth

How bullish are they on job numbers? Very.

September 4, 2013
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The U.S. credit strategist at Société Générale, Ken Elgarten, revealed that his team is taking the high road on coming economic forecasts.

While everyone sees things slowing down and the Fed's expected tapering providing negative downward pressure on the secondary markets, Soc Gen is surprisingly upbeat about the nation's prospects. Syria and all.

"The trigger for a further spike in Treasury vol./rates is likely not tapering, but rather above consensus economic data, in our view," reads the email, "which likely will raise concerns that asset purchases may end even sooner."

SG economists are above consensus on second-half growth at 3.25%, they added.

The team states that recent strong manufacturing ISM data coupled with steadily declining initial jobless claims, will continue to drive to historical lows.

How bullish are they on job numbers? Very.

The street is betting on 162,000 positions being added to the payrolls in this Friday's report. Soc Gen is predicting more than 210,000 new jobs.

That's not to say there won't be rate volatility.

"An anticipated tapering announcement coupled with debt-ceiling talks should provide additional potential sources of volatility," they write, adding that such tapering could start sooner rather than later, boosting volatility even more.

"Rate sensitive sectors are apt to be first impacted once again," the team concluded.

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