Sixty-eight percent of commercial mortgage-backed securities loans that reached their balloon date in September paid off, creating the highest pay-off rate in four years, Trepp Analytics said Wednesday.
That pay-off rate is up almost 20 points from August and more than 40 points from July. The last time a payoff rate hit this level was in December 2008. And the last time, it exceeded 60% occurred in 2009.
Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, it was common for the monthly payoff rate to exceed 70% on CMBS loans, but the financial crisis derailed the market’s performance overall.
Trepp attributes improved payoff rates to more solid loans reaching their maturity dates. From now until the end of the year, the research firm expects to see more older vintages with better leverage and debt reaching their maturity dates.
“The make up of the underlying pool is clearly a consideration; loans from 2004 will have a much better chance of paying off on time than loans from 2007,” Trepp wrote. “However, recent turns in the CMBS market should make investors take a fresh look across the board. With new issue CMBS spreads back to levels that have not been seen in years, and with the Treasury curve near historic lows, more loans should be refinanceable now than at any time in the last four years.”
