Radar Logic Says Housing Market is Poised for Recovery
Residential real estate showed some signs of life in November, according to Radar Logic’s monthly Residential Property Index (RPX). November home sales volume increased year-over-year in all of the 25 metropolitan markets the RPX report covers. Sales volume increased 46.7% year-over-year and 1.5% month-over-month. Sales volume nearly doubled in Seattle and Philadelphia year-over-year. Las Vegas experienced an 88.4% increase. Sacramento experienced the lowest increase in sales volume at 7%, followed by San Diego (12.1%) and Los Angeles (18.2%) in the bottom three markets. “We believe that the housing market is poised for significant recovery,” said Radar Logic president and CEO Michael Feder. “Affordability measures are at their highest levels in years and home sales are moving toward normal levels. Nationwide, foreclosure sales have declined from 29% of total sales in November 2008 to 23% of sales in November 2009. These are positive forces that put the housing market in a strong position for growth in 2010.” Prices were up year-over-year in eight of the 25 markets surveyed, the most since July 2007, when the RPX price composite peaked. Radar Logic said increased affordability is helping boost prices, which currently sit at mid-2003 levels, as well as sales. California led all states with four of its five markets surveyed experiencing year-over-year price gains. Prices were up the most in San Diego, which experienced a 6.8% increase, followed by San Jose, Calif. (5.5%) and Denver (5.1%). Las Vegas had the worst year-over-year decline at 25.1%, followed by Detroit (21% decline) and Miami (19.7% decline.) “When you look at the seasonal pattern in the RPX Composite before the housing bust, you see that most of the seasonal declines occur by November,” said Radar Logic's director of research Quinn Eddins. “In light of this pattern, we do not expect seasonal factors to cause home prices to decline between now and the beginning of the 2010 buying season." "As most of the federal government's housing assistance programs are scheduled to continue through the end of the first quarter, we expect housing demand, and therefore housing prices, to remain stable until the beginning of the buying season. At that point seasonal strength should cause home prices to rise again," he added. Write to Austin Kilgore.