The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose at a faster clip than the 10-year Treasury rate during the course of this past month.
The market took Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech as a signal that the central bank is increasingly becoming confident that economic growth is on a more solid path.
“Therefore the markets quickly re-priced a much higher probability of Fed tapering QE,” said Ron D’Vari, CEO of NewOak.
He added, “The Fed’s programatic purchases of government-guaranteed MBS has kept the 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates artificially lower.”
However, the Fed’s bond-buying program impacted fixed-rate mortgages more than Treasurys.
For instance, the Freddie Mac 30-year FRM increased over 40 basis points whereas Treasurys moved up by 27 basis points over the same period.
“Considering the anticipated rise in home inventories, as indicated by the rise in new permits, as well as higher mortgage rates, we expect an easing tendency on home prices,” D’Vari explained.
He concluded, “The impact will be much more pronounced if the stock market re-pricing continues much longer causing consumer confidence deterioration. Collectively this may lead to the market re-evaluating how quickly Fed could afford to reverse QE.”
