Last year ended on a high note: originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages rose 49% in the fourth quarter of 2012 from the same period a year earlier.

This year, lenders are expected to originate $254 billion commercial and multifamily mortgages, an increase of 11% from last year, according to a forecast published Monday by the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group that represents the real estate finance industry.