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House Price Outlook Continues to Dim

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Based on today's report that found new home sales plunged to record lows in July housing analysts said they may have been too conservative in estimations in this case, but are keen not to make the mistake again. The just released August MacroMarkets home price expectations survey, compiled from 107 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists, is titled "Home Price Expectations Continue to Dim." The MacroMarkets index is assuming house price declines for the remainder of the year, with cumulative negative activity likely until 2012 and beyond. “For the third consecutive month, the consensus from the experts indicates weakened overall confidence in the U.S. housing recovery, with only 21% of our panelists now predicting positive growth in prices nationwide for 2010, and average expected cumulative price appreciation through 2014 falling almost one-third since our inaugural survey just three months ago,” said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist. Tomorrow's RadarLogic RPX Monthly Housing Report is also expected to be equally dire, according to analysts. The real estate data and analytics company tracks nonseasonally adjusted housing in 25 MSAs daily and given the lack of demand for sales, the ability of home prices to appreciate in that report is not anticipated. One researcher tells HousingWire that home prices will continue to be soft as new builds continue to deflate, and distressed properties go at steep discounts. Write to Jacob Gaffney.

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