Mortgage

This MBA homebuilder chart shows exactly what a sawtoothed recovery looks like

Uncanny similarities to Zillow home-price prediction

The Mortgage Banker Association’s Builder Application Survey Index was 23% higher in June 2015, as compared to a year ago. 

And for the first six months of 2015, the average year-over-year change was 19%, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. 

Despite the month-to-month changes, the dotted line in this MBA chart shows that the recent trend in growth is decidedly upwards. 

Take that with a grain of salt as the chart below shows just how sawtoothed the recovery is, not dissimilar to the prediction Zillow made on home prices three years ago.

MBA’s BAS tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of homebuilders across the country.

Click to enlarge

chart

Source: MBA

In similar news, privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,174,000, up 9.8% (±19.9%) above the revised May estimate of 1,069,000 and is 26.6% (±19.6%) above the June 2014 rate of 927,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Also, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reported Thursday that the housing market index stayed unchanged in July at 60, posting the strongest reading since November 2005.

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