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San Francisco boasts highest credit risk spread

Each market wields its own risk

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Every market bodes a different credit risk, and a new product from Collateral Analytics shows just how different each area can be.

The Credit Risk Model is designed to measure the losses due to borrower default on residential mortgages, and once compiled, the summary measure is the credit risk spread (CRS). This is the sum of the annual expected losses due to default, plus the cost of capital needed to insure against an extreme or stress scenario in house prices.

Then through all the calculations and numbers, it highlights variations in the CRS among metropolitan housing markets.

San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, Calif., tops the list with the highest credit risk spread. For a 95 LTV and 660 FICO, the city posted a 493 CRS.

Meanwhile, for a 50 LTV and 800 FICO, the city still recorded a 37 CRS. This is nearly three times greater than the national average for a 50/800 and slightly more than three times greater than the 95/660 national average.

On the other side of the spectrum, in Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich., the CRSs came in below the national averages.

The 50/800 posted a 6 CRS and the 95/660 reported a 60 CRS, with the national average 2.3 times and 2.6 times greater than the cities, respectively. 

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