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Here's the Philly Fed's economic prediction for the entire nation

U.S. coincident index expected to rise for remainder of year

Federal Reserve graphic

The leading indexes for all 50 states will rise over the next six months, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In its state leading indexes report for January 2014, the Philadelphia Fed predicts all 50 state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months.

The coincident indexes are based on four factors: employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average).

The report also suggests that the U.S. coincident index will grow by 1.3% over the next six months.

One state shows that is primed for the most growth. The coincident index in Michigan is expected to grow by at least 4.5%.

The Philadelphia Fed report singles out the three states in its district for a further breakdown. The leading index for Pennsylvania was 2.7 in January, up from 1.8 in December 2013. Initial unemployment claims fell, but building permits decreased. Overall, Pennsylvania’s leading index for January suggests an expansion in the state’s economy into the third quarter of 2014.

The leading index figure is lower in New Jersey but the state is also primed for growth. The leading index for New Jersey was 0.4 in January. Initial unemployment claims also fell in New Jersey, but building permits also decreased. New Jersey’s leading index for January also suggests an expansion in the state’s economy into the third quarter of 2014.

Delaware’s leading index was also up in January from December 2013, rising from 1.4 to 1.7. Initial unemployment claims fell in Delaware as well. But Delaware’s leading index for January suggests an expansion in the state’s economy in the third quarter of 2014 as well. 

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