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What We're Reading: The Good Friday edition
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Bad news: 4Q GDP tumbles 25% from initial estimate

Downward revision from 3.2% to 2.4% is worse than everyone thought

wounded economy
KEYWORDS BEA / Economy / GDP / Housing Market
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That "self-sustaining breakout" of the economy that has been on the horizon these last 60-plus months?

Not so much, it turns out. GDP growth in all of 2013 is now estimated as lower than 2012, and fourth-quarter GDP growth has been revised downward 25%.

As HousingWire has been warning, the economy is operating at stagnation levels and the slate of bad economic reports that have come down the pipe over the past several months are not outliers.

They are the new normal.

Now comes an adjustment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that revised the fourth-quarter GDP growth rate downward 25% – from 3.2% down to the stagnation level of 2.4%.

That further means that the GDP growth for all of 2013 was a mere 1.9%, which was lower than 2012′s 2.8%.

Consumer activity didn’t rebound as the U.S. Department of Commerce first estimated. Real gross domestic purchases climbed just 1.8% in the fourth quarter, and the growth outside of inventory expansion – that is, actual sales – rose just 2.3%, down from the initial 2.8%.

Offsetting this was an increase in the fixed investment estimate from 0.14% to 0.58%.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. 

By components, downward revisions were seen in personal component expenditures, inventory investment, net exports, and government purchases. Nonresidential fixed investment was revised up.
 

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