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Home price appreciation driven by investors: DBRS

Home prices are expected to continue to rise in 2013, especially with investors on the hunt for good buys, but the New Year is expected to bring at least a few drops in home values along the way, according to real estate analysts.

Analysts with DBRS released a report this week, saying home acquisitions by investors are likely to keep pushing home prices higher. But the company's latest report also says mass real estate consumption by investors could eventually lead to large capital gains, bringing ever increasing competition and then dampening yields at some point.

The end result of this would be a tapering off in investors' appetites for homes, leading to a dip in home prices in certain regions, DBRS said.

"And while large investors may continue to benefit even if housing prices continue to climb, homeownership will become an even more distant hope for many buyers if underwriting standards remain at their current levels," the DBRS report said.

John Dolan with Second Order Strategies Inc. reviews the S&P Case-Shiller futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to gauge the direction of home prices in the U.S. 

In the past six months, he noted that the market benefited from positive seasonal factors and an improving housing market, which led to higher prices. As the market turns into 2013, Dolan sees two conflicting factors in the first part of the year. Those factors include negative seasonal factors such as cold weather in several major markets in early 2013 and improving housing markets in others. Those conflicting factors may create some dips in prices, he suggested.

Still, for the entire year, Dolan said the "CME future prices are consistent with about a 5% increase from now to November 2013."

kpanchuk@housingwire.com

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