Credit Suisse: Quantitative easing and new reps and warrants to spur refinancings
The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its most important meeting of the year. By the end of the day, we will know if the Fed is going to attempt to stimulate the economy, and with what strategy.
Everyone is expecting a QE3 announcement that could have major implications not just in the markets but in a presidential race that has long centered around the status of the economy.
Credit Suisse (CS)told clients this morning, in a message more directed than its other investment bank counterparts, to expect a third-round of quantitative easing. They expect lower-coupon Fannie Mae bonds will be impacted greatly.
"We think FN 3s could have 15-20 tick upside if the FOMC announces a $500-600B MBS-focused QE on Thursday, as we expect," read the message from CS analyst Mahesh Swaminathan.
"Tuesday’s new representations and warranties framework announcement should broadly spur increased refi and purchase activity in 2013," he added. "Large bank mortgage servicing rights ranged from a modest H112 decline for Chase to modest increases for Wells Fargo and US Bancorp. Bank of America's servicing balances declined sharply. We like generics (pools paying mid-20s CPR) and HLBs over lower LTV (80-90 LTV) MHA pools in 2011 vintage 4s and 4.5s."
Deutsche Bank () and Goldman Sachs (GS) economists also said last week the Federal Reserve can still significantly boost the economy with an extra round of quantitative easing, though each was not as clear as CS with their expectations.