Archive for December, 2011
The outlook for U.S. real estate investment trusts in 2012 is uncertain, with Fitch Ratings waiting to see what happens to the overall economy.
Analysts said credit trends have been steady for two years, but next year could usher in a revised outlook on domestic REITs. The direction those changes take remains largely unknown.
"If macro trends improve and operating fundamentals and capital markets access remains strong, Fitch may revise the outlook for equity REITs to positive," the ratings agency said. "Conversely, Fitch may revise the outlook for equity REITs to negative if the economy slides back into recession and REITs begin to add on more leverage."
The outlook for companies depends largely on tenant growth in 2012. Fitch expects growth in this area to remain somewhat subdued, but still projects solid liquidity for REITs.
A major trend that could emerge, according to Fitch, is a willingness on the part of the firms to engage in more mergers and acquisitions with asset prices below peak values in key markets.
One area that will continue to see positive trends is the multifamily sector, according to Fitch. REITs may experience challenges if they focus too much on the suburban office and industrial sectors, which continue to struggle with same-store operating income.
Write to Kerri Panchuk.
Tags: equities, Fitch Ratings, industrial sector, overall economy, real-estate investment trusts, REITS, suburban office
Posted in Secondary Market/Investors, Top Stories | No Comments »
Residential mortgage debt and household debt declined during the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve.
Home mortgage debt fell at an annual rate of 1 3⁄4% in the third quarter, slightly less of a decline than in the first half of the year, according to the Fed's massive flow of funds report.
Real estate held by households fell in value by $98.3 billion, down less than 1%. The report showed households had 38.7% of their equity in their homes, down just slightly from 38.8% in 2Q, but down more than 30% from the 2006 housing peak.
Household debt continue its contraction that began in the third quarter of 2008 with a decline of 1 1⁄4% in 3Q over the previous quarter.
Household net worth — the difference between the value of assets and liabilities — was $57.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter, down 4.1% or $2.4 trillion less than at the end of 2Q. Declines in the value of stocks and mutual funds was partly to blame.
The report showed nonfinancial business debt rose at an annual rate of 3 1⁄2% in the third quarter, 1 percentage point slower than 2Q. Corporate bonds outstanding and business loans increased while commercial mortgage debt continued to decline.
Write to Kerry Curry.
Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.
Tags: Federal Reserve, household debt, household net worth, real estate, Residential mortgage debt
Posted in Secondary Market/Investors, Top Stories | 1 Comment »
Legislation introduced in the Senate Thursday would wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac within 10 years and turn over the remnants to the private sector.
The Mortgage Finance Act of 2011, sponsored by Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., would also pay back taxpayers the funds used to place the two entities into conservatorship.
Isakson, himself a former real estate broker, said the bill would change the current course of taxpayers "bailing out the mortgage industry to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars."
"My bill would shut down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through an orderly transition, and it will repay the taxpayers," Isakson said in a release. "I invite my colleagues in Congress, both Democrat and Republican, to move this bill forward to strengthen our nation's housing finance system and our nation's economy."
If the bill becomes law, the two government-sponsored entities would be placed in receivership within 18 months and rebranded the Mortgage Finance Agency.
The agency would charge "guarantee fees" on issuers of qualified mortgage-backed securities. Those fees would be used to fund the agency and a catastrophic fund to cover any losses.
The board of the new agency would draw up a plan within three years on how to go private. The plan would take effect within five years and privatization within 10 years, and sale proceeds would go to the general fund of the Treasury Department.
The bill also includes a provision to lower the required down payment to 5% on a qualified single-family residential mortgage. A proposal issued in March would require at least 20% down from the borrower on such mortgages.
Isakson, along with Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), wrote a letter in June asking regulators to scale back the rule. The three drafted the section of the Dodd-Frank Act that requires a risk-retention rule.
Regulators continue their work on the rule. Online lending exchange LendingTree reported Thursday that no state averages at least 20% down on mortgages.
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Follow him on Twitter @ascoggin.
Tags: Dodd-Frank Act, Fannie Mae, freddie mac, MBS, Mortgage Finance Act of 2011, mortgage-backed securities, qualified residential mortgage, RMBS, Sen. Johnny Isakson
Posted in Secondary Market/Investors, Top Stories | 3 Comments »
[Update 1: Removes Freddie Mac reference. Freddie Mac is not a party]
The Maine Supreme Court refused to overturn a lower court's decision not to hold GMAC in contempt for employees robo-signing foreclosure affidavits.
The plaintiff in the case, Nicolle Bradbury, initially sued Fannie Mae after financial institutions associated with the GSE launched foreclosure proceedings against her. Bradbury claimed that GMAC, a servicer listed on the loan, had one employee, Jeffrey Stephan, who acted in bad faith by failing to review exhibits tied to foreclosure affidavits and for not executing the affidavits before a notary.
Bradbury claimed Fannie and GMAC violated a Maine Rule of Civil Procedure because the robo-signed affidavits presented by Stephan were presented in bad faith. Bradbury sought contempt holdings for the GSE and GMAC.
A lower court concluded that Stephan's affidavit was submitted in bad faith and ordered Fannie Mae to pay Bradbury's court costs and attorney fees.
However, Bradbury appealed the final decision to the Maine Supreme Court after the lower court declined to explore a holding of contempt for the servicer, GMAC. Essentially, Bradbury felt GMAC also should be sanctioned for Stephan's alleged bad faith handling of the documents.
Maine's highest court declined the motion, holding that "even if we assume that the language of Rule 56(g) allows any party — and not just Fannie Mae as the party who submitted the affidavit to the court — to be held in contempt, we decline to hold that the court exceeded its discretion in declining to specifically find GMAC in contempt when it fashioned the sanction."
Write to Kerri Panchuk.
Tags: affidavits, contempt, Fannie Mae, foreclosure, freddie mac, GMAC, government-sponsored enterprise, GSE, Maine Supreme Court, robo-signing
Posted in Servicing/Default, Top Stories | No Comments »
The Mortgage Bankers Association doesn't want to see any changes to the mortgage servicing compensation.
In a letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the trade group said no one has made a compelling case for why the current model needs to be tweaked. MBA President and CEO David Stevens said the group agrees with the government that there is a need for improvements for all participants of the mortgage underwriting and securitization processes.
"However, we believe that any change to the current servicing compensation model is unnecessary to accomplish these goals," he said.
In late September, the FHFA proposed two mortgage servicing compensation models.
The MBA believes dramatically changing residential servicing, origination, and secondary market operations serves no one, claiming "radical changes in any of the major structures underlying the existing TBA market could reduce liquidity in the TBA."
"The world of residential mortgage servicing has undergone unprecedented stress over the course of the economic downturn," Stevens said. "The current servicer compensation model is still the best approach and making radical changes, like the proposed 'fee for service,' will have dramatic impacts not just on originators, servicers and investors, but also on borrowers in both the costs they pay to get a mortgage and the support they receive from their servicers."
The MBA prefers a cash reserve structure, which calls for deferring some existing fees to cover servicing costs for "catastrophic economic and default situations."
Write to Jason Philyaw.
Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw.
Tags: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage servicing compensation, securitization
Posted in Origination/Lending, Top Stories | No Comments »
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may struggle to keep up with investor demand for mortgage bonds in 2012, according to Deutsche Bank (DB: 44.44 +2.40%) secondary market analyst Steven Abrahams.
"Policy drove excess supply last year when the Fed continued to allow its MBS to run off and then reinvested principal in Treasury debt," he said in a note to clients. "Demand should exceed supply in agency MBS next year, with policy driving the balance just as it has every year since 2008."
Abrahams went on to elaborate on Fed policy, saying the central bank reversed its Treasury purchase policy earlier this year and spreads on related agency mortgage-backed securities tightened 20 to 25 basis points.
The next round of Fed stimulus to the secondary markets is expected by the middle of next year. If so, it would be the third time such quantitative easing happened in as many years.
"Although the market arguably has already priced in 10 bp to 15 bp of MBS tightening in expectation of QE3, the actual announcement and the likely remaining tightening still should mark another MBS performance turning point next year," Abrahams added.
Write to Jacob Gaffney.
Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.
Tags: agency bonds, deutsche bank, Fannie Mae, freddie mac, MBS, QE3, Treasury
Posted in Secondary Market/Investors, Top Stories | No Comments »
After examining the average down payment a borrower puts on a home to qualify for a mortgage, online lending exchange LendingTree is reporting no state averages at least 20% down. This means that under the qualified residential mortgage initiative, many of the most-recent originated home loans would not qualify for exemption from risk retention.
The rule, mandated under the Dodd-Frank Act, requires lenders to retain 5% of the credit risk on mortgages pooled into securities. This is meant to act as a skin-in-the-game hedge, reducing the chance an issuer will originate risky mortgages. However, a loan classified as a QRM would not require lenders to maintain the risk on a mortgage after securitization if the borrower puts 20% down and other requirements are met.
In theory, QRMs make it less likely that the borrower will walk away from the loan because of the greater risks associated with the large down payment. This makes it unnecessary for banks to hold the 5% credit risk, something many trade groups claim is too strict.
Federal regulators are still working on the risk-retention rule after issuing the proposal in April.
Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, a trade group that advocates for private mortgage insurers, says the 20% down payment rule erases the potential for borrowers to enter the market with lower down payments and the backing of mortgage insurance. With appropriate insurance, private mortgage insurers claim as little as 3% down should be enough for a QRM.
In August, MICA released its recommendations on how the proposed QRM rule should be drafted to include private mortgage insurance as an exception to a rigid 20% down payment.
"If federal regulators were to adopt the proposed 20% down payment requirement, a majority of borrowers wouldn’t be able to meet the standard given the findings in this report," said Doug Lebda, founder and CEO of LendingTree.
"The proposed rule is part of a larger set of requirements that would exempt qualified borrowers from risk-retention requirements and would have access to the lowest rates available," Lebda said. "While this rule has yet to be put into effect, borrowers should be aware of the possibility and plan for future home loan needs."
New Jersey leads the country with the highest average down payment of 13.76%. The state with the lowest average down payment is North Dakota, where buyers put down an average of 11.37%. Click on chart to see all the average for each state.
Write to Justin T. Hilley.
Follow him on Twitter @JustinHilley.
Tags: Dodd-Frank Act, Lending Tree, MICA, Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, QRM, qualified residential mortgage
Posted in Origination/Lending, Top Stories | No Comments »
President Obama said Thursday the Senate's denial of Richard Cordray to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau "makes absolutely no sense" and his administration is "not giving up" on his nomination.
The Senate voted 53-45 Thursday morning to bring an up-or-down vote on Cordray, falling short of the 60 votes needed to break a Republican filibuster.
"We are going to keep at it," Obama said. "We are not going to allow politics as usual on Capitol Hill to stand in the way of American consumers being protected by unscrupulous financial operators."
Obama nominated Cordray in July, shortly after the CFPB opened. Cordray, who served as attorney general of Ohio, received support from 37 AGs.
The CFPB expressed displeasure at the development.
"I am disappointed the Senate did not vote to end debate on Richard Cordray’s nomination to be Director of the CFPB," said Raj Date, who serves as a special CFPB adviser to the Treasury.
"The CFPB is already hard at work, helping to fix broken consumer financial markets," he added. "But without a director, we are only able to supervise banks, not any of the nonbank companies that were responsible for many of the most problematic products and practices leading up to the financial crisis."
Republicans have expressed other plans for the bureau, and argue that it needs more than one leader. Recently legislation passed a House committee to establish a five-member committee to head the CFPB.
Obama said poor regulation "was part of the reason we got into the financial mess that we did."
"People were not paying attention to what has happening in the housing market," he said. "People weren't paying attention to who was being taken advantage of. There were folks who were making a lot of money taking advantage of American consumers."
Write to Andrew Scoggin.
Follow him on Twitter @ascoggin.
Tags: Barack Obama, CFPB, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, consumer protection, House of Representatives, President Obama, Senate
Posted in Origination/Lending, Slider, Top Stories | 1 Comment »
The Arizona and U.S. economies will improve next year, but full recovery is still a few years away, according to an economic forecast forum held Wednedsay at Arizona State University.
"Although the Arizona recovery is tepid at best, every key indicator is expected to improve in 2012 as compared to 2011, including jobs, incomes, sales and even housing," said Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the ASU W.P. Carey School of Business.
It's been a tough few years for Arizona. The state lost 324,000 jobs from 2007 through 2010. By the end of 2011, only about 20% of jobs have been restored. However, Arizona moved from No. 49 among the states for job creation in 2010 to the top 10 growth state this year. It added nearly 23,800 jobs this year.
Arizona employment is expected to increase by 45,000 jobs in 2012, but the state still has a 9% unemployment rate, which economists predict will drop to 8.5% next year. Continued population growth should also help the state rebound.
McPheters expects Arizona's population to grow by 1.5% in 2012, faster than the national average of about 1%, spurring housing demand. He predicts 20% growth in single-family housing permits.
But the growth predictions can be misleading, said Elliott Pollack, president of economic and real estate consulting firm Elliott D. Pollack and Co.
"(Housing) permits have bottomed out, but they are still down 89% from the peak," Pollack said. "About 50,000 to 55,000 excess housing units remain in the greater Phoenix area."
Foreclosures and short sales have been dragging down existing-home prices, as well.
In the third quarter, 25% of existing-home transactions were foreclosures, and another 29% were short sales. Also, more than 40% of the homes being sold are going to investors and other non-owner occupants.
"On the positive side, the number of units going into foreclosure is declining, and housing prices appear to have stabilized," Pollack said.
At the national level, many economists expect 2012 GDP growth of between just under 2% and 3%.
Anthony Chan, chief economist for private wealth management at JPMorgan Chase, said the economic upheaval of the past few years has made many stocks a bargain.
"We currently face oversized volatility and uncertainty," Chan said. "For this reason, we believe stocks are attractively priced from a historic perspective."
Chan added corporations are sitting on "huge amounts of cash," while paying out low dividends. When business sentiment improves and uncertainty is reduced, he expects faster employment and economic growth.
Write to Kerri Panchuk.
Tags: Arizona State University W.P. Carey School of Business, economy, Elliott D. Pollack and Co., existing home sales, foreclosure, housing, jobs, JPMorgan Chase, short sales
Posted in Origination/Lending, Top Stories | No Comments »
Higher origination volumes caused profits to increase at independent mortgage banks for the three months ended Sept. 30, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.
The trade group said its third-quarter Mortgage Bankers Performance Report showed average profit at independent mortgage banks rose to $1,263 per loan in the most recent period from $575 in the second quarter.
Higher sales volumes offset high production costs, causing the cost of origination to decline as it was spread out across a larger number of loans, said Marina Walsh MBA associate vice president of industry analysis.
The same period brought an increase in secondary marketing earnings, with income from that segment rising to $4,563 in the third quarter from $4,006 per loan in the second quarter.
Average production volume soared from $174 million per company, or 866 loans per firm, to $237 million per bank, or 1,114 loans.
Even as the industry increased its volume, sound underwriting remained a key characteristic with the average borrower FICO score rising to 734 from 729 in the second quarter.
While production expenses for loans fell from the second quarter, total production operating expenses remain high. Those expenses, which include commissions, compensation, occupancy and equipment, fell to $5,315 per loan in the third quarter, slightly down from $5,644 the prior quarter.
Write to Kerri Panchuk.
Tags: FICO, higher origination volumes, independent mortgage banks, MBA, Mortgage Bankers Association
Posted in Origination/Lending, Top Stories | No Comments »













