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Archive for December, 2011

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

[Update 1: Adds comment from NAR that rebenchmarking is a normal process for NAR.]

The National Association of Realtors will revise its existing home sales figures downward dating back to 2007. It said new figures would be released Dec. 21.

The expected revision has been awaited since February when analytics firm CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.56 +0.62%) challenged NAR on its numbers, suggesting they were far too rosy.

In a media advisory issued this week in advance of the revision, NAR said its own index drifted upward from the actual marketplace starting in 2007.

The trade group said that rebenchmarking is a normal process for NAR — all data series go through periodic rebenchmarking. It said the revisions did not come about because of CoreLogic's belief that the NAR numbers were overstated.

The group attributed the overstatement in home sales to shifts in population, duplicate listings and a decline in for-sale-by-owner transactions.

The revisions come after consultation with outside groups, including the Federal Reserve, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Home Builders and CoreLogic.

CoreLogic said in February that NAR overestimated 2010 sales by at least 15%. (Click on chart to expand.)

NAR will also release November existing-home sales data, on Dec. 21.

Write to Andrew Scoggin.

Follow him on Twitter @ascoggin.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

A mortgage servicer may be granted a waiver from future claims depending on what sort of remediation a borrower gets from the foreclosure reviews conducted under federal consent orders.

Independent consultants, approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve, will review nearly 4.5 million foreclosure files over the next several months. They will be looking for any harm caused by improper practices uncovered last year.

The OCC, Federal Reserve and the 14 largest servicers are working out how to pay for any borrower claims for which consultants find the banks culpable. OCC Chief Counsel Julie Williams faced down skeptical lawmakers in a Senate subcommittee hearing Tuesday, pledging the consultants were independent and that the reviews would be thorough.

But she also revealed in some instances, they would be final. In some cases, a borrower would not be able to bring future claims against the servicer if he or she takes the payout.

"There could be situations where it may be sensible where a servicer gets a waiver. If the borrower gets the home back, expenses paid, maybe a lump sum payment on top of that, for a package of remediation like that, a waiver would be appropriate," Williams said, adding that borrowers would be able to make that decision before agreeing to the deal.

A mailing campaign began Nov. 1. Borrowers who went through the foreclosure process at some point in 2009 or 2010 are eligible to apply by April.

It's still unknown how any borrowers affected by the problems will be paid. The OCC provided 22 examples for what would constitute a "financial injury" (found on page 13 of Williams' testimony).

But on the form filled out during the claims process, borrowers will have other options.

"The way the form is designed is it clusters some specific questions around the injury guidance," Williams said. "But there is a portion of the form where the borrower can tell their story. What we want is the borrower to tell their story for how they were injured, and we will certainly try to get the message out about those."

Anthony Sanders, a professor of finance at George Mason University, was concerned about the cost and time spent during the reviews, which may not net very many actual claims. He estimates the reviews will cost more than $11 billion if costs $2,500 per loan file. He said he expects less than 100 instances of wrongful foreclosures on military members and less than 50,000 modification errors would be found.

"In terms of technical errors (such as robo-signing), it is difficult forecast how many there will be, but technical errors like robo-signing should not result in any financial harm to borrowers since they would be foreclosed upon after the documentation error is corrected," Sanders said in testimony.

It is still up in the air how borrowers would be compensated for robo-signing, the term used to describe how servicers and their third-party firms signed foreclosure affidavits en masse without review of the loan documentation.

According to Williams' testimony, one of the examples of financial harm would be when "the servicer was not the proper party, or authorized to act on behalf of the proper party, under the applicable state law to foreclose on the borrower’s home, and this resulted in or may result in multiple foreclosure actions or proceedings."

Konrad Alt is the managing director for Promontory Financial Group, which is conducting the reviews for Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.60 +1.89%) and Bank of America (BAC: 7.29 -0.14%). He said they are still waiting on direction from the OCC on whether robo-signing would result in a pay out to the borrower.

"Many things can go wrong with a mortgage or a foreclosure, and reviewing a particular file to ascertain what if anything did go wrong can be both difficult and time consuming," Alt said.

The OCC did not disclose any past history between the consultants and the servicers but Williams did assure the subcommittee it caught any conflicts of interest. The Fed has not released engagement letters, yet.

Chief Counsel Scott Alvarez said in written testimony he expects the Fed "to disclose significant portions of the final engagement letters, consistent with the need to protect proprietary financial information and personal privacy."

"We believe we are independent," Alt said. "Our entire business model is based on independence not only in this instance but in all instances. If we fall short in this manner it would be fundamentally detrimental to our long-term success."

Lawmakers on the subcommittee were not convinced the reviews will be transparent nor fair enough. Foreclosures will continue for those borrowers still in the process while being considered for remediation, and some senators were concerned the servicers were given too much room when choosing the consultants.

"The last thing homeowners need after so many challenges is one more process where there's not full and accurate disclosure. The failure to stop the foreclosure process while saying there may be a remedy is a continuation of this," said Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore. "It's disturbing."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Three former executives of Washington Mutual Inc agreed to a $64 million settlement to resolve a government lawsuit over their role in the biggest bank failure in U.S. history.

The settlement, announced by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp officials on Tuesday, is part of efforts by the agency to sue former banking executives to recover funds from a rash of bank closures.

But the Washington Mutual settlement will largely be paid out of the company's remaining professional liability insurance, not out of the executives' own pockets.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

[[Editor's Note: This article has been removed from the HousingWire website after Fitch Ratings, the source of the information, sought redaction of the content it provided, expressing concern about the validity of its time line of how long properties stay in REO before being sold.]]

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its zero-interest rate monetary policy, and said it will continue buying long-term Treasury bonds and reinvesting maturing mortgage-backed securities back into agency MBS.

The central bank said the unemployment rate remains elevated and business investment is happening slower than previously anticipated. Committee members said the housing sector remains depressed, while inflation has moderated since earlier in 2011. The FOMC expects inflation to settle somewhat over the coming quarters.

Still, the ongoing debt crises in Europe continue to weigh on the U.S. economic recovery.

"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook," according to the FOMC.

Once again, the Fed said the U.S. economy continues to expand moderately, "notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth."

The federal funds rate has been 0% to 0.25% since December 2008. And the FOMC reiterated its belief that "economic conditions — including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run — are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013."

Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, cast the lone dissenting vote following this week's FOMC meeting. Evans supports "additional policy accommodation at this time."

In September, the FOMC announced plans to buy $400 billion of Treasury bonds in an effort to lower long-term borrowing costs.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

So you want to walk away from your mortgage even though you can afford it? After all, it makes perfect sense: You were sold a predatory loan on a house sure to lose value.

The real question is not if, but when.

And now that you've read the latest piece from the storied financial writer for The New Yorker, James Surowiecki, you figure you should stick it to your lender.

It's payback time.

But wait! Here are some extras for potential strategic defaulters to consider. Most things Surowiecki writes are true. The Mortgage Bankers Association did do a short sale of its commercial space. While there are several apples to oranges issues with not only comparing residential to commercial real estate markets and defaults to short sales, Surowiecki is correct.

But what about this? "Homeowners are getting lambasted for doing what companies do on a regular basis."

Who exactly is sacrificing these homeowners, and at who's altar? Last I checked, vox populi is firmly not in the mortgage banker's domain.

Nonetheless, Surowiecki also calls homeowners who do not strategically default irrational. So either way, in Surowiecki's eyes, the negative-equity homeowner is in the crosshairs of someone.

You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

So, thanks for the advice James, we'll take it.

OK, we've walked away from that mortgage. Feels good.

It should, you owed $400,000 on a $200,000 home. The problem is, you didn't walk away from your mortgage. You walked away from the collateral.

You still owe the money, minus the collateral, plus interest. You have time, to be sure, as the bank won't go after you until it sorts out the property. Could be years. And the good news is they'll try to get as much as possible for the property.

The bad news is, in some cases, they won't try to collect the remaining debt. Instead, the lender may sell your debt for pennies on the dollar to a specialty servicer. Some specialty mortgage servicers are sweet and sympathetic, others are harsh and hawking. Either way, they don't tend to give up easily.

But there's more you should know.

Thanks to credit scoring, the debt follows you. Not only will you not get a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgage for at least seven years, try buying a car.

Also, you make it harder for everyone else, too.

"All consumers, including the majority of homeowners who faithfully pay their mortgages, would suffer from such an outcome," FICO credit risk analyst Joanne Gaskin wrote in a blog post back in May. "More defaults create more foreclosures, which depress housing prices and consumer confidence, which affect spending and hiring … a downward economic spiral."

If strategic defaults hit levels of concern, past the 25% mark, say, lending will slow further. Mortgage origination will grind even closer to a halt.

As it stands, lenders have yet to get nasty toward strategic defaulters. And this can change either way. Banks may stop behaving like banks and let you walk away from the debt. Or the politicians may come to your aid and pass protective laws.

The point is this, strategic default is a highly risky move. It can not be argued into a national rationale using corporate behavior as a backstop, an excuse, or worse yet, a motivation.

And all sides should be presented, and all potential repercussions understood, before moving forward with a national, blanket strategic default strategy.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Even if home prices and household leverage stabilize next year, mortgage debt outstanding will continue to contract over the next several years because of high credit losses, according to analysts at financial services firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

"Given the high delinquency rates, large discounts in private label securities prices and large provisions already taken by banks, in our view it is clear that a meaningful percentage of loans will default and not be replaced by new loans as the homeownership rate continues to contract," the analysts say. "This trend is likely to result in mortgage debt outstanding continuing to decline over the next several years."

Mortgage debt, which reflects the unpaid principal balance of debt owed by borrowers, grew double digits from 2004 to 2006. But then the housing bubble popped, leading mortgage debt to decline 1% in 2008, 1.9% in 2009, 3% in 2010 and 1.9% through the first three quarters of 2011.

The dropping debt levels were due to tumbling home prices, decreased leverage and a falling homeownership rate, which historically all move in the reverse.

Analysts expect the negative trends to cause mortgage debt to decline 1 to 2% in 2012.

KBW analyst also said mortgage volume, because of slowing refinancing activity, will drive mortgage volume down 10% to $1.1 trillion in 2012 from $1.2 trillion in 2011.

Organic refinancing will wane in the first half of 2012 and be offset by a pick-up in mortgage volume stemming from the revised Home Affordable Refinance Program.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is targeting about 1 million borrowers for HARP 2.0 through the end of 2013, which KBW analysts believe is a reasonable goal. This equates to about $150-200 billion of incremental origination volume, of which about $75 billion will flow through in 2012.

"As is the case in 2011, we believe 2012 volume will largely flow through the government-sponsored enterprise or Federal Housing Administration channels," the analysts say.

Write to Justin T. Hilley.

Follow him on Twitter @JustinHilley.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Small businesses grew more confident again in November, though optimism remains well below the pre-recession average.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported an increase to 92 in its optimism index, up from 90.8 in October. That's still lower than the 100 score the index averaged before 2008.

November marked the third straight month of a higher reading and the index is far above March 2009's reading of 81, the second-lowest score in the 35-year history of the index. November's reading, however, is lower than the 94.1 in January, "not exactly progress over the year" according to the report.

About 21% of small businesses owners reported higher sales over the last three months, while 29% reported lower sales. Most contributed numbers prior to Black Friday, according to the survey.

Owners remained pessimistic on better business conditions in the next six months. About 29% expect conditions to worsen while 12% expect them to improve.

Employment improved slightly in November after five months of decay as small business owners reported an increase of 0.12 workers per firm last month. About 13% added employees, while 11% cut staff. Plans for future hires had its strongest reading in more than three years, with about 7% of owners looking to add workers in the next three months.

The economy "is slowing righting itself," the report said, and the upcoming election will likely clarify the direction of the industry. The report said excess assets, such as retail stores and restaurants, created during the housing bubble "continue to be a drag, but less so."

The monthly survey received responses from 781 randomly sampled businesses throughout November.

Write to Andrew Scoggin.

Follow him on Twitter @ascoggin.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.56 +2.26%) said Tuesday that it has reached a comprehensive settlement with MBIA (MBI: 12.18 +1.50%) over credit default swaps that better positions the firm for Basel III compliance by resolving outstanding legacy exposures.

The investment bank said its litigation against MBIA would be dropped for consideration of an undisclosed cash payment. The deal terminates all outstanding CDS protection that Morgan Stanley bought from MBIA.

Morgan Stanley said it would take a pre-tax loss on the settlement of approximately $1.8 billion ($1.2 billion after tax) and said the settlement will result in an estimated 75 basis point increase in pro forma Tier 1 common ratio under Basel III.

"We are pleased Morgan Stanley and MBIA have resolved this matter and applaud their willingness to find common ground allowing both firms to put the time-consuming and expensive litigation behind them," said Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky with the New York State Banking Department.

"This settlement is good for Morgan Stanley, good for MBIA and good for the markets and our financial system, allowing firms to move forward and rebuild. With HSBC (HBC: 42.59 +0.97%) also settling this week, there are only five firms remaining in a litigation that began with 18," he added.

Lawsky said the department will continue to work closely with the remaining firms and MBIA to resolve outstanding issues.

Under the deal, MBIA will withdraw its residential mortgage-backed securities lawsuit against Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley will withdraw from suits challenging MBIA restructuring.

The settlement "has the effect of significantly reducing risk-weighted assets and releasing the equivalent of approximately $5 billion of capital under the Basel Committee's proposed Basel III framework," Morgan Stanley said in a statement.

"It's critical that we reposition for the new regulatory environment and do so quickly," said James Gorman, Morgan Stanley CEO. "A top priority for 2011 was to address this large outstanding legacy exposure and this settlement is consistent with our efforts to build capital and de-risk the balance sheet."

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Federal Housing Finance Agency Inspector General Steve Linick is concerned nothing will be done in time to fix executive bonuses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for next year.

The FHFA approved nearly $13 million in performance bonuses for the top 10 executives at the government-sponsored enterprises in 2010. Congress grilled the CEOs and FHFA Acting Director Edward DeMarco on two occasions over the issue, which was approved more than one year ago.

Lawmakers were stunned to learn about the payouts considering Fannie and Freddie still owe the Treasury Department roughly $151 billion in bailouts. DeMarco and the leaders of both firms said they face a serious problem attracting and retaining the talent necessary to manage the largest mortgage portfolios in the country.

A recent report from Linick's office however found the FHFA did not independently test or validate how the GSEs calculated compensation levels. According to Linick, DeMarco did not agree with recommendations to change the approval process but then backtracked to say his office would.

The problem, Linick said, is that the process to approve compensation began in November and may not be changed in time for 2012.

"This is an area that concerns us. We're in compensation season now," Linick said. "I am concerned we're going to be in the same exact spot next year."

The House Financial Services Committee passed a bill that would constrict Fannie and Freddie pay to that of federal regulators. When pressed, Linick said he didn't know if the FHFA would get the job done in time to reform the process itself.

"(DeMarco) acknowledged the need to do that. I don't know the status," he said. "All of this occurs right now and in November."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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