A look at stories across HousingWire's weekend desk, with more coverage to come on bigger issues:
A third round of economic stimulus based on the Fed's consumption of mortgage securities could be right around the corner. In its 2012 Securitized Products Outlook report, JPMorgan (JPM: 37.2578 -0.62%) suggested there is a wild card on the table — namely "QE3 in mortgages."
That prediction was backed up by two bond dealers interviewed by BusinessWeek over the weekend. According to the BusinessWeek article, the dealers expect the Federal Reserve to begin a new round of economic stimulus by buying up mortgage securities instead of Treasurys.
French investment bank Société Générale believes a third round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve will be announced in January. The buying, they expect, will begin soon after in March.
Home prices will decline another 6% before reaching bottom sometime in the first half of 2012, JPMorgan's Securitized Products report concluded.
Analysts with JPMorgan claim home prices will fall another 4% by year-end, resulting in a 35% peak-to-trough decline once a bottom is reached.
When looking at just nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities, the report says "market volatility, lack of liquidity and stagnant fundamentals" will remain drags on the entire segment in 2012. In nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities, the authors also noted slowing activity on the modification front. "We continue to recommend fixed-rates and select seasoned hybrids," the report said.
The JPMorgan report also is careful when forecasting the performance of commercial mortgage-backed securities in 2012.
"Our outlook for 2012 is cautiously optimistic, as market conditions continue to weigh on what we believe remains cheap fundamental credit risk. Private label and agency CMBS supply should reach $35 billion and $32 billion, respectively," the report said.
The drought in Texas is a constant headache for ranchers handling cattle, but a Texas property code will save ranch owners from having to worry about new tax liabilities if their land is impacted by the ongoing drought.
Charles Gilliland, a research economist with The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, posted a notice online, assuring ranchers that the tax code will not penalize them for drought conditions. Gilliland says Section 23.522 of the Temporary Cessation of Agricultural Use During Drought bill that passed in the Texas Legislature two years ago will essentially preserve any tax eligibility that ranches possess as long as the owner plans to bring the land back to "qualifying use after the drought ends," Gilliland wrote on the center's website.
Write to Kerri Panchuk.
The head of credit research at Société Générale is zinging politicians on the super committee for failing to reach a deal on the America's runaway debt.
In short, the indication is that the bipartisan Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction blew a huge opportunity to accomplish something so much stronger than anyone may realize.
In a note to investors, Soc Gen's Roger Horn said U.S. credit markets already had little good news to be thankful for over the last week, "as spreads have traded 7.5% wider on investment grade corporate CDS and 9.8% on high yield CDS."
Horn also laments the lack of political power in the U.S. I complained about the lack of political power to solve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With Horn's note, it now seems endemic: Washington lacks the ability to exact fundamental change.
"With the failure of the debt super committee, American politicians succeeded in their apparent plan to improve the image of their European counterparts in the eyes of global investors," Horn said.
ZING!
"Our economist Rudy Narvas notes that the failure reduces the probability that we will see a fiscal stimulus package in 2012 and therefore increases the risk of recession," he added. "The Democrats had been trying to tie in some stimulus as part of the deficit talks, while the Republicans seemed reluctant to support any stimulus measures."
So it seems as if America's politicians may, in the end, be very similar to those in Europe when it comes to solving fiscal crises.
It's an instance where imitation is not a form of flattery.
Write to Jacob Gaffney.
Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.
Tags: Fannie Mae, freddie mac, Société Générale, super committee
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