RSS Twitter

Archive for November, 2011

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Researchers from the Federal Reserve Banks of San Francisco and Kansas City say the odds of a U.S. recession in 2012 are greater than 50% because of the European debt crisis.

The figure below shows the recession-probability forecasts. The lines represent complex Leading Economic Index-based predictions the researchers previously made.

"To interpret these predictions, think about an experiment in which two coins are flipped, with heads representing recession and tails expansion," the researchers say in an economic report.

"One coin represents the recession odds from domestic factors, the other coin from international factors. The figure below shows the probabilities of flipping heads with the domestic and international coins. The overall probability of recession is reflected in the thick blue line."

The combination of the two recession coins, shown in the combined risks line, indicates the odds are greater than 50% that we will experience a recession sometime early in 2012, the Fed researchers say.

Back in September, fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC: 7.23 -0.96%) said they believe Europe will slide into a recession in the coming months.

Roughly 68% of survey respondents viewed the euro zone debt crisis among the largest of risks to global investments.

In the next few months, the odds of a U.S. recession due to domestic factors appear reasonably contained, the researchers say. Those odds increase gradually and reach about 30% in the second half of 2012, after which, they decline. Recession odds based on international factors peak at about 45% toward the end of 2011, but decline rapidly thereafter.

"The message is clear. Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic," the report states.

"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession. However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013," they conclude.

Write to Justin T. Hilley.

Follow him on Twitter @JustinHilley.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Freddie Mac mortgage servicers will be able to evaluate borrowers for the new Standard Modification on their desktops beginning Dec. 12, according to a bulletin sent Monday.

Freddie launched the Standard Modification as an alternative for those who fail out of the Home Affordable Modification Program. Trial period plans began in October, but servicers aren't required to assess a borrower for the workout until January.

In order for a borrower to qualify for a Standard Modification, he or she must be at least 60 days delinquent. If they've missed fewer payments or are current, he or she must be an owner-occupant, in imminent default and provide a hardship document.

The borrower must have already been evaluated for HAMP within 12 months of the Standard Modification. Mortgages on homes without an owner-occupant can be eligible, even vacant homes that cannot be condemned.

Roughly 1.7 million were declined a HAMP trial due to ineligibility or lacked documentation as of September. Another 600,000 borrowers have been canceled out of HAMP trials.

Roughly 650,000 of both canceled HAMP trials and rejected applications ended up in a servicer's alternative modification program.

With the Workout Prospector software, Freddie said servicers effectively automate the decision making process by granting them access to data and automatic property valuations – vital for net-present-value tests.

"This enhancement will further support automation of your servicing processes for this new modification," Freddie said in the directive to servicers.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

The Federal Housing Adminstration's insurance program is materially undercapitalized and will require a capital infusion of $50 billion to $100 billion in the next few years even if housing markets do not deteriorate further.

Joseph Gyourko, a real estate and finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, concluded that in his just-released study: "Is the FHA the Next Housing Bailout?"

His answer? "Yes"

"That range is based solely on correcting errors in estimation strategy and techniques, as well as data organization," he says. "If the economy and housing markets deteriorate unexpectedly, we need to be ready to infuse even more capital into the (FHA) Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund."

Describing the present state of the fund as precarious, Gyourko says for the past two years, the nation's 77-year-old insurer has been in violation of its capital reserve regulation. To comply with this rule would require a $12 billion capital infusion in fiscal year 2010, his research found, and that presumes future losses are not being underestimated by FHA.

The FHA has expanded since 2007, and the combination of increasing leverage at the entity level and among the homeowners being insured — many with negative equity in their homes — has made FHA a very risky proposition for taxpayers, who bear the risk if the expansion strategy does not work out, according to Gyourko.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that economists from New York University and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York issued a paper last year warning of the growing likelihood the FHA would need a taxpayer bailout. FHA officials disputed some of that report's findings.

The FHA insures lenders against defaults and is funded through the mortgage-insurance premiums it collects. It backs about one-third of all new mortgages originated for home purchases.

Gyourko's study was commissioned by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

He says the FHA's independent outside reviewer, Integrated Financial Engineering, is underestimating the federal agency's risk of insolvency because of a decision to down-weight the influence of borrowers' credit risk in FHA mortgage pools. And as a result, the likelihood of a borrower in the FHA insurance pool defaulting is underestimated by 50%.

Gyourko claims the auditor's risk analysis doesn't factor in unemployment, risk associated with borrowers who used gifts from taxpayers to fund their down payments and underestimated negative equity risk.

Another problem is that refinancings are treated as if there has been a full prepayment with no further default risk to FHA, which Gyourko says is "clearly incorrect, as the costs of a potential default remain because the new loan is insured by FHA."

However, the Ivy League professor says there is little reason to expect an extreme liquidity crisis for the fund in the next couple of years, which would require immediate losses high enough to deplete the roughly $30 billion in liquid capital resources presently available to the fund.

"That would take a huge leap in defaults and almost immediate losses that no one is anticipating. The future losses … will happen over a period of many years, not in any one single year," he says. "That provides only small comfort, as one can envision a confluence of events leading to a liquidity crisis over the medium term."

Considering that the FHA is operating a $1 trillion-plus business platform and its liquid reserves are only 3% of potential liabilities, Gyourko warns that it would only takes a few years of multibillion-dollar cash outflows to wipe out $30 billion in liquidity.

"That a reasonable person should have even the remotest worry about a liquidity problem at FHA within the next few years highlights how risky the current situation is, but it is inevitable when one is running such a highly leveraged operation. I would expect those worries to arise sooner rather than later if the economy and housing markets do not recover fairly quickly," Gyourko said.

Write to Justin T. Hilley.

Follow him on Twitter @JustinHilley.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

With investors asking lenders to provide borrowers with more transparency on their loans up front, International Document Services is answering the call by preparing new disclosure docs that are specifically in line with investor demands.

Mortgage document preparation company International Document Services is rolling out a flood insurance disclosure form through its document preparation program to help lenders comply with new flood insurance disclosure requirements.

The disclosure is required for all lenders who sell to Franklin American Mortgage Co., Mortgage Services III and Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.345 +1.02%), International Document Services said.

The disclosure form, which is titled "Flood Insurance Coverage Subject to Change," is designed to make borrowers aware of the fact that mortgage servicers who may hold the loan in the future have a right to adjust the flood insurance coverage on their mortgages.

International Document Services says investor Franklin American stipulated that the language will have to be added to all mortgages sold to the firm if the original applications are made on or after Dec. 1.

Mortgage Services III and Wells Fargo expect the language to be included on all applications filed on or after Jan. 1, 2012.

The language added to the flood insurance disclosure document is required for loans located in and outside of special flood zones, International Document Services said.

Lenders had the option of including the new flood insurance requirement as an addendum to the notice of special flood hazard form or to the servicing disclosure statement notice, according to IDS. But IDS went another direction and decided to develop a separate disclosure firm since only three investors — Franklin American, Mortgage Services III and Wells Fargo — are currently requiring the new disclosure language.

Write to Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Foreclosures, as a percentage of the Phoenix metro housing market, reached their lowest level since April 2009, according to a report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Foreclosures made up 26% of the existing-home transactions in the Greater Phoenix market in October, down from 29% in September, according to the report, released Monday. Foreclosures made up 43% of the area’s single-family existing-home transactions in January, according to the report.

"Though the local housing market is beginning to produce some positive movement, the surrounding economic environment and anemic growth are still inhibiting consumer confidence," said Business Professor Emeritus Jay Butler. "Just because we’re seeing a drop in foreclosures, that doesn’t mean we have a healthy housing market. Other types of activity and purchases are not increasing, in order to push us forward."

Butler also noted that the numbers only look at recorded foreclosures. “Many more foreclosures may be lingering in the pipeline just because more paperwork and rules are being followed in the process now,” he said.

October marked the lowest number of completed foreclosures in quite a while. The market had 1,900 completed foreclosures in October, down from almost 2,300 in September. There were almost 3,400 completed foreclosures in October 2010. The last time the number of completed foreclosures dipped below 2,000 in a single month was back in February 2008.

Overall activity in the Phoenix-area housing market is also down. The market had slightly more than 7,200 transactions in October, down from almost 8,000 transactions in September. That’s partly due to the season as housing sales tend to slow down during the fall and winter months.

The median price for a single-family home resold (not new foreclosures) in the Phoenix market in October was $125,000, down from last October’s median of $135,000.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Freddie Mac sold a record number of real estate owned properties in 2011 and got pretty decent pricing on most of them, according to Tracy Mooney, senior vice president of single-family servicing and real estate owned properties at Freddie.

Mooney said in a blog post Monday that the majority of REO sales at the government-sponsored enterprise are going to owner-occupants.

"While we have always been open to selling to investors, our strategy is to limit the concentration of investor sales in any given area," Mooney said. "In addition, we do not typically consider any offers that require significant discount pricing."

Mooney said the success of the pricing system hinges on stellar property preservation.

Within three days of the occupant leaving the house is cleared, cleaned and secured. The property is then continually landscaped to try to preserve or improve neighborhood-wide valuations.

"We sold a record number of single-family REO homes in the first nine months of 2011 — more than 80,000 — and we are selling more homes than we are taking in through foreclosure," Mooney said. "Thanks to our innovative sales strategies and top-performing broker network, our homes are selling in approximately four months — or about 120 days."

Freddie had 59,600 REOs on its books with an estimated $10.4 billion in market value, at the end of the third quarter. The GSE received $72 billion to date from the Treasury and, so far, paid back $15 billion.

Freddie is not disclosing how much they may be losing on the deals, ultimately, as the unpaid principal balance is not included in SEC filings.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Fannie Mae CEO Michael Williams and Freddie Mac CEO Charles "Ed" Haldeman agreed to face lawmakers Wednesday over bonuses they and their top executives were paid to manage the mortgage giants.

Last week, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) organized a hearing over the issue and requested both CEOs make an appearance. A spokesman for Issa said Monday that both CEOs committed to testify at what should be a tense meeting.

In 2010, both Williams and Haldeman made a base salary of $900,000 to run the two companies that owe the Treasury Department $151.7 billion in dividend payments on their continued bailouts. But both men pulled in roughly $2.3 million in bonuses, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission in February.

The combined top 10 executives at both companies made nearly $13 million in bonuses in 2010.

"If $900,000 base salary isn't enough to get someone qualified in that position, I don't know what is. You don't have to bonus them another $2.3 million — it just is too much especially when those two entities owe the American taxpayers so much money," Issa told CNBC last week.

The Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Johnson (D-S.D.) also called a hearing to be held Tuesday. Federal Housing Finance Agency Acting Director Edward DeMarco, who approved the bonuses, will testify at the Senate and would likely echo his earlier defense of the bonuses, calling them necessary to retain talent at the GSEs.

While the bonuses were disclosed nearly eight months ago, the outcry began after Politico ran a story on the payouts after Haldeman announced in October that he would step down. A group of 60 senators wrote a letter to DeMarco and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner demanding changes to how the bonuses would be approved in the future.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Homebuilders are feeling less confident about their ability to build homes for Americans who are at least 55 years old, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday.

The association measures builder confidence in this market using its 55-plus housing market index.

The most recent index shows confidence levels falling three points from a year ago to a score of 12 on the index. A score of 50 or above is positive, while an index score under 50 indicates that builder confidence in selling to the 55-plus crowd is low.

"The current state of the economy continues to affect buyers in the 55-plus housing market," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen. "The market remains weak given the many uncertainties people face in this economy. While potential buyers exist, they are hesitant to commit to buying a new home as they are concerned about selling their existing home at a fair price, due to low appraisals, an abundance of foreclosures and tighter mortgage lending criteria."

When looking at the 55-plus multifamily condo home price index, that measure of condo sales in the senior age bracket also is weak with an index level of 10 and present sales dropping one point to an index score of 9.

Meanwhile, the rental market is experiencing a surge in demand for Americans in the 55-plus age range. The multifamily rental index for the age group saw demand jump 12 points to an index score of 40. Meanwhile, the index measuring future demand in the segment increased 10 points to 42.

"Multifamily rental units continue to be the bright spot in the 55-plus housing market," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "However, with demand currently running ahead of production, as it has been for several quarters now, the risk of a shortage of rental units in select markets in the future looms larger as builders continue to have trouble obtaining credit to finance new construction."

Write to Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Deutsche Bank Securities (DB: 44.15 +1.73%) inked a deal with the National Credit Union Administration to pay $145 million to cover losses associated with the failure of five credit unions that purchased residential mortgage-backed securities.

Deutsche Bank sold the five credit unions residential mortgage-backed securities. The investment bank admits no wrongdoing in the announcement.

The NCUA said it will use the proceeds from the settlement to help pay for losses stemming from those credit union failures. The additional cash flow also will allow the NCUA to reduce what it is currently charging other credit unions to cover those losses.

"We are fulfilling our statutory responsibility to secure maximum recoveries for credit unions and ensure that consumers remain protected," said NCUA Chairman Debbie Matz. "As part of our resolution strategy for the five failed credit unions, we raised over $28 billion in liquidity by resecuritizing troubled assets."

When credit unions fail, their financial losses are covered by the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund. However, NCUA says that fund must be repaid and those proceeds generally come from charging other federally insured credit unions.

NCUA says it has charged credit unions $3.3 billion in the past two years to cover losses on the failure of five corporate credit unions. It will cost another $1.8 billion and $6.1 billion to cover the remaining losses from the credit union failures. The remaining amount must be paid by 2021.

To help its position further, NCUA placed the five credit unions into liquidation and ended up resecuritizing the troubled MBS, selling them back into the market with a government backstop. This maneuver alone produced $28.3 billion in proceeds, NCUA said.

NCUA also filed suit against four other securities firms, claiming they broke federal and state securities regulations and misrepresented the quality of RMBS.

In early August, NCUA claimed in a suit that Goldman Sachs & Co. (GS: 110.24 +1.55%) committed federal and state securities violations by misrepresenting the risks associated with securities sold to two failed credit unions. In that suit, the NCUA is seeking $491 million in damages.

The five credit unions that failed include U.S. Central Corporate Credit Union, Western Corporate Credit Union, Southwest Corporate Credit Union, Members United Corporate Credit Union and Constitution Corporate Credit Union. All five were taken into conservatorship in 2009 and 2010.

Write to Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Bank of America (BAC: 7.23 -0.96%) more than tripled its litigation expenses resolving mortgage problems from Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial Corp. in 2011, but they appear to be making at least some progress.

In the first nine months of 2011, the bank spent $3.8 billion in litigation expenses, up from $1.2 billion over the same period last year. Where an estimate is possible, the bank said in its third-quarter financial filing, a range of possible losses from a wide-array of pending lawsuits could total as high as $3.6 billion.

The bank did hedge itself, clarifying in its filing that it does not represent a maximum loss given many uncertainties.

"The matters underlying the estimated range will change from time to time, and actual results may vary significantly from the current estimate," BofA said.

The cases name either BofA or its two acquisitions as issuers, sellers, underwriters or sponsors of mortgage-backed securities or the originator of the underlying loans that defaulted. Among the many claims, BofA is juggling defenses for how underlying properties were appraised; allegedly fraudulent disclosures of loan-to-value ratios; and other faulty underwriting practices.

The most recent sign of headway came at the end of October. BofA and the Public Employees' Retirement System of Mississippi – which bet heavily on the mortgage markets during the bubble – reached a settlement pending approval in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

Bank-rating firm Institutional Risk Analytics said the issue surrounds roughly 18 MBS offerings of $17 billion in original principal – of which they estimate investors lost $4 billion.

"While this settlement does not include the $30 billion or so in collateral default obligations claims still facing Merrill Lynch and (Bank of America), this proposed settlement is an important step to clearing the decks at (BofA)," said IRA's Chris Whalen.

On Oct. 21, The U.S. District Court for the Central District of California dismissed claims from Allstate alleging negligent misrepresentation and aiding and abetting fraud from millions in Countrywide RMBS deals.

The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York also denied a motion from American International Group's (AIG: 25.09 -0.20%) to move its $10 billion MBS case against BofA, Merrill and Countrywide to state court.

Problems remain. Shortly after BofA reached the settlement in the Mississippi case, a New York court denied its attempt to consolidate complaints filed against it from monolines, including MBIA, Syncora Guarantee, Financial Guaranty Insurance and Ambac Insurance.

Courts heard oral arguments from MBIA and Syncora on the same day Oct. 5. MBIA even sought rulings that it does not have to prove Countrywide's alleged fraud caused the monoline's losses.

The BNY Mellon (BK: 20.08 +0.40%) settlement saga remains ongoing. A number of 44 groups, including the New York Attorney General, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, came forward to contest the $8.5 billion settlement over 530 MBS trusts containing $424 billion in Countrywide loans, claiming the dollar figure isn't enough.

Late in October, U.S. District Court of the Southern District of New York Judge William Pauley III denied BNY Mellon's motion to move the case to state court.

BofA said it can't even predict how many groups will intervene let alone how long it would take to resolve the objections.

"It is not currently possible to predict how many of the parties who have appeared in the court proceeding will ultimately object to the BNY Mellon Settlement, whether the objections will prevent receipt of final court approval or the ultimate outcome of the court approval process, which can include appeals and could take a substantial period of time," BofA said in its filing.

BofA can withdraw from the settlement if isn't approved by the end of 2015.

Then, there's Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their regulator sued BofA, Countrywide and Merrill – along with 14 other institutions – over a combined $57.4 billion in MBS sold to the government-sponsored enterprises allegedly laced with fraudulent disclosures. BofA was responsible for $6 billion of the liability with the rest stemming from Merrill and Countrywide.

BofA also said it faced roughly $11.7 billion in unresolved representation and warranty claims to buyback individual mortgages, up from $10.7 billion remaining at the end of 2010. The bulk of the new claims stem from Fannie and Freddie claims not covered by previous multibillion-dollar settlements.

Add it all up and it's easy to understand why BofA continues to search for new capital to fund its courtroom battles that could take years still. The bank received billions in capital from Warren Buffett, sales of its China Construction Bank stake and the shedding of other businesses – all while maintaining it does not face a capital shortfall.

"There is still a great deal of liability for BofA still pending the decision of the courts," Whalen said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.



Origination/Lending
Consumer sentiment climbed to an index level of 75 in January, the best reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan...

Read More »

Secondary Markets/Investors
The new federal task force led by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman sent subpoenas to the 11 largest financial...

Read More »