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Archive for August, 2011

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will cost taxpayers $51 billion between 2012 and 2021, according to a new estimate released by the Congressional Budget Office Wednesday.

The CBO increased its projection by $9 billion from its estimate released in June.

Since placing the government-sponsored enterprises in conservatorship in 2008, the Treasury Department sent $170 billion in subsidies through the second quarter, of which $27.9 billion has been paid back.

The Treasury sent $103.8 billion to Fannie Mae, with $14.7 billion returned. Another $66.2 billion went to Freddie with $13.2 billion of that paid back.

The yearly payments to Fannie and Freddie should go down, according to the CBO. The nonpartisan bureau estimates the Treasury will send $5 billion to both mortgage giants by the end of 2011, down from $40 billion spent on them in 2010. In 2012, the CBO estimates $7 billion in bailouts, which should remain the peak until 2021.

The CBO said the drop in 2011 was "mostly because the two entities are expected to recognize fewer losses on their mortgage investments and guarantees."

But the outlook for the long-term mortgage market remains tentative. Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Housing Administration guaranteed or financed 95% of new mortgages in 2011.

Demand remains dim despite mortgage rates still hovering at levels not seen since the 1960s. The CBO expects rates to remain low for the next several years. As a result, the lack of demand and the CBO-estimated 2.2 million vacant homes sitting on the market continue to keep prices depressed – which will continue to gouge the GSEs.

The CBO estimated prices will not begin to sustain an increase until the second half of 2012. Not until the end of 2013 will the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index reach levels measured in 2004, according to the CBO.

Congress will likely remain gridlocked on what to ultimately do with Fannie and Freddie until 2013, even though some legislation for a future housing finance system has been introduced.

"Nevertheless, there are some signs of improvement in private mortgage lending, such as growth in originations of jumbo loans over the past several quarters — albeit still at low levels — and a noticeable narrowing of the difference in interest rates between jumbo and conforming loans," the CBO said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Online real estate marketplace Zillow (Z: 27.04 +1.58%), which went public last month, marked its first quarter of profitability with net income of $1.6 million in the second quarter, or break even on a per share basis, up from a $1.92 million loss, or 16 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenue increased 116% to $15.8 million from $7.3 million in the second quarter of 2010.

Seattle-based Zillow, a real estate website with listings and sales data on more than 100 million U.S. homes, soared in its first day of public trading July 20, closing at $35.77, up nearly 79% from its initial offering price of $20 a share. Shares rose about 7% on Wednesday ahead of its first official earnings report.

Zillow's revenue growth was driven by marketplace revenue, which includes subscription fees for real estate agents and advertising sold to mortgage lenders. The company said marketplace revenue was up 269% to $9.7 million from $2.6 million in the second quarter of 2010.

"The second quarter was outstanding for Zillow with record revenues, traffic and mobile usage. It marks our first profitable quarter on a GAAP net income basis and our fourth consecutive profitable quarter on an adjusted EBITDA basis," said Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff. "We're extremely pleased with our progress and rapid growth, yet we believe we've only scratched the surface of our opportunity."

Average monthly unique users grew 93% to a record 20.8 million in the second quarter of 2011 compared to 10.8 million average monthly unique users for the same period in 2010. July marked another record traffic month with 23.2 million unique users to Zillow's websites and mobile applications, a 98% increase from July 2010, the company said.

Zillow estimated revenue of $16 million to $17 million for 3Q during an afternoon earnings call.

Still, the company said it is still operating cautiously due to the struggling housing market

"Zillow's data still says we haven't bottomed yet (nationwide) and as a result the company is being very cautious," Rascoff told investors during the conference call.

Zillow said its premier agent count grew 180% year over year. The firm said it believes the program has a lot more opportunity for growth. The program provides real estate agents with a bundled package that includes "elite agent" status in a ZIP code and a bundle of ad placements.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

An Australian tech company called Computershare, a provider of software solutions and professional services to the securities industry, purchased Specialized Loan Servicing for $113.6 million in cash.

In a presentation to investors, Computershare CEO Stuart Crosby said that the market for servicing distressed mortgages in the United States is only going to grow, thus providing the impetus for the purchase.

Under the terms of the deal, Computershare may make some additional payments in the next three years. Japan-based Shinsei Bank previously held a majority stake in Colorado-based SLS.

In 2010, SLS posted revenue of $84 million. It services 219,000 loans with $16.5 billion in unpaid principal balances.

SLS is a primary and special servicer of U.S. residential mortgages, including first-liens, subordinated and home equity lines of credit.

In some cases, SLS owns mortgage servicing rights. The company holds a 6% market share in its space, which the Australian buyer wants to grow.

"Regulatory and other pressures are leading many U.S. banks to consider outsourcing their mortgage servicing and identify sub-servicing solutions," according to an investor relations report on the deal.

Computershare hopes to close the deal in 120 days.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

The New York Stock Exchange warned Flagstar Bank (FBC: 0.6815 +3.26%) of a possible delisting as its stock traded below $1 per share for 30 consecutive days.

The Troy, Mich.-based bank must push stock shares above $1 by Feb. 18, 2012, in order to avoid any action, according to NYSE policy. The bank alerted investors to the warning on Wednesday.

Flagstar held $12.7 billion in assets as of the end of June. In the second quarter, the bank narrowed its losses to $31.7 million from $81.9 million one year ago. Flagstar hasn't reported a profit since the second quarter of 2008.

Since the financial crisis, the bank has been unloading nonperforming mortgages, dumping $474 million in loans in November and another $80.3 million in the first quarter.

It also sold its bank franchise in Indiana, netting $23 million on the sale of 22 retail branches.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Higher delinquency rates on home mortgages in the second quarter could adversely effect collateral backing residential mortgage-backed securities, Standard & Poor's said Wednesday.

S&P says delinquencies on residential mortgage loans rose in the past two quarters after showing signs of improvement during three consecutive quarters last year.

In quarter two, the total delinquency rate on one-to-four unit residential properties rose to 8.44% of all loans outstanding, up from 8.32% in the first quarter and down 9.85% from 2Q 2010, S&P said.

The Mortgage Bankers Association noted a similar trend earlier in the week, reporting a quarter-over-quarter increase in mortgage delinquencies during the first two periods of 2011.

MBA recorded an 8.44% delinquency rate for mortgages backing one-to-four family properties in the second quarter. That is up 12 basis points from the first quarter, but down 141 basis points from the year-ago quarter.

Meanwhile, foreclosure activity fell in the first part of the year, with the percentage of foreclosure starts on all loans hitting 0.96% in 2Q, down 12 basis points from the first quarter and 15 points from a year ago.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

An extension to the elevated conforming loan limits is not so far-fetched, according to Robert Toll, the executive chairman of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL: 22.3018 +1.05%).

On Oct. 1, the maximum mortgage amount that can be guaranteed or financed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the Federal Housing Administration drops across the country. The ceiling falls to $625,500 in the most expensive neighborhoods though it varies by county.

Congress pushed the limit up to $729,750 in 2008 when liquidity in the mortgage markets froze. Both the Obama administration and Republicans in Congress want private capital to return, and the first step to doing so would be to allow the conforming loan limit to drop. The industry, however, wants an extension, and two bills in Congress would provide it if passed.

"My sources in D.C. say you shouldn't be surprised to see an extension to the conforming loan limits," Toll said in a conference call with investors Wednesday.

Few are watching the political developments closer.

The luxury homebuilder pushed profits up 54% in its fiscal year third quarter, but Toll admitted demand is down. The builder expects to deliver between 2,474 and 2,675 homes for its fiscal 2011, which would be roughly flat from the 2,605 a year earlier.

Toll Brothers hit a high with 10,372 homes contracted in fiscal 2010.

The company did find bright spots in its operations. CEO Douglas Yearley said with its capital advantages, Toll Brothers continually outbids investors for land opportunities in New York. Yearly also said its distressed loan and asset management firm Gibraltar Capital and Asset Management netted the company $4 million in the quarter.

"We are excited about Gibraltar," Yearley said. "If you know anybody that has some troubled loans, we have the capital and the skill to work them out."

Still, demand for the company's core business remains weak given the economic uncertainty and volatile stock market.

"There is a negative feeling coming out of budget crisis, the stock market gyrations, uncertainty around the loan limits and the mortgage tax deductions, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac," Toll said.

He then switched his tone, pointing to the government's failure to provide any certainty on these issues.

"If there's anybody who should be nervous," he said, "it should be the guys in Washington."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Lenders who fail to conduct mediation sessions with distressed borrowers living in Springfield, Mass., could face penalties as high as $30,000 under ordinances passed by the city council this week.

The updated code requires lenders to conduct mediation sessions with distressed Springfield borrowers within 45 days of the homeowner receiving a right-to-cure notice in the mail. A financial institution that fails to comply with this mandate faces a $300 fine per occurrence per day, with fines kicking in after the initial 45-day period.

"If they don't negotiate in the first 45 days, the process stretches out to 150 days," explained Springfield City Councilor Amaad Rivera, who proposed the ordinance. A failure to mediate within the 150-day period easily amounts to $31,500 in fines, with the offender having to pay $300 per day after the initial 45-day period.

Springfield's city council also approved an ordinance requiring lenders to post $10,000 bonds on all vacant properties registered with the city.

The bond becomes an insurance policy, giving the city additional funds when forced to cover maintenance costs on the vacant property. Once a property is no longer vacant, the city will return the bond with $500 subtracted for administrative fees.

Springfield's mayor has to review the new code before it takes effect.

Tom Deutsch, executive director of the American Securitization Forum, has been studying controversial city codes and their impact on lending institutions and the securitization process. Earlier this year, he sounded the alarm on a Chicago ordinance, saying it forces lenders to cover property expenses before a home is legally back in the lender's hands.

After studying the Springfield ordinance he noted similar issues.

"I think this is subject to the same potential legal challenges as the Chicago ordinance," Deutsch told HousingWire. "It requires a mortgage holder to be deemed an owner as if they have taken full possessory rights through the foreclosure process even though they have not done so."

Rivera said Wednesday the council remains confident the codes can survive a legal challenge.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

It is unlikely Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke — set to speak Friday from Jackson Hole, Wyo. — will relieve the struggling credit markets with language prophesying a third round of quantitative easing.

That's not to suggest QE3 isn't coming. Jim Vogel of FTN Financial puts the chance of future economic stimulus around 50%.

Paul Dales, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said any such intervention in the secondary market would have a limited impact.

"Even if Bernanke does flag up the possibility of QE3, with Treasury yields already very low it would not significantly boost the economy," Dales said. "Moreover, the markets are increasingly aware that QE is not a silver bullet. Any resulting gains in equity and commodity prices should therefore be smaller than under QE1 and QE2."

So while it may seem the Fed is running out of these less-than-silver bullets, it is important to clarify that the U.S. government is not necessarily running low on ammo. Indeed, much more could likely be done to fix housing from the ground up, if it weren't for the lack of political will and the current stagnation-favoritism being displayed by many elected officials.

On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank suggested the resurrection of similar housing initiatives the government deployed after the Great Depression.

As DB analyst Steven Abrahams notes, of the 100 largest U.S. housing markets, more than half have 10% or more mortgages in distress. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold the largest inventories of foreclosed properties.

If Washington could find a way to move these houses into buyer's hands, then the nation's economy would experience a bump much larger than any form of quantitative easing could offer.

After long conversations with the CEOs of both government-sponsored enterprises, it is clear that Freddie's Ed Haldeman and Fannie's Mike Williams are dedicated to owner-occupancy.

But both men are realistic. They also want to protect taxpayers as much as possible. In the real world, both acknowledge these homes need to go into the hands of someone, and right now, the largest untapped market for this is the cash investor base.

But this population is actually extremely cash-strapped. Numbers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis show that the nation's banks are becoming more illiquid as they seek to shore up capital levels. Net loan growth lessened by 2.32 percentage points from last year, while the risk-based capital ratio increased by 84 basis points. As the nation's bank restricts credit, so goes the buying power of mom-and-pop type investors.

These are the types of buyers who should be incentivized to rent out the properties, along with private equity and hedge fund investors.

Abrahams states that the Home Owners’ Loan Corp., a government agency created in the ashes of the Great Depression acquired 198,000 foreclosed homes.

"The HOLC usually financed its own acquisition, refurbished the homes, often rented them out first to establish a rental value and then slowly sold them off," said Abrahams, who believes a similar system would work even better today, with our more developed credit markets.

"It would help clear the market of distressed property, increase the supply of rentals, stop and probably
reverse the slide in home prices and lift the value of one of consumers’ most important assets," he added, noting that a great place to start would be at the GSEs.

He also suggests that the government create public-private partnerships where investors take most of the equity risk and manage operating costs while the agencies finance 50% to 70% of the price.

This would also help meet the surging demand of rentals. Given the opportunity, families would prefer living in single-family dwellings, which also helps tenants visualize their own eventual ownership more clearly.

Critics will no doubt say that the federal government should not play a part as a pseudo-landlord. However, the current half-socialized nature of housing is untenable. Something has to be done, and the private markets are not prepared for moving to less government backing.

So while QE3 may still be up in the air, the government should not wait to get more involved with housing. It is clear Washington is looking to relieve the housing market, and thereby boost the economy.

A look at where the greatest demand is, in rentals, would be the best place to start.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

KB Home (KBH: 9.73 +0.31%) wants to build energy-efficient homes on nearly 900 lots in several San Francisco Bay area communities.

But will reticent consumers want to buy?

The Los Angeles-based volume builder — whose stock price tumbled Wednesday to a 52-week low — is launching the projects during a still-shaky housing market, but consultants say the Bay area is one of the few markets with strong fundamentals for homebuilders.

The new residential developments are in the cities of Dublin, Fremont, Martinez, Morgan Hill, Petaluma, Santa Clara and Walnut Creek. KB opened several model homes in the developments where they will offer single-family residences and attached town homes. Additional model homes are scheduled to open this fall.

KB said all homes in the communities will be Energy Star and GreenPoint rated to operate more efficiently — something that should play well in the Bay area where green isn't just about cost efficiency but plays to people's cultural and political ideologies, noted Dean Wehrli, senior manager with John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

"Demand for lots in those key areas is actually pretty intense," said Wehrli, who said the area tends to be chronically under-supplied.

"The Bay area is probably the strongest housing market in California, maybe Orange County rivals it," he said. Still, some areas are better off than others with Walnut Creek being a "golden address" but KB may find the more blue-collar Martinez a bit more challenging, Wehrli said.

Sales of newly built homes fell 0.7% in July — to their lowest level in six months, according to data released this week by the Commerce Department. Analysts said the housing market has years of stalled recovery ahead.

New home sales will compete with a flood of distressed properties still on the market, which typically sell at a discount although the numbers of distressed properties competing with new home sales in California are declining. In San Francisco County, 17.6% of all sales during the first quarter were either REO sales or short sales, according to RealtyTrac, down from nearly 20% in the year-ago quarter. In Contra Costa County, where the city of Martinez is located, 51.6% of all homes sales during 1Q were foreclosure-related sales, down from 53.2% a year ago.

Still, San Francisco has performed better than many others because of its desirability and limited land supply, which has made it immune to big housing declines, said Scott Sambucci, vice president of data analytics for Altos Research.

Homebuilders may also be taking advantage of cheap land, he noted, and consumers may take the plunge if they can get a good deal.

"If I can get a brand new house for $300 a square foot vs. a house that's been lived in for $250 per square foot, maybe I'll just buy a new house," he said. That could be true even in struggling communities flooded with REOs like Martinez where consumers may not have the cash to pay for extensive renovations. Getting a new house with a 3% down FHA loan that won't require any significant work for 10 years might be very appealing, he said.

Nationwide, weak job creation and uncertainty about job stability could mean slow movement on new home construction, analysts predict, with record-low mortgage rates not enough to move the market.

National builders continue to struggle as homebuyers stay on the sidelines. KB's second-quarter loss widened as home sales declined and revenue fell during the three months ended May 31.

The homebuilder posted a second-quarter loss of $68.5 million, or 89 cents per share, compared to a loss of $30.7 million, or 40 cents per share, a year ago.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

The delinquency rate on home loans within commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 22 basis points to 9.24% in July, according to Moody's Investors Service.

The rate stayed higher than 9% each month this year. For July 2010, the delinquency rate was 7.89%.

Moody's delinquency tracker showed mortgages in arrears rose in July in all but two vintages between 2000 and 2008. The rate for loans originated in 2003 fell six basis points, and mortgages written in 2008 inched lower by one bps.

Meanwhile the delinquency rate in July for mortgages from 2001 rose by 795 basis points to 33.78%, due to a decline in the overall balance with only 18% of vintage balance still outstanding, according to Moody's.

Analysts said an $835 million increase to $55.6 billion in the delinquent loan balance in July pushed the delinquency rate higher, and there weren't any new CMBS issues last month to help offset loans that defaulted or were paid off. The level of CMBS outstanding in the conduit/fusion universe consequently shrank by $5.1 billion.

Moody's specially serviced loan tracker fell five basis points to 12.3% in July, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Analysts said the 306 basis point spread between the CMBS delinquency tracker and the specially serviced tracker is the lowest since August 2009.

"Given the elevated specially serviced loan rate and continued economic uncertainty, CMBS delinquencies are likely to remain in the high single-digit range for the near term," according to Tad Philipp, Moody's director of commercial real estate research.

While the delinquency rate for hotels fell 76 basis points to 15% in July, the delinquency rates for both office and retail mortgages rose. Office delinquencies increased to 7.59% from 7.04% in June, and retail delinquencies climbed to 7.37% from 7.16%, according to Moody's.

Nevada continues to have the highest delinquency rate of the 50 states at 20.38%, nearly two and a half times the national average, Moody's analysts said. The Silver State's delinquency rate fell by more than 2 percentage points in July from 22.7% the prior month, driven by a 9 percentage points improvement in Las Vegas.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw



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