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Archive for August, 2011

Friday, August 26th, 2011

The number of loans within commercial mortgage-backed securities coming due next year is set to drop 40%, according to Fitch Ratings.

Analysts said about 1,200 commercial loans worth $17.3 billion in CMBS transactions rated by Fitch mature next year, down from 2,000 loans worth $22.5 billion that mature this year.

Loans scheduled to mature in 2012 have an average balance of $13.9 million and were originated between 1996 and 2007, according to Fitch, which expects the majority of loans to payoff despite the short-term volatility of the capital markets.

"Most maturing loans, particularly those from earlier vintages, benefit from stable performance and years of scheduled amortization, which make them more easily financeable in today' market," Fitch Senior Director Adam Fox said.

He said loans written after 2007 are the most challenging to refinance and borrowers "will likely need to contribute additional equity to secure financing for five-year loans."

Analysts said commercial loans maturing in 2013 remain modest at $13.3 billion with another $15.5 billion maturing in 2014.

Then in 2015, some $29 billion of commercial mortgages within CMBS mature, according to Fitch.

Analysts said commercial loan servicers continue to work with borrowers when property performance is not an issue.

"Servicers are still reaching out to borrowers early and if needed, providing short term forbearances to complete the refinance process," Fox said.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw

Friday, August 26th, 2011

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak from Jackson Hole, Wyo., Friday morning to provide an update on monetary policy.

In the meantime, some markets players plan to stay out of trading in the immediate aftermath of Bernanke's announcement due to weaknesses from the threat of another recession and the ongoing European sovereign crises.

Capital markets strategist, Jim Vogel of FTN Financial, said "markets are poorly positioned to process and absorb whatever Bernanke's message might prove to be this morning."

With many analysts predicting another round of quantitative easing to boost a sagging economy in the near term, the financial services industry is waiting to see if the Fed chairman will use his Jackson Hole address to unveil additional doses of accommodative monetary policy. The Fed chair used the same backdrop last year to outline several expansionary policies, including QE2.

Moody's Analytics speculated QE3 is all but certain. Moody's made that prediction after it lowered its estimate on GDP growth to about 2% for the second half of 2011.

An analyst at Goldman Sachs (GS: 109.91 +1.24%) said earlier this month that the Fed's dovish stance on the federal funds rate, which will be left near zero until 2013, is a sign that QE3 is coming.

Vogel said trading volume has been thin all week in every major market except gold, and investors "focused on selected headlines to the exclusion of others equally as important."

"Erratic trading correlations suggest pockets of risk still being 'discovered' as prices move in big gaps," Vogel said. "The bias remains toward disappointed equities after the speech, however."

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Friday, August 26th, 2011

Gross domestic product — or output of all goods and services — grew at an annual rate of 1% in the second quarter, compared to growth of 0.4% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday.

The real GDP figure is down from the department's original estimate 1.3% growth for the second quarter.

The Commerce Department said an easing on imports, an upturn in federal government spending and nonresidential fixed investment helped GDP in the second quarter. But those advances were offset by declines in personal spending,  exports and private inventory investment, the Commerce Department said.

Capital Economics said underlying GDP growth "was actually a bit stronger" during the three months ended June 30.

"Nonetheless, GDP growth probably won't be much better in either the third or fourth quarters," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist for the Toronto-based firm. "The slowdown is here to stay."

Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected second-quarter GDP growth of 1.1% with a range of estimates from 0.7% to 1.6%. Econoday noted "while GDP growth was revised down, the more important measure of momentum — final sales — were revised up slightly but are still sluggish.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Friday, August 26th, 2011

The U.S. market for mortgage-backed securities is increasingly on edge this week as a dour economic outlook fans speculation that the government will come to the aid of homeowners who have been unable to take advantage of record low interest rates.

Traders reported the most volatile trading this year in some MBS amid speculation that the Obama administration would remove at least some hurdles to refinancing for borrowers with weaker credit and whose loans are underwater. The administration has been weighing numerous options to stabilize the battered housing market–a key source of weakness in the economy.

Administration officials have been studying ways to increase the number of homeowners who can refinance, but haven't settled on a definite plan.

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Given the dampened prospects for U.S. economic growth over the next several years, real estate investment trusts that specialize in apartments are a smart bet for investors, says a new report.

Apartment REITs are poised to increase their net asset values, thanks to strong pipelines of multifamily projects that will create additional value when they’re completed, according to a research report from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. (KBW: 17.575 +0.89%), an investment bank that specializes in the financial services sector.

Analysts Haendel St Juste and Taylor Schimkat reiterated their favorable near-term outlook for the apartment industry and said it is "our view that the apartment sector, along with manufactured housing and student housing sectors, represent a relatively attractive safe haven for REIT investors in light of slowing GDP growth and economic uncertainty."

KBW recently slashed its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth to 1.4% for this year, down from 2.2%, and 0.6% for 2012, down by almost three-quarters from its previous projection of 2.3%. For 2013, the firm projects GDP will expand 2.3%, a modest decline from its earlier forecast of 2.5%.

"Apartment fundamentals are on a roll, making development one of the most compelling ways an apartment REIT can enhance shareholder value," said St Juste and Schimkat in their research report, adding that they expect AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB: 134.38 -0.38%) and Equity Residential (EQR: 59.26 +0.02%) to lead the way in value creation.

While they have lowered their price targets, they predict net asset values for apartment REITs will rise an average of 1%.

"Our analysis indicates that most recently completed development projects are poised to generate modest to meaningful positive present value, when stabilized to current market rents, assisted by recent market rent growth improvement, lowered development costs (10-15%), low debt costs and cap rate compression over the past couple years," said the report. Cap, or capitalization, rates are a measure of a property’s net operating income divided by its price or market value. They give investors an idea of what kind of return a property will deliver.

"Our view," said St Juste and Schimkat, "is based on our assessment that apartment pricing and demand will remain robust in the near-term, in the absence of a double-dip scenario."

Write to Liz Enochs.

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Warren Buffett's $5 billion Bank of America (BAC: 7.215 -1.16%) investment netted Berkshire Hathaway plenty of profits on day one, but the bank is not out of the woods.

The stock opened up trading Thursday climbing as high as 25% after BofA announced a massive stock purchase from Buffett. According to Bloomberg, estimates show the preferred shares and warrants earned $1.3 billion on Thursday.

"Anytime Warren Buffett invests in a company it instills confidence in not only Bank of America investors but the entire sector," said J.T. Smith, chief investment officer at the boutique investment bank Aristar Funding Corp.

Smith said Buffett may have actually been protecting his 350 million shares in Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.36 +1.07%), which earned Buffett $700 million before lunch.

But Smith estimates BofA has $80 billion in mortgage losses in the pipeline, including almost $400 billion in modifications that historically redefault at a rate of 64% within 18 months. Resurging delinquencies and a slowing economy foreshadow still lingering problems for the bank, Smith said.

While the stock market welcomed Buffett's idea, which he told CNBC came to him in a bathtub, analysts were split between admonishing the bank for giving Buffett such generous terms on the investment and those who said the $5 billion hardly makes a dent in its capital needs.

When asked if BofA was out of the woods, one prominent banking analyst said simply, "No." BofA CEO Brian Moynihan continued to hold the stance Thursday morning that his bank did not have a liquidity issue.

John Hempton, chief investment officer at Bronte Capital, launched a defense of the bank he and his clients are long on Thursday. Hempton said BofA will have the ability to spread its mortgage and litigation losses out over time, investors are simply panicking, and the U.S. government has shown no appetite to test the "too big to fail" theory.

"In other words BofA has enough capital to raise money in the bond market because its real capital is not something on its book. Its real capital is faith and credit of the United States," Hempton said.

Smith disagreed.

"A $5 billion investment in a company with $2 trillion in liabilities does nothing except show that Brian Moynihan was less than forthcoming when he said they did not need to raise capital," Smith said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

The housing recovery in the Sunbelt, those southern-most states, is at levels ahead of the nation's average, despite housing prices in the region going in two separate directions.

According to the third quarter 2011 economic outlook report by BBVA, housing prices in the Sunbelt are showing a dual evolution. Nondistressed properties prices are exhibiting stability, but distressed prices are declining with growing intensity.

BBVA states that overall declines are between 2% and 12%. But, when digging further into the numbers, discounts for foreclosures can get as high as 30%. This drags down nondistressed prices when averaged.

In the first five months of 2011, prices appreciated in some Sunbelt states, namely Texas, where prices increased 3% on average. The average discount for a distressed home in the Sunbelt is 20%, BBVA said.

In California, Arizona and Florida, where supplies are high, foreclosures can make up nearly half of all distressed sales and discounts can be around 15%.

In Alabama, New Mexico and Texas, the discount can be up to 30%.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said the major mortgage refinance program the Obama administration reportedly began developing mirrors her own.

According to The New York Times, the Obama administration is developing a plan to help more underwater borrowers refinance their mortgage, granting them relief under historically low rates.

Boxer and Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) resubmitted S. 170 in June to eliminate refinancing barriers and fees for borrowers with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their lack of participation in such major refinancing and principal write-down programs, under the direction of their conservator the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has left many underwater borrowers trapped in their current payments.

"I understand that White House officials are now examining steps that mirror the approach of S. 170," Boxer said wrote in a letter to FHFA Acting Director Edward DeMarco Thursday.

She met with DeMarco in June in an effort to persuade him to implement the program administratively and without congressional action.

The FHFA has said such a program would boost already steady losses at the GSEs, forcing more bailout funds from the Treasury.

Currently, more than 8 million Fannie or Freddie loans carry an interest rate of more than 6%. The Boxer bill would target roughly 2 million borrowers for a refinance into today's lower interest rate loans, many with loan-to-value ratios above 125%. She claims the program would not cost the FHFA any taxpayer funds and would reduce defaults by keeping these borrowers from walking away.

"We’ve received the letter and will respond to the senator," an FHFA spokesperson said.

The Treasury Department declined to comment on the reported program.

"As one would expect, we continue to look for ways to ease the burden on struggling homeowners and to help stabilize the market, whether that's through assessing new proposals or older ones worth re-considering as market conditions change," the Obama administration said in a statement. "That said, we have no plans to announce any major new initiatives at this time."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

At least one housing analyst is pushing back against a government proposal to dispose of the government's real-estate owned properties through bulk sales to investors.

Quinn Eddins, director of research at data firm Radar Logic, concluded in the latest RPX Monthly Housing Market Report that housing remains a drag on the economy and home price stability could be negatively impacted by the Fed's proposed REO-disposition plan to sell  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government-held inventory in bulk.  The RPX Composite price index, which tracks home values in 25 metro areas, showed a 4.7% drop year-over-year in June.

Eddins said analysts are concerned about the Fed's proposal to cut down on the number of government-owned distressed properties by allowing  investors to buy these REOs in bulk for the purpose of turning them into rentals.

"Unless careful steps are taken to prevent it, we fear that bulk sales of REO properties could have an adverse effect on the appraised values of homes, and therefore home sales," the RPX monthly report warned.

Eddins believes a bulk sale could result in markets with a large number of low-priced homes with "misleadingly low appraisals" on REO properties — skewing home prices across the board.

"The low appraisals could then scuttle home sales that do not involve REO properties," Eddins wrote. "Even if local appraisers do not use the bulk-sale properties as comps, there are many automated valuation models that would likely incorporate the prices of those properties unless there was some way to designate them as bulk-sale properties. This issue should be taken into consideration by anyone trying to implement a bulk-sale program."

The report goes on to say bulk sales will likely result in the GSEs recording losses on the REO properties when comparing the sale amount to the principal on the defaulted loan. "We believe these losses, which will ultimately be passed to taxpayers, could be huge," Radar Logic said.

Instead of going the route of selling the properties to investors, the RPX report recommends the Federal Housing Finance Agency focus on restructuring delinquent or distressed loans to cut down on the flow of properties to government portfolios.

Eddins says the Fed could then rent out properties from its REO portfolios by working with private-sector property managers.

"We believe our two-pronged strategy will reduce the REO portfolios of the enterprises and the FHA and reduce the oversupply problem currently facing the housing market while avoiding a devastating loss to taxpayers," Eddins writes.

The plan will officially be proposed by Radar Logic next month.

Looking forward, the RPX report said "housing is poised for further weakness," but analysts expect a recovery eventually.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Just as the commercial real estate sector showed signs of recovery, analysts now forecast a renewed struggle as the economy slumps.

Financial advisory firm Deloitte said in a report Thursday modest GDP growth, still high unemployment and weakened housing demand delayed a full-fledged commercial real estate recovery. Nearly $1.7 trillion in CRE loans will come due between 2011 and 2015. According to Deloitte, 60% of these loans are underwater, making it difficult for tenants to refinance and extend their terms.

This strategy of "extend and pretend" may be waning as workouts faded in the first quarter of 2011 and new commercial REO showed an uptick (see chart below).

The National Association of Realtors projects vacancy rates to drop across all commercial real estate types over the next year, but the weakened economy will take its toll.

"Disappointing economic growth in recent months means a slower recovery for most of the commercial real estate sectors, although multifamily housing continues to benefit from pent-up demand resulting from an abnormal slowdown in household formation in recent years," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.

CRE delinquencies in the first quarter did decline to 7.5% from 8.7% one year ago, but defaults remain at historic highs, Deloitte said. New originations totaled $118.8 billion in 2010, increasing 44% from the year before, and Deloitte analysts believe should continue trending up.

New CMBS issuance should triple to $47 billion in 2011 and investor interest is improving. But Deloitte said new originations are only of the highest quality and smaller regional banks still hold a lot of exposure to the CRE loans set to mature by 2015, increasing refinancing risk.

"Prospects for a broad CRE market recovery likely will be enhanced when lenders resume loan originations for 'nontrophy' assets and refinancing options increase to stabilize debt maturities," Deloitte said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.



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