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Archive for August, 2011

Monday, August 15th, 2011

Prices on U.S. subprime credit default swaps rose in July after falling a month earlier when the suspension of Maiden Lane II auctions dampened the outlook for CDS prices, Fitch Solutions said Monday.

The agency released a report Monday, which shows U.S. subprime CDS prices rising 1% in July, recovering most of the segment's losses from a month earlier.

The 2006 and 2007 vintages fared the best, experiencing their largest price gains in the past year, with 2006 prices rising 5.2% year-over-year and the 2007 vintage jumping 48.6%. The overall index grew 39%.

"The increase for 2006 prices is particularly notable because this vintage has significantly underperformed its peers over the past year," said Fitch senior director Alexander Reyngold. "That being the case, the 2006 price increase still pales noticeably when put up against the movement of the index overall."

Fitch Solutions said loan performance overall was mixed in July as the 90-day plus delinquency rate fell by 1.4%, hitting 10.8%, a new low for the year.

"Balance modifications may be playing a role in keeping 90-day plus delinquency rates low," said Fitch director David Austerweil. "The percentage of subprime loans with balance modifications has increased by 120% over the last year to reach a high of 5%. The 60-day plus delinquency rate for balance modified loans was 18% last month; it was 29.4% one year ago."

The reversal in CDS prices in July followed a price downturn in June, which was caused by slowing demand for Maiden Lane II assets that the Fed acquired from American International Group during the 2008 financial crisis.

The report from June reversed a seventh-month trend in which U.S. subprime credit default swaps rose each month.

Subprime CDS prices fell 1.8% in June, breaking a seven-month rally, before recovering again last month.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, August 15th, 2011

One potential solution for helping to alleviate the ailing housing markets in the nation, is to allow investors to acquire distressed properties in bulk so they can rehabilitate the houses and turn them into rentals, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.10 -0.28%).

Furthermore, leases on these properties should be set-up for the current, ailing borrower. This way the homeowner gets to stay in their property, and will trade off lower monthly living expenses with the loss of collateral investment.

The investment bank released a study called "REBUILD – What to do about U.S. Housing," in which analysts advocate for housing agencies, as well as banks and trusts, to voluntarily set up bulk sales programs for vacant properties in distress.

Analysts said the solution would capture the attention and involvement of investors by allowing them to increase the value of underlying collateral by buying in bulk.

In turn, Morgan Stanley said investors who participate in such a program would have to agree to rehabilitate the properties, while also constructing flexible lease-terms for renters and, in some cases, developing rent-to-own programs for borrowers.

"Lease back programs can be set up alongside bulk sales programs, which would allow investors to purchase properties currently inhabited by a delinquent borrower, with a pre-negotiated agreement to exchange their deed for a lease," Morgan Stanley said.

Analysts expect investors would only buy into the program if they are able to charge market rents and obtain tax breaks or deferrals.

"Tax incentives could also be used to subsidize rents for low-income renters, passing on partial rental income tax to renters and thereby increasing affordability," the report said.

The proposed plan also would establish a private-public lending platform to give investors a level of debt financing.

"This program could jump-start investor lending before private securitization or bank lending emerges, and do so at minimal risk to taxpayers as the collateral would have strict loan-to-value limits and include only already income-generating properties," the firm said.

Morgan Stanley believes the strategy would give distressed homeowners a second chance by allowing them to move into a lease, while taxpayers could reap the benefits of improved collateral recovery values at the housing agencies.

Mark Calabria, a real estate analyst with the Cato Institute, said an investor-driven program incorporating some government housing goals could become a burden if it's not crafted carefully.

"It's good to get that supply out there and have the prices reflect the fundamentals. I think it's almost inevitable so we should almost get it over with," he said.

At the same time, when dealing with distressed properties from Fannie and Freddie, Calabria said, it would be best to ensure the government is not going to place overly burdensome restrictions into the mix, creating a situation where investors are not pushing for the best possible outcomes.

He remembers other housing programs that "had a lot of problems" and "took a long time to implement." He said this type of situation, where everything is overly restrictive, "cuts against the whole desire to do bulk sales."

"You want to move as many properties as fast as possible," Calabria said.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, August 15th, 2011

The massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession.

A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0.

But the subsequent recovery has been anemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America’s fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion.

Monday, August 15th, 2011

As economic and political conditions continue to deteriorate, Moody's Analytics lowered its estimate on GDP growth to about 2% for the second half of 2011.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the economy isn't adding enough jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable, and he expects 1 million fewer jobs created though 2012 than previously projected.

"The odds of a renewed recession over the next 12 months, already one in three, will increase if stock prices continue to fall," Zandi said. "While it remains likely that the recovery will continue, the near-term economic outlook is significantly weaker than it was just a month ago."

At the start of 2011, the economic recovery "appeared healthy and ready to become self-sustaining," according to Moody's Analytics, as job growth improved, unemployment fell, and income and consumer spending accelerated.

But climbing gasoline and food prices and fallout from the Japanese earthquake in the spring coupled with the debt-ceiling issues, the Standard & Poor's downgrade of the country's debt rating and the renewed European debt crisis of late undermined business, consumer and investor confidence, Moody's said.

"The U.S. economy has suffered an extraordinary reversal of fortune," Zandi said.

All this prompted Zandi to lower estimates on GDP growth. Moody's Analytics previously expected growth of 3.5% in the final six months of 2011 and through 2012.

He said consumer confidence is crippled and corporate America is grappling with the influx of new regulation.

"Sentiment can be so harmed that businesses, consumers and investors freeze up, turning a gloomy outlook into a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is one of those times," Zandi said.

And with the huge loss of wealth in equity markets over the past few months, "a loss of faith in the economy can quickly become self-fulfilling." Zandi said every $1 decline in stock wealth reduces consumer spending by 3 cents and the losses of 2011 project to spending taking a $100 billion hit in the coming year, subsequently lowering GDP growth by two-thirds of a percentage point.

He said the Federal Reserve decision to maintain near-zero interest rates through the middle of 2013 helps bring down long-term interest rates and should spur increased investment.

"It was a bolder step than investors had expected, and it significantly lowers the bar for another round of quantitative easing," according to Zandi. "It now seems more likely than not that QE3 will begin in the next couple of months."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw

Monday, August 15th, 2011

With 64% of Americans expressing pessimism over the state of the economy in the second quarter, Fannie Mae's latest quarterly national housing survey shows consumers walking a tight rope into a housing market focused more on renters as employment worries persist.

That's the highest percentage of Americans with a negative view of the country's economic shape, according to Fannie Mae, which began the survey in the first quarter of 2010.

What's more, negative equity levels continue to rise nationwide as house prices remain suppressed. In the second quarter, 26% of mortgage borrowers were underwater, or owed more than the property is worth, compared to 23% in the first quarter.

And when mixed with rising costs of living and fewer jobs, more and more would-be homebuyers say they are unlikely to get a mortgage.

Survey results show 73% of single-family renters believe it would be difficult to qualify for a mortgage, with 33% citing their own credit histories as a hurdle.

The survey studied consumer confidence across generational lines and found 51% of Gen X (ages 35 to 44) claim it would be hard for them to qualify for a mortgage. When looking at Generation Y (ages 18 to 34) —  the cohort most likely to be first-time homebuyers— the number rises to 59%.

Even though pessimism abounds across the market, the younger cohort seems more optimistic about the future. Fifty-seven percent of Generation Y participants said they expect their personal situation to improve over the next year, compared to 42% in Gen X and 35% of baby boomers.

The survey, which is based on interviews with more than 3,000 Americans, found 26% worry about losing their job.

One-third of respondents perceive their savings to be sufficient, while 44% said household expenses have increased significantly in the past year.

"Consumers are more cautious due to concerns over employment and household finances," said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "As a result, consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market."

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, August 15th, 2011

Two real estate investment trusts are weathering recent economic challenges and remain on track to issue three new residential mortgage-backed securities deals in the back half of 2011.

Redwood Trust (RWT: 11.56 -0.77%), the only private investor to issue an RMBS deal since credit markets locked up in 2008, said two new deals announced months ago are still on track to get to market this year.

"We continue to target two additional securitizations in 2011, even as this goal seems a bit more challenging than it did a few months ago," Redwood said in its August financial statement. "We see signs things are slowly moving in the right direction for private market financing of residential mortgages. Still, we are not idly waiting for external factors to change."

At the end of June, Redwood said half its $404 million pipeline of primarily jumbo mortgages was being held for securitization. By the end of July, the REIT pushed the pipeline to $500 million.

Two Harbors Investment Corp. said in May it was partnering with Barclays Capital (BCS: 14.03 +0.72%) to issue an RMBS worth $250 million. The two firms closed a $100 million mortgage warehouse facility that month to gather prime jumbo loans from select originators.

Two Harbors said the facility has yet to purchase any assets or establish a program, but it was still on track.

"As anticipated, the company's initiatives in the three months ended June 30, focused on establishing underwriting guidelines and originator relationships, addressing regulatory requirements and building an infrastructure to support a sustainable issuance program," Two Harbors said in its August financial statement.

The MBS markets have weathered the recent Maiden Lane initiative from the Federal Reserve, continued declines in mortgage rates, an extremely volatile stock market and the downgrade of the country's debt rating by Standard & Poor's.

To go with these market disturbances, Washington has yet to take up any meaningful legislation to rebuild a private mortgage finance sector.

Still, Redwood said it continues to collect loans for when the private-label market does return.

"We are focused on buying loans from jumbo mortgage originators, realizing that it will likely take until 2012 to start to gain real traction," Redwood said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Monday, August 15th, 2011

Homebuilder confidence remains abysmally low as builders face stiff competition from distressed properties, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index.

Slowing on the new home sales front also is attributed to tighter underwriting guidelines and difficulties in moving existing real estate.

The index, which measures builder confidence, considers any index score over 50 favorable, but in the newly built, single-family home construction segment, the index score remains 15, suggesting anemic sales and worries over long-term stressors in the market.

Bob Nielsen, chairman of the NAHB, said 41% of respondents indicated they lost contracts because of a buyer's inability to sell an existing property.

The current sales index and the index measuring traffic of prospective buyers remained well below 50, as well, with index scores of 16 and 13, respectively.

In the Northeast, homebuilder confidence rose slightly, hitting 19 on the index scale, while the West and South held at 15 and 17, respectively. The index declined two points to 10 in the Midwest.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, August 15th, 2011

Mortgage balances on consumer credit reports continued to decline in the second quarter, but the pace may be slowing, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Mortgage balances overall dropped 0.2%, or roughly $20 billion from the previous quarter to just over $8 trillion. It represents 71% of total household debt in the country, which remained relatively flat over the previous year.

Households shed 3%, or $20 billion, of home equity lines of credit debt from the previous quarter.

According to the NY Fed, mortgage debt is now 8.3% and HELOC debt is 12.7% below their peaks in 2008.

Overall consumer debt fell again in the second quarter, dropping 8.6%, or roughly $1.08 trillion, to a total of $11.4 trillion.

Consumers currently hold the least amount of overall debt since the first quarter of 2007.

Andrew Haughwout, the vice president of the research and statistics group at the NY Fed, said, overall, outstanding consumer debt essentially flattened in the second quarter. This is evidence the pace at which consumers are deleveraging has slowed since the financial crisis in 2008.

"During the next few quarters we will gain a better understanding of whether this is a permanent or temporary break in the decline of total outstanding consumer debt," Haughwout said.

As a sign of this deleveraging, mortgage originations ended three straight quarters of increases, falling to $352 billion in new loans for the second quarter. Originations are 17% above the low in the fourth quarter of 2008 but still 3% below the level seen last year.

Fewer homeowners are transition into delinquency, according to the NY Fed. Current borrowers now account for 90% of all outstanding mortgages. The last time that level was reached was in the fourth quarter of 2008.

During the second quarter, roughly 284,000 borrowers fell into foreclosure, a 22.8% drop from the previous three months. Such a steep drop could be the continued delays in the process halted last year due to documentation issues.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Monday, August 15th, 2011

The Detroit area experienced a 9.6% surge in home sales in July with 4,563 properties sold compared to 4,164 a year earlier, according to Realcomp.

The data includes condo and residential homes sales across four Michigan counties in and around Detroit.

Home prices in the four-county metropolitan area climbed 8.8% to $78,000 from $71,665 a year earlier. On average, homes in the area stayed on the market 88 days, down from 99 days a year earlier.

Pending home sales that had yet to close across the entire MLS, which includes listings outside Michigan, were up 4.1% to 7,180 in July from 6,898 a year ago.

Inventory system-wide hit 32,007 units. Of those, 3,847 are foreclosures and 28,160 are non-foreclosures, Realcomp said.

Of the 5,701 homes closed last month, 689 were classified as short sales.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, August 15th, 2011

The U.S. stock market ended last week on a high note after a rocky five-day period following Standard & Poor's downgrade of the nation's debt rating.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday at 11,269, rising 125.71 points in the last day of a period that saw the benchmark move by more than 400 points four consecutive days.

Many on Wall Street remain antsy and the DJIA was up another 150 points in the first 15 minutes of trading Monday.

"Investors are cautious on bad economic data but also don't want to lose out on picking up bargains causing these big moves," said Manal Mehta with Branch Hill Capital. "I think this version simplifies why we have seen such wild moves."

Some of the economic news that keeps riling investors is the high unemployment rate and consumer sentiment and confidence that remain weak.

Consumer sentiment plummeted significantly this past month, reaching 2008 recession levels, according to the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan index report for August. The index score measuring overall consumer sentiment dropped to 54.9 from 63.7 in July.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.



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