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Archive for August, 2011

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Home sales in San Diego fell about 2% in July from a year earlier hurt by fewer purchases of homes priced above $300,000, according to a new report.

"The San Diego housing market cannot return to the robust sales levels of the past until some combination of events makes homes priced over $400,000 more affordable to buyers," according to Fidelity Pacific Real Estate. Demand for San Diego homes is down 27% from peak years, and July's decline outpaced a statewide drop in home sales of 1.4%.

Homes priced below $300,000 made up 45% of sales in July, an increase from their 42% market share a year earlier.

The inventory of homes for sale in San Diego far outpaces pending sales in every price category, but the disparity starts to widen further at prices in the $500,0000 range and becomes especially acute as home prices rise above $800,000, the report shows. For homes priced above $500,000, the available supply grows from five months to 13 months.

"We believe that current market prices explain the lack of increased sellers," Fidelity Pacific Real Estate said. "The inventory does not match up with the demand profile, a trend we have seen for a few years now."

Financing trends were steady in July, with 42% of buyers taking out conventional loans, 31% financing with support from the Federal Housing Administration or Veterans Affairs, and 25% paying all cash, according to the report.

One possible ray of light: Foreclosures fell 14% and short sales declined 10% in July.

"It is too early to tell if this change in distress sales is a trend or just a temporary blip," according to the report.

Write to Liz Enochs.

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Bert Lacativo, a former FBI agent, said the Securities and Exchange Commission whistleblower office is prepped for an influx of new claims and could make an early example of some companies.

Under direction from the Dodd-Frank Act, the SEC built a new whistleblower program designed to provide monetary awards to corporate employees who come forward with information. The leads must result in a penalty of at least $1 million. The new program officially launched last week.

"With the potential rewards available for whistleblowers, there will be an avalanche of complaints that the office will have to deal with," Lacativo said. "While I am confident that the office will work with deliberate diligence to deal with the complaints, I also believe that there will be early, prompt and decisive action taken to send clear messages to violators that the government is serious about ferreting out and ultimately deterring fraudulent activity."

Lacativo left the FBI and became the senior managing director of Mesirow Financial Consulting. He used to handle fraud issues at the bureau and now advises clients on new government efforts to pursue violations.

The whistleblower program is not without its controversy. Some commissioners at the SEC said the program would keep employees from reporting violations to internal controls at the companies. The SEC tweaked the program before it launched to allow employees to simultaneously report information to both the agency and their companies. If the company's internal investigation uncovers fraudulent behavior, the whistleblower could still receive a pay out.

Lacativo said these corporations should re-evaluate how employees can report internally and adjust them to dissuade potential whistleblowers from going to the government.

"Not only is there a lot of money at stake for companies and shareholders, there are reputational issues that you cannot put a price on," Lacativo said. "Any company that does not have an internal compliance program already in place, or has not re-evaluated internal controls since Dodd-Frank was approved, is at risk of suffering the type of serious monetary and reputational backlash that could result in irrevocable damage."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Hours after The Washington Post published a story Tuesday detailing the Obama administration's alleged plan to extend the government's role in the mortgage market, the Treasury Department quickly rejected the notion and stressed continued devotion to installing private capital dominance in mortgage financing once again.

But not all mortgage markets were soothed. The $4 billion Fannie Mae 5-year benchmark priced at over 35.5 basis points Wednesday morning. Jim Vogel, of FTN Financial said an extra half a basis point boost came from pricing in market shifts since the Post story ran.

"The article made some waves, which helped bring the denials, with the thought a new direction in policy — perhaps after the 2012 elections — could perhaps preserve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under different names and a different set of capital requirements," Vogel said in a note Wednesday.

The Post said influential White House staff who pushed for a smaller government role in housing finance reform are gone. But Vogel said regardless of personnel or ideology shifts, the idea of private capital taking over the role of the government-sponsored enterprises is farther away than last year — when the Treasury was drafting its white paper.

Treasury officials said they are sticking to the assertions put forth in the paper: Fannie and Freddie must be wound down and private capital must return.

Satya Thallam, director of the financial markets working group at the George Mason University Mercatus Center, balked at the idea of preserving the status-quo for Fannie and Freddie. He voiced concerns that keeping them or even renaming them under a similar structure could inevitably lead to another bailout.

So far, Fannie and Freddie owe the Treasury $142.2 billion in still compiling rescue funds.

"We can't simply wave our hands and say 'we're not going to bail you out again.' Pretty much everyone in the Bush administration would've felt confident saying that prior to March 2008," Thallam said.

The Post story asserted Treasury officials wanted to preserve the role of the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, which Thallam said would remain without the government-sponsored enterprises.

"This whole idea, for example, of the 30-year, fixed-rate-mortgage as the Holy Grail of mortgages just gets repeated without any consideration," Thallam said. "A reasonable position to take is that absent explicit federal support for this type of product, it'll still continue to exist but have a smaller market share."

Vogel pointed out that even if the Obama administration issued such a proposal, it would have a difficult time winding through a policy gridlock in Washington, leaving the only window for such action after the 2012 election.

"The difficulty of turning policy wish lists into reality is not going to change soon. We look for more ideas to be floated from time to time as housing continues to weigh down consumer balance sheets," Vogel said.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

California home sales fell 11% in July with 34,695 homes sold last month compared to 38,975 in June, real estate data firm DataQuick said Wednesday.

On a year-over-year basis, home sales dropped 1.4% from 35,202 in July of 2010. DataQuick considers the June-to-July drop inline with normal seasonal expectations.

While the median home price remained relatively unchanged, dropping to $252,000 in July from $253,000 in June, it's still down 6% from $268,000 a year ago.

The median sales price on a year-over-year basis has fallen in each of the past 10 months. The median price peaked at $484,000 in early 2007 before plummeting to $221,000 in April  2009.

Despite the sales price going up from the trough of the recession, existing homes sales still include a large number of distressed assets, with foreclosures representing 34.6% of the homes sold in California in July. That is down from 35.1% in June and 35.2% a year ago.

Meanwhile, short sales made up 17.3% of all resales in July.

Write to Kerri Panchuk.

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Billings at architecture firms continue to fall with another drop in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines, according to the American Institute of Architects.

The July architecture billings index slid to 45.1 from 46.3 the prior month in the steepest drop since February 2010, according to the AIA. Any score higher than 50 indicates increased billings. The index reflects the nine- to 12-month lag between architecture billings and construction spending.

"Business conditions for architecture firms have turned down sharply," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. "Late last year and in the first couple of months of this year there was a sense that we were slowly pulling out of the downturn, but now the concern is that we haven't yet reached the bottom of the cycle. Current high levels of uncertainly in the economy don’t point to an immediate turnaround."

The AIA said the new projects inquiry index for July fell to 53.7 in "a considerable slowdown" from 58.1 in their June report.

The index remained below in 50 across all regions of the country and all sectors of construction. The regional average was highest in the South at 46.9, followed by the West at 46.6, the Northeast 46.4, and Midwest 44.9.

The July index for commercial/industrial billings was 47.9, with institutional billings at 47.2, mixed practice at 47.1, and multifamily residential at 44.7.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Hope LoanPort and GMAC Mortgage, the servicing arm of Ally Financial (GJM: 22.43 -0.62%) will pilot a new portal in Maryland, allowing borrowers and servicers to exchange documents electronically before state-mandated foreclosure mediations.

Ally is funding the development of the portal and will be the first to use it. The portal is scheduled to go live in October. In Maryland, homeowners who receive a notice of foreclosure can meet with the servicer and discuss loss-mitigation options such as a modification or short sale, and the borrower has 25 days to opt-in.

Mediations create more work for foreclosure attorneys representing banks. In January, Fannie Mae increased the allowable fee servicers could pay these attorneys for the extra steps in the process.

Steve Abreu, president of GMAC Mortgage, said the servicer looks for ways to reduce the procedural burden and move the process along.

"Preparing for the mediation process can sometimes be overwhelming, and Hope LoanPort offers borrowers a convenient option to assist with the process," Abreu said. "We're proud to be the first mortgage servicer to use this web-based tool."

Hope LoanPort said the new portal would allow quicker access to the documents for servicers, housing counselors and attorneys working on behalf of the homeowner.

"For the first time, at-risk homeowners will be able to upload all of the documents necessary for foreclosure mediation without lost paperwork and with improved communication," according to Larry Gilmore, CEO of Hope LoanPort.

The portal also sends reminders about the mediation date and location, and allows the servicer to obtain all the information prior to the meeting so it can fully evaluate the borrower for any sort of alternative to foreclosure.

"The Hope LoanPort direct-to-consumer foreclosure mediation portal will make it easier for us to track the progress of those in mediation. It is a way for us to provide more efficient service for our customers," said Raymond Skinner, the Maryland Secretary for Housing and Community Development.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Bonds backed by the Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Affairs loans are beginning to show a few cracks, prompting Moody's Investors Service to place $3.5 billion of residential mortgage-backed securities issued through 39 transactions on watch for a possible downgrade.

Moody's warning on FHA/VA RMBS arrives two days after Barclays Capital (BCS: 14.03 +0.72%) issued a report saying investors should consider buying bonds backed by FHA/VA re-performing deals, which are essentially government-backed transactions where loans serving as collateral were cured after a default.

"Senior bonds from FHA-VA re-performer deals provide a very stable yield profile even in dire economic scenarios and look very attractive with leverage," according to Barclays.

But Moody's has a slightly different outlook when analyzing certain pools of FHA/VA RMBS. The advantage of investing in bonds backed by FHA/VA loans is the fact the Department of Housing and Urban Development agrees to pay claims on defaulted loans upfront, the ratings agency said.

However, HUD also places stiff penalties on servicers if there are irregularities in the annual audits, including an inability to stay up-to-date with HUD's loss-mitigation timelines. With servicers dealing with regulatory and judicial intrusions in the servicing process, they may be forced to avoid the time-sensitive HUD reimbursement requirements altogether, forcing them to pass some of the expenses on to the trustee holding the loans, Moody's contends.

"Servicers have recently come under a great deal of scrutiny due to staffing and process-related issues. In such a stressful environment, servicers may not always be able to follow the strict guidelines and time lines required by HUD," according to Moody's analysts. "As a result, we foresee an increase in self-curtailments, and any associated expenses that servicers pass through to the trusts will result in higher loss severities on defaulted loans."

Moody's admits FHA/VA loan delinquency levels have been relatively stable, but analysts believe that could change with home prices still falling and unemployment consistently high.

"FHA/VA borrowers are typically low-income borrowers with poor credit histories who have been affected by the weak economy and housing market," Moody's said. "Securitized FHA/VA pools typically have high delinquency levels at inception, with the majority of loans being 90-days late or more. Because of the insurance coverage loss severities and overall losses have been fairly low. Loss severities, which have been rising, are now currently around 12% on average."

Moody's said because "the level of losses depends primarily on the level of self-curtailments by servicers, we expect losses to rise with any increased scrutiny. We currently project losses of 1.64% of the original balance of outstanding securitized loans and 3.7% of the loans’ outstanding balance."

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) plans to introduce a bill after the August recess that would give homebuyers up to $20,000 for down payment assistance on a previously foreclosed property.

Ackerman calls it the Homestead Act 2, modeled after the original law signed by President Abraham Lincoln in 1862. That bill awarded Union Army veterans the ability to file an application and claim up to 160 acres of government land. For the next five years, the homesteader was required to improve the land building a home and growing crops.

Ackerman said his bill would provide the first 2 million eligible borrowers an opportunity to claim the subsidy and help cut into the overhang of property both previously in foreclosure and in existing inventory, too. The subsidy would come in the form of a loan to the owner-occupant, and one-fifth of it would be forgiven each year in the first five years of the homestead.

The bill would also provide a 10-year tax exemption for investors who buy a home and decide to rent it out.

To pay for the program, Ackerman said the bill would provide an incentive to companies for bringing up to $500 billion of offshore capital back to the U.S. The bill would reduce the corporate tax on repatriated earnings to 10%. The revenue from these new taxes would help pay for the program.

Ackerman said the bill would help clear the housing overhang of 3 million properties, which brought down home prices and continues to weigh on bank balance sheets. The exact number varies. CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.55 +0.55%) recently put it at 1.7 million. The Mortgage Bankers Association said 4.5 million.

The bill would probably have trouble moving through the Republican-controlled House Financial Services Committee during a time when any perception of more government spending could be stomped out.

Still, Ackerman stressed the need for some action from Washington to boost a still struggling housing market and the overall economy.

"This would clear the way for new housing starts, and put millions of Americans back to work. It would incentivize corporations to bring their cash cheaply back into the United States. In addition, the newly emancipated billions would further spur the economy," he said. "Everybody wins."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expect home prices to hit bottom by early 2012 as job growth expands in areas like Texas where comparably less overbuilding occurred in the decade leading up to the housing bust.

The study's authors — John Duca, David Luttrell and Anthony Murphy — admit the Fed's earlier prediction of price stabilization by mid-2010 was "dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices."

At the same time, they believe the negative impact of housing supply overhang has been overstated because the housing market is a regional business, where states with expanding job growth, such as Texas, could see a bottom soon, as economy recovers and the pace of household formation rises.

The Dallas Fed study showed most of the housing supply that could be deemed as "excessive" is limited to markets in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, which overbuilt in the 10 years leading up to the 2008 financial meltdown.

The researchers point to a few of the same culprits cited in other studies about causes of the current housing slowdown: a market with high levels of foreclosure, falling home values and tighter underwriting guidelines.

"Although the short-run outlook for the housing market is uncertain, it appears that new home construction and house prices at the national level will stabilize and start slowly recovering within the next year or so," they said.

While that's only six months off and the economy just underwent the shock of Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade the country's credit rating, the Dallas Fed report is in line with a forecast from JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.29 -0.53%), which recently predicted home prices would fall another 4% to 5%, before reaching a bottom in early 2012.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

[Update 1: HUD changed number of homes available to 40 from 90.]

The Department of Housing and Urban Development plans to sell real estate owned properties to public housing authorities, which will make the houses available to families affected by tornadoes in Joplin, Mo., and central Alabama earlier this year.

HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said nearly 40 REO properties will be offered at a discount to the housing authorities, which plan to lease of sell the houses within two months.

"After witnessing first-hand the size and scope of the devastation in Alabama, I knew we must do more," Donovan said. "For the first-time, HUD has designed a pilot program that will bring families affected by a significant disaster closer to stability by quickly providing them with an opportunity to purchase or lease a home. We hope to be able to use this draft purchase agreement as a model to assist other families displaced after a disaster."

The properties being offered to displaced Joplin, Mo., residents are within a 20-mile radius of the city and spread across three states because of the city's proximity to Kansas and Oklahoma.

HUD has provided $350,000 grants to Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, Ala., and Joplin, Mo., to help the communities address long-term recovery needs following the weather disasters.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw



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