The past few weeks of acquisitions and deals among REO asset managers shows more bets are being made that a long-awaited supply of these properties may finally be hitting the market.
At the end of June, Homeland Security Capital Corp. a government contractor for a variety of work including disaster relief, moved into the space by acquiring Default Servicing LLC, the former REO manager of the Law Offices of David J. Stern, which ceased foreclosure work in March. A week later, Stewart Lender Services acquired PMH Financial, which manages more than $2.5 billion in properties.
First American Financial Corp. (FAF: 15.07 +0.67%) is in the process of finalizing the development of an REO asset management firm based in Dallas that would replace the one spun off in the CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.55 +0.55%) separation last year.
Then, on Monday, Default Resource's REO management branch, Executive Asset Management, signed a deal with Georgia-based United Bank. EAM will handle the entire REO process for the bank, which has approval from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to acquire failed bank assets.
Default Resource brought in James Zeldin as the executive vice president. He's spent 20 years in the space and had a hand in setting up REO shops within Fidelity, now Lender Processing Services (LPS: 16.77 +1.33%) and the Ocwen Financial Corp.'s (OCN: 13.81 +0.44%) REO vendor Altisource.
"I think we're at a point now where servicers are struggling with identifying and training talented individuals to support loss-mitigation initiatives. But I think you'll get the inventory break over the next 12 to 18 months from these same investors and servicers," Zeldin said in an interview with HousingWire Tuesday. "They are now trying to retrain and develop their REO solutions suites and engage or begin to engage asset management companies who can scale to the size they need."
Stewart Lender CEO Jason Nadeau said the REO space came alive in the past year with companies looking to take advantage of the inventory of properties.
"We did our deal to have a much larger operational capability and the market footprint in the REO management business," Nadeau said.
According to RealtyTrac, recent foreclosure delays pushed up to 1 million filings that should have occurred this year into 2012 and beyond. And LPS data show that for every REO property sold, another 50 come in behind it onto the bank or government-sponsored enterprise balance sheet.
This, Zeldin said, is putting more pressure on banks to finally unload more inventory.
"We're increasing staff to get ready for that," Zeldin said. "I would absolutely expect an increase in inventory over the next 12 to 18 months. I'm personally expecting that a lot faster. I believe we're going to see macro forces pushing these institutions to do more REO liquidation."
Still, pessimism persists from those who've been hearing such calls for some time. Tom Moon, REO broker and owner of Pacific Moon Real Estate in California, said he remains doubtful.
"I think it's a continuation of the same hopefulness we have been hearing for years," Moon said. "I don’t think anyone has a private red telephone line to the 'source.' "
Still, there are signs the largest holders of these properties are putting more priority on unloading.
Freddie Mac sold a record number of REO in the first quarter, roughly 31,000 properties. And combined with Fannie Mae, the two mortgage giants held 218,000 REO as of the end of the first quarter. But that was pared down from 234,000 at the end of 2010. Bank of America (BAC: 7.2115 -1.21%) currently holds $17.9 billion in nonperforming loans or foreclosed properties, which dropped 3.3% from the previous quarter.
Eugenio Garrote, the REO director for the Miami-based real estate firm Best Beach, said his market in Southeast Florida needs to get these properties sold.
"The demand is there. We routinely get multiple offers from owner-occupants and investors," Garrote said, echoing pleadings from these brokers in the hardest hit states that have attracted investor attention. "We need the inventory of REO to be released from the courts' and banks' shadow inventory at a rate to keep the economy balanced. I'm not advocating to fully flood the market all at once, but right now, Southeast Florida is a mess."
Servicers are starting to revive the foreclosure process after the self-imposed moratoriums last fall. BofA Chief Financial Officer Bruce Thompson said this is especially true in nonjudicial states. For Zeldin, the REO wave will come in a matter of time, but the answer will not come solely from the banks, rather Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"REO is one of the few things government has complete control over, and everyone's looking to Fannie and Freddie for guidance," Zeldin said. "The question becomes: When's the inflow?"
Write to Jon Prior.
Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.
CMBS 2.0 is a very tech savvy name. This is especially fitting as the Internet is perhaps the expanding market's biggest challenge.
Take for example the closure of Borders. Access to information via technological means no doubt contributed to the downfall of the bookstore.
Amazon is also asking the state of California to do away with taxes on electronic purchases. The trend of driving consumers to the Web is a natural progression of the world's growing use of technology.
But, as with anything, progress comes at a great cost.
This drying up of demand for physical retail space — Borders used to be the 44th largest commercial tenant in the country, according to Trepp data — is a clear warning sign for investors in CMBS 2.0, the next generation of commercial mortgage-backed securities.
And it's not just increased vacancies in large strip malls across America investors should be concerned with. There is also something to be said of Borders closing, as final bidding resulted in no offers, according to Standard & Poor's.
But this is not a warning for CMBS 2.0 entirely.
Ethan Penner of CBRE Capital Partners, noted in a recent presentation that the CMBS market is on shaky ground overall. CMBS maturities are expected to nearly triple by 2017. Nearly 50% of these loans are underwater, a number that will grow to 75% by 2015, he noted.
This is somewhat mitigated in the tighter underwriting and ratings methodologies seen in CMBS 2.0. But as the need to refinance outstanding debt grows, so will the need to service it via securitization.
Yet, the macroeconomic fundamentals are not only shifting away from retail centers, but the recovery clearly cooled in the second quarter. Demand from discretionary spenders will remain weak and restricted by employment jitters and stagnant incomes. In such an environment, it is hard to envision economic engines kick starting much into next year.
Meanwhile, home prices continue to decline and credit remains restricted. Economists continue to revise growth estimates downward. This is hardly a vote for greater consumer confidence in the absence of a third round of quantitative easing.
CMBS 2.0 will continue to bull run. Demand will grow for medical complexes and multifamily housing. But when it comes to larger retail investments, CMBS 2.0 investors should choose carefully.
Write to Jacob Gaffney.
Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.
Tags: Amazon, Borders, CBRE Capital Partners, CMBS 2.0, Standard & Poor's, Trepp
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