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Archive for July, 2011

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

U.S. Bancorp (USB: 27.79 0.00%) reported net income of $1.2 billion, or 60 cents per share, in the second quarter, up 57% from one year ago.

Total revenue at the bank was $4.69 billion, up slightly from $4.52 billion a year ago. But it cut the provision for credit losses more than half, totaling $572 million in the second quarter, down from $1.1 billion one year ago and $755 million in the previous quarter.

Net chargeoffs for residential mortgages were $119 million, or 1.46% of average loans outstanding, down from $138 million, or 2.06% of average loans outstanding, in the year-ago quarter.

Mortgage banking revenue at U.S. Bank was flat at $239 million, down slightly from $243 million one year ago but up from $199 million in the previous quarter.

The Minneapolis-based regional bank wrote $8 billion in new mortgages, down from more than $10.5 billion in the same quarter last year and $12.1 billion in the first three months of 2011.

U.S. Bank still holds more than $1.9 billion in outstanding subprime mortgages, down only slightly from $2 billion the previous quarter. Of these, 7.46% were in 30-day delinquency or worse.

"Our business lines performed well this quarter despite on-going economic headwinds and a very modest demand for new lending," said U.S. Bank CEO Richard Davis. "The banking industry continues to face a difficult and increasingly complex environment in which economic uncertainty, regulation and changes in customer and competitor behavior have an impact on how we allocate resources and manage operations, as well as on how we position ourselves for future earnings growth."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

A New Jersey man on Tuesday admitted to conspiring to participate in a scheme which caused lenders to release more than $40.8 million based on fraudulent mortgage-loan applications, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

Charles Harvath, of Lodi, pleaded guilty to one count each of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. According to documents filed in the case and statements made during the legal proceedings, 33-year-old Harvath and his co-conspirators recruited straw buyers who had good credit scores, but lacked the financial resources to qualify for a mortgage loan, to purchase a number of properties in New Jersey, Georgia and South Carolina.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

[Update 1: Updates IPO pricing with first-day trading status.]

Shares of real estate site Zillow (Z: 26.952 +1.25%) more than doubled during its Wednesday morning launch as a publicly traded company.

The company priced its initial public offering of 3.46 million shares of common stock at $20 per share on Tuesday afternoon.

The shares began trading Wednesday morning on the NASDAQ stock exchange and hit $44 a share Wednesday morning for a gain of 120%. It rose as as high as $60 per share in morning trading before dipping back down into the $33 price range.

The price set for the IPO debut was higher than its original range of $12 to $14 share, which it raised last week to $16 to $18 per share. At $20, the shares would raise about $69.2 million before underwriting fees and expenses.

Underwriters for the IPO have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 519,300 shares of stock to cover over-allotments.

Concurrent with the completion of the initial public offering, Zillow will complete a private placement of 274,999 shares of its common stock, also at $20 per share, to certain existing investors in the Seattle-based real estate firm.

CitiGroup (C: 30.43 +0.16%) is acting as sole book-running manager for the offering.  Allen & Co. LLC is acting as senior co-manager and Pacific Crest Securities, ThinkEquity LLC, and First Washington Corp. are acting as co-managers.

Zillow operates a website that provides information about homes, real estate listings and mortgages.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

The origination of new mortgages remains at historic lows. But, on the bright side, just about every single one meets "qualified mortgage" requirements proving the borrower's ability-to-repay, according to a report from the Government Accountability Office.

New restrictions and increased oversight of mortgage origination come into effect with the opening of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on July 21. This change in regulatory structure is a mandate of Dodd-Frank financial reform.

Under Dodd-Frank financial reform, a mortgage lender is presumed to have satisfied the ability-to-repay requirement and receives some protection from liability when it originates a “qualified mortgage.”

There are nine standards that must be achieved for a QM. And when the GAO looked at data on mortgages originated from 2000 to 2010, it found the vast majority of recent vintage home loans meet these criteria (Click on chart below to expand.):

The report states that mortgage originators are employing conservative standards when writing new loans and sticking with traditional products.

"Mortgages with balloon payments have been associated with repayment problems, likely due to the payment shock that occurs when the loan balance becomes due, or difficulty in refinancing at the end of the loan term, especially if the home value depreciated," the report states.

"Among prime, near-prime, and government-insured mortgages, almost 100% of the originations each year did not have balloon payments," it concludes, in discussing the 2009-2010 period.

The report is skewed in the mid-2000s as there is an abundance of incomplete data. Many of the subprime mortgages, for example, did not require proof of ability-to-repay and therefore information on employment and income may be missing.

Considering this, conclusions from the data are unreliable, the report states.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

The rate of delinquent loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities declined in June but remains higher than 9%, as it has for all of 2011, according to Moody's Investors Service.

Analysts said the agency's delinquency tracker fell 16 basis points last month to 9.02% from 9.18% in May. Four new CMBS deals worth more than $6.2 billion offset the roughly $5.7 billion of legacy CMBS that exited the space during June. If not for those four deals that closed last month, the delinquency tracker would have only slid to 9.12% for June, according to analysts.

The balance on delinquent loans fell by about $970 million in June to $54.74 billion from $55.71 billion a month earlier. The number of total delinquent loans in April fell to 3,944 from 4,017 in May.

Moody's said delinquent multifamily loans had the largest drop last month with a $700 million decline, while the balance of delinquent hotel loans fell by $277 million and retail loans fell by $229 million.

Moody's specially serviced loan tracker fell to 12.35% in June from 12.62% the prior month.

"While this is the second consecutive month of decline, the 333 basis point spread to the delinquency rate indicates a likely continuation of elevated delinquency levels," according to Tad Philipp, director of commercial real estate research at Moody's.

Analysts said June was the fourth-straight month loan resolutions outnumbered new delinquencies at $4.1 billion to $3.1 billion. The opposite was true a year ago, when delinquencies outpaced resolutions every month.

While the delinquency rate in Nevada fell nearly 200 basis points in June, the state still has highest rate at 22.7%, which is nearly two times the national average, according to Moody's.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

Mortgage default notice filings in California fell 19.2% in the second quarter over last year, establishing a four-year low when it comes to new foreclosures in the Golden State.

Real estate data firm DataQuick made that report Tuesday, saying it's impossible to come up with a single reason to explain why foreclosure filings in the state fell from 70,051 last year to 56,633 in the most recent second quarter.

DataQuick said it's likely the drop comes from a confluence of factors, including policy changes, political decisions and changes within the mortgage servicing industry.

“A lot of theories are being floated as to why the numbers are down. Bank policy changes. Legal challenges. Politics. Holding back temporarily so as not to flood the market. The fact of the matter is that no one really knows, outside of lending and servicing industry insiders," said John Walsh, DataQuick's president. "One thing is certain: Homeowner distress spreads fastest when home price declines are steepest. And it now appears likely that, barring some new economic shock, the worst of the price declines are behind us."

Citing examples, DataQuick said the statewide median home sales price hit $250,000 in quarter two, down from $260,000 a year earlier. Compared to first-quarter 2009 levels when foreclosure activity was at an all-time high, today's median price is much improved compared to the $227,000 median set two years ago. The median home price nationwide is now at $189,000, according to Realtor.com. That is mostly unchanged from last year when the median hit $190,000.

Of the loans still going into default, most of them were originated in the 2005-to-2007 period, DataQuick said.

The median origination quarter for defaulted loans is the third-quarter of 2006. Most of the loans made during that period are either owned or serviced by institutions other than the loan's originator.

The most common names to surface in the Golden State foreclosure process were JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.2492 -0.64%), Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.36 +1.07%) and Bank of America (BAC: 7.2115 -1.21%).

Write to Kerri Panchuk.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

The past few weeks of acquisitions and deals among REO asset managers shows more bets are being made that a long-awaited supply of these properties may finally be hitting the market.

At the end of June, Homeland Security Capital Corp. a government contractor for a variety of work including disaster relief, moved into the space by acquiring Default Servicing LLC, the former REO manager of the Law Offices of David J. Stern, which ceased foreclosure work in March. A week later, Stewart Lender Services acquired PMH Financial, which manages more than $2.5 billion in properties.

First American Financial Corp. (FAF: 15.07 +0.67%) is in the process of finalizing the development of an REO asset management firm based in Dallas that would replace the one spun off in the CoreLogic (CLGX: 14.55 +0.55%) separation last year.

Then, on Monday,  Default Resource's REO management branch, Executive Asset Management, signed a deal with Georgia-based United Bank. EAM will handle the entire REO process for the bank, which has approval from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to acquire failed bank assets.

Default Resource brought in James Zeldin as the executive vice president. He's spent 20 years in the space and had a hand in setting up REO shops within Fidelity, now Lender Processing Services (LPS: 16.77 +1.33%) and the Ocwen Financial Corp.'s (OCN: 13.81 +0.44%) REO vendor Altisource.

"I think we're at a point now where servicers are struggling with identifying and training talented individuals to support loss-mitigation initiatives. But I think you'll get the inventory break over the next 12 to 18 months from these same investors and servicers," Zeldin said in an interview with HousingWire Tuesday. "They are now trying to retrain and develop their REO solutions suites and engage or begin to engage asset management companies who can scale to the size they need."

Stewart Lender CEO Jason Nadeau said the REO space came alive in the past year with companies looking to take advantage of the inventory of properties.

"We did our deal to have a much larger operational capability and the market footprint in the REO management business," Nadeau said.

According to RealtyTrac, recent foreclosure delays pushed up to 1 million filings that should have occurred this year into 2012 and beyond. And LPS data show that for every REO property sold, another 50 come in behind it onto the bank or government-sponsored enterprise balance sheet.

This, Zeldin said, is putting more pressure on banks to finally unload more inventory.

"We're increasing staff to get ready for that," Zeldin said. "I would absolutely expect an increase in inventory over the next 12 to 18 months. I'm personally expecting that a lot faster. I believe we're going to see macro forces pushing these institutions to do more REO liquidation."

Still, pessimism persists from those who've been hearing such calls for some time. Tom Moon, REO broker and owner of Pacific Moon Real Estate in California, said he remains doubtful.

"I think it's a continuation of the same hopefulness we have been hearing for years," Moon said. "I don’t think anyone has a private red telephone line to the 'source.' "

Still, there are signs the largest holders of these properties are putting more priority on unloading.

Freddie Mac sold a record number of REO in the first quarter, roughly 31,000 properties. And combined with Fannie Mae, the two mortgage giants held 218,000 REO as of the end of the first quarter. But that was pared down from 234,000 at the end of 2010. Bank of America (BAC: 7.2115 -1.21%) currently holds $17.9 billion in nonperforming loans or foreclosed properties, which dropped 3.3% from the previous quarter.

Eugenio Garrote, the REO director for the Miami-based real estate firm Best Beach, said his market in Southeast Florida needs to get these properties sold.

"The demand is there. We routinely get multiple offers from owner-occupants and investors," Garrote said, echoing pleadings from these brokers in the hardest hit states that have attracted investor attention. "We need the inventory of REO to be released from the courts' and banks' shadow inventory at a rate to keep the economy balanced. I'm not advocating to fully flood the market all at once, but right now, Southeast Florida is a mess."

Servicers are starting to revive the foreclosure process after the self-imposed moratoriums last fall. BofA Chief Financial Officer Bruce Thompson said this is especially true in nonjudicial states. For Zeldin, the REO wave will come in a matter of time, but the answer will not come solely from the banks, rather Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"REO is one of the few things government has complete control over, and everyone's looking to Fannie and Freddie for guidance," Zeldin said. "The question becomes: When's the inflow?"

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

The idea of homeownership as an aspirational goal may no longer carry much weight as college graduates enter the work force saddled with high student loan debt and older Americans focus on retirement.

Rod Dubitsky, an analyst with PIMCO, said the overall question that looms large over the mortgage industry is: Who is going to buy housing in the next 10 years?

In a report titled, "Are There Any Rungs Left on the Housing Ladder?", Dubitsky dives into demographic data, painting a bleak picture for home sellers who are largely dependent on two groups of buyers: veteran homeowners who now have less desire to buy homes as they focus on retirement, and young buyers who are getting paid less while carrying significant student debt.

In downturns, markets generally look to first-time homebuyers to pull the levers of demand, but Dubitsky says the housing economy should not be overconfident when focusing on this group.

Why the change? According to Dubitsky this demographic is struggling financially, pushing them on a lower rung of the housing ladder. While in the past, the young demographic functioned as the market's first-time homebuyers, today they are more likely to be long-term renters based on their financial situations.

In 2008, the average college graduate with a bachelor's degree was saddled with more than $23,ooo in student loan debt, Dubitsky said.

And student debts are expected to go even higher, as salaries are dropping, according to Dubitsky. The average median salary for recent graduates fell to $27,000 in 2010, compared to $30,000 in 2007.

Dubitsky said the ability of these borrowers to make their way into the housing market is contingent on whether they have the opportunity to save money. But the statistics on this point remain grim with the average student debt now equal to a 15% down payment on a median-priced home.

"We believe that some amount of the reduction in graduate earnings power and rise in debt is a longer-term phenomenon that could serve to limit college graduate home purchasing power for the foreseeable future," the report concluded.

The younger demographic is not the only group falling down the ladder. While young buyers are now more likely to rent than own, older homeowners are less likely to upgrade into larger homes or invest in second properties. Many older workers are aware they have to contribute 10% more of their pay to their retirement savings, which means less disposable income.

"This could be manifested in permanently postponed home purchases, reduced tendencies to upsize, lower likelihood of buying a retirement home, more affordable post-retirement rental choices," according to Dubitsky. "All of this suggests downsized housing choices — one home instead of two, rent rather than own, smaller place rather than large. These choices could serve to reduce the dollars committed to housing investment."

Write to Kerri Panchuk.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

Mortgage default rates fell about 2.1% in June, as Americans lowered debt levels, according to the latest Standard & Poor's/Experian indices.

The index for first mortgages showed a default rate of about 2.02% in June down from 2.23% in May and lower than the 3.44% a year ago, according to data analysis by the ratings agency and credit-reporting bureau. The default rate for second mortgages decreased to 1.4% in June from 1.42% in May and 2.41% a year earlier.

David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee, said default rates are declining across consumer credit categories.

"More importantly for the economy, the Federal Reserve reported that revolving credit — which includes bank cards — rose in May for the first time since 2008," Blitzer said. "Combined with the improving default experience we are seeing, this is a positive sign for an economy suffering from a lack of consumer spending."

He said consumer default rates in Miami rose to 5.41% in June from 5.31% the prior month.

"The lingering effects of the housing bust can be seen in Miami where default rates remain higher than other cities," Blitzer said.

Chicago saw the biggest increase in June with the default rate in the area climbing to 2.59% last month from 2.37% in May. The rate in Dallas inched up to 1.59% from 1.58% in May. Meanwhile the default rate in New York fell to 1.82% in June from 1.94%, and it declined in Los Angeles to 2.17% from 2.39%, according to the S&P/Experian indices.

However, the rate for June in each city tracked fell substantially when compared to the year-ago period.

S&P and Experian monitor the default rates of consumers with auto loans, bankcards, first mortgages and second mortgage liens.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

CMBS 2.0 is a very tech savvy name. This is especially fitting as the Internet is perhaps the expanding market's biggest challenge.

Take for example the closure of Borders. Access to information via technological means no doubt contributed to the downfall of the bookstore.

Amazon is also asking the state of California to do away with taxes on electronic purchases. The trend of driving consumers to the Web is a natural progression of the world's growing use of technology.

But, as with anything, progress comes at a great cost.

This drying up of demand for physical retail space — Borders used to be the 44th largest commercial tenant in the country, according to Trepp data — is a clear warning sign for investors in CMBS 2.0, the next generation of commercial mortgage-backed securities.

And it's not just increased vacancies in large strip malls across America investors should be concerned with. There is also something to be said of Borders closing, as final bidding resulted in no offers, according to Standard & Poor's.

But this is not a warning for CMBS 2.0 entirely.

Ethan Penner of CBRE Capital Partners, noted in a recent presentation that the CMBS market is on shaky ground overall. CMBS maturities are expected to nearly triple by 2017. Nearly 50% of these loans are underwater, a number that will grow to 75% by 2015, he noted.

This is somewhat mitigated in the tighter underwriting and ratings methodologies seen in CMBS 2.0. But as the need to refinance outstanding debt grows, so will the need to service it via securitization.

Yet, the macroeconomic fundamentals are not only shifting away from retail centers, but the recovery clearly cooled in the second quarter. Demand from discretionary spenders will remain weak and restricted by employment jitters and stagnant incomes. In such an environment, it is hard to envision economic engines kick starting much into next year.

Meanwhile, home prices continue to decline and credit remains restricted. Economists continue to revise growth estimates downward. This is hardly a vote for greater consumer confidence in the absence of a third round of quantitative easing.

CMBS 2.0 will continue to bull run. Demand will grow for medical complexes and multifamily housing. But when it comes to larger retail investments, CMBS 2.0 investors should choose carefully.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @jacobgaffney.



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