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Archive for May, 2011

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

Troubled borrowers who default on their mortgages are less likely to develop long-term poor credit behavior, when compared to those who default on other kinds of loans, according to a new study from TransUnion.

Consumers who default on other bills and lines of credit, such as credit cards and auto loans, are more likely to miss payments in the future. The results are meant to be used by lenders to help determine which kind of borrower is better apt to handle more credit.

The report found borrowers who had mortgage-only defaults on their records performed far better when they took out new loans when compared to borrowers who defaulted on multiple lines of credit.

For example, when assessing data on new auto loans, mortgage-only defaulters had a 5.8% 60-plus day delinquency rate, while those that had multiple delinquencies on credit cards and other loans had a 13.1% delinquency rate.

TransUnion said these statistics are fighting against the ongoing stereotype that mortgage-only defaulters benefited from the 'excess liquidity theory' in that a failure to pay their mortgage led to the borrowers having more money to cover other credit. The credit reporting agency said the reverse appears to be true, and the mortgage defaults have more to do with economic conditions, suggesting that these are borrowers with strong credit and potential to stay current on loans.

When it came to new credit cards, mortgage-only delinquent borrowers had an 11.4% default rate, while those with multiple delinquencies had a 27.1% 60-plus day default rate.

"This recession was unique in that certain consumers who defaulted on mortgages would otherwise be good credit risks," according to Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "It appears their actions were driven more by difficult economic circumstances than by any inherent inability to manage debt. Also, these results are well-aligned with our past research into the reversal of the payment hierarchy dynamic. Bottom line — consumers prioritize their payments based on product preference when they find themselves constrained financially. In that sense, loan defaults have always been strategic."

TransUnion reviewed data from a random sample of 5 million consumers and ended up weeding its sample down to 129,000 new accounts that had the data points needed to make comparisons between the two borrowing subsets.

Earlier this week, a new report sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research showed homeowners at least two-months delinquent on their mortgage may be more apt to strategically default if offered a mortgage modification despite the damage to their credit.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

[Update 1: Adds Assured Guaranty comment]

Bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI: 12.04 +0.33%) confirmed Tuesday that the New York attorney general subpoenaed information relating to some of the residential mortgage-backed securities complaints filed by MBIA.

MBIA is not under investigation in the probe, sources familiar with the matter say. The AG is seeking information related to the mortgage origination and securitization activities of some banks.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday a total of four bond insurers were subpoenaed for information related to the probe: Ambac Financial Group, MBIA, Syncora Holdings and Assured Guaranty (AGO: 15.50 +1.97%).

Ambac declined to comment on the investigation, and representatives for Syncora weren't immediately available.

Assured released a statement saying, “We support the  attorney general with  their investigation which will hopefully accelerate the resolution of mortgage origination, securitization and servicing problems. At this time, we prefer not to confirm whether or not we have received a subpoena.”

Bloomberg also reported that New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is expanding his probe of mortgage securitizations to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 37.25 -0.64%), UBS AG (UBS: 13.97 -0.07%) and Deutsche Bank AG (DB: 44.00 +1.38%).

Schneiderman wants additional information regarding claims the bond insurers paid to investors, as well as details about the settlements the companies signed with the banks that bundled home loans into MBS, according to the Journal.

Also Monday, California Attorney General Kamala Harris announced a 25-person task force to look into mortgage fraud in the Golden State.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.


Monday, May 23rd, 2011

Second-quarter foreclosure auction postings in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area fell 15% from a year earlier, dropping to a nine-quarter low, according to new statistics from Foreclosure Listing Service.

The North Texas-based foreclosure data firm looks at courthouse filings across DFW. From April to June, 13,310 foreclosure auction notices were filed in the area, down from 15,715 a year ago. The report includes foreclosure statistics for the North Texas counties of Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton. The filings for June are included because the deadline to have a property in next month's auction has passed.

Foreclosure Listing Service said mid-year home postings for 2011 are down over last year, making it the first time a year-over-year decline has been recorded in 11 years for this period.

"On a quarter-to-quarter comparison, second-quarter's posting level was down 18% from the 16,194 notices filed for the first quarter of this year," said George Roddy, president of Foreclosure Listing Service. "All four counties within the DFW Metroplex had a decline in second quarter's posting activity compared to one year earlier; and, in all four counties, quarterly postings dropped to their lowest level in nine or more quarters."

The deepest decline in foreclosure postings occurred in Collin County, where the number of foreclosure postings fell 18% year-over-year.

The state, as a whole, is poised to recover from the nation's economic malaise faster than other states with more severe housing problems, according to a recent Standard & Poor's report that noted that Texas' housing market didn't see the boom-and-bust cycle that others did.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

Elizabeth Warren, the architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, is still mum about who will be serving the agency as director, but still very vocal about defending the bureau she helped create to oversee mortgage and consumer lending in the United States.

In written testimony prepared for Tuesday's hearing in front of the House subcommittee on TARP, financial services and bailouts of public and private programs, Warren lashed back at criticisms from lawmakers who claim the bureau lacks sufficient oversight.

"There have been many overblown claims about the nature of the CFPB’s power," Warren said. "Critics have claimed that the CFPB is 'the most powerful regulatory agency that’s ever been put together,' that it is 'the most powerful agency ever created, and that it 'doesn’t have to explain what it does to anybody.' "

Warren plans to dispute those barbs in her testimony.

"These claims disregard the limits on the consumer bureau’s authorities and the very meaningful oversight that Congress imposed over its functioning — oversight that is consistent with that which exists over other independent agencies," she will tell subcommittee members.

Warren said the CFPB is limited by the Administrative Procedure Act and remains one of only three agencies that is required to gather information from small businesses about the impact of the bureau's rules on the firms.

"We are also specifically required to consider the benefits and costs of any proposed rules to consumers and providers," Warren said in her prepared testimony. "The CFPB’s activities are subject to judicial review, ensuring that the CFPB operates within the constraints set by Congress and the U.S. Constitution."

Warren added that the CFPB is the only bank regulator that can be overruled by a council made up of other federal agencies and its funding levels are limited by monetary limits set by Congress. Warren said the agency has to submit annual financial reports to Congress, and the CFPB's director — whoever that will be — must report before Congress twice each year regarding the bureau's activities.

In addition, audits will be conducted by Government Accountability Office, and the Federal Reserve will review the bureau's activities and report its findings to Congress and the public.

"Recent proposals to alter the CFPB’s structure — including those that the House Financial Services Committee recently passed — overlook the many constraints already in place," Warren said. "The work facing the new bureau is very challenging; additional restrictions would undermine the consumer bureau before it even begins its work of protecting American families."

Warren's testimony in front of the subcommittee will come after months of debate over the role of the CFPB and of Elizabeth Warren herself. Lawmakers proposed bills earlier in the year to lesson the new agency's power, even proposing alternatives such as a CFPB that is run by a committee rather than a single director.

While Warren is still considered as the front-runner to serve as the agency's director, a leader has yet to be named. And some congressmen are attempting to harness the agency's power by at least dissolving the director role.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

Florida circuit court judges are not surprised state lawmakers have decided not to renew $6 million in funding to support foreclosure courts that were set up to push through a backlog of foreclosure cases in the Sunshine State.

In fact, courts in South Florida said the program was set up to run for a year to give court clerks and judges a chance to deal with a hefty backlog in cases, and all employees hired with the $6 million in funding last year knew their employment was temporary.

"We will be losing four case managers, four assistants and two senior judges who were dedicated full time to foreclosures," said Chief Judge Peter Blanc with the 15th Judicial Circuit at the Palm Beach County Courthouse. "However, when we were given the resources to hire the economic recovery team to assist with foreclosures, we knew going in that the funding was only approved for the year."

Blanc said it's too early to tell what the loss of resources will do to the courthouse's ability to keep up with foreclosure cases.

"We will regroup and do our best to meet the needs of the court users with existing resources," he said.

Sheila Mann, public information officer for Florida's 20th Judicial Circuit Court, said lawmakers gave the courts "this one lump sum that was divided among the circuits."

She said the staff hired to help in five counties knew the jobs would be gone as of June 30.

The program created to handle a backlog of Florida foreclosures ended up getting the moniker "rocket docket," which became the subject of controversy when consumer advocates, including the American Civil Liberties Union, accused foreclosure courts earlier in the year of rushing cases through and violating procedural rules.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

One of the challenges facing the housing market is determining a market consensus for home sales before the numbers are released.

The federal new home sales report, due out Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales report, due out Friday, offer a gauge of economic momentum. Americans are typically very confident when more and more are buying homes.

Preferably, clear consensus makes managing residential property portfolios easier as market fundamentals are locked into homebuying. However, economists and investment banks alike fail to reach a precise consensus on the latest weekly home sales.

Market commentators at Econoday see tomorrow's new home sales as hitting somewhere between 285,000 to 320,000 units. That's a broad range when considering the consensus stands at 300,000.

Société Générale expects more retrenchment than Econoday. The number of new homes going to contract probably fell by 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 287,000 in April — a touch below the first quarter average of 294,000. That's an estimation that is nearly outside of the wide consensus listed above.

"While the number of dwellings on the market is expected to slide by 2.2% to a record low of 279,000 during the reference period, the stock of unsold homes liked edged two ticks higher to 7.5 months’ supply," write the SocGen analysts.

The estimate for pending home sales is rosier.

"The recent uptrend in home-purchase mortgage applications suggests that the number of existing dwellings going to contract likely rose by 2.1% in April, boosting the cumulative increase since January to 8.1%," SocGen writes. "Our projection, if realized, would be consistent with existing home purchases climbing to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million in the National Association of Realtors’ May report – the strongest selling pace since the corresponding period of 2010."

However, analysts at JPMorgan (JPM: 37.25 -0.64%) say the lagging numbers, while hard to precisely quantify and not inspiring much confidence, are not leading to a downgrade in price expectations.

"Existing-home sales disappointed but are still above the 2009 pace; the current pace of just over 5 million annual sales suggests home prices will decline another 6% from here, and bottom in 2012," write fixed income strategists for JPMorgan in the latest Securtitized Products Weekly report.

"However, we are not shifting our view on home prices more negative unless existing home sales start to drift below 2009 levels," they add.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

Commercial mortgage-backed securities are gaining steam with $9 billion issued in the first four months of the year and $40 billion expected by the end of 2011, according to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL: 75.11 -0.27%).

Jones Lang LaSalle analysts point to rising rental rates in key markets and a capital markets recovery that has been largely driven by an improving economy as reasons for a spike in confidence within the commercial real estate segment. Other factors include higher corporate profits, improved expectations for more hiring and the understanding the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing will end in June but the federal funds rates will not rise, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Analysts said rents rose in 21 of the 44 markets surveyed from a year earlier, indicating commercial real estate is becoming more attractive to investors.

"The economic fundamentals influencing the return to a robust trading market in commercial real estate are improving quickly, and that is going to push the level of asset trades to a new post-recession high, up near 60% in 2011," said Jay Koster, president of Jones Lang LaSalle, Americas Capital Markets. "Given the improvements underway, we’re revising our 2011 global transaction volume forecast upward from an initial expectation of $380 billion to $440 billion this year."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts recently said with the sharp drop in inflation expectations, the firm believes CMBS subordinate bonds issued under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, are positioned to recover some or all of the price declines they've experienced in recent months.

"We reiterate our recommendation to buy CMBS AMs, viewing them as especially attractive at current levels," BofA Merrill Lynch analysts said in a report.

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

A proposal by Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) to create a regulatory framework for fostering a U.S. covered bond market holds bipartisan support, prompting ratings firm DBRS to suggest the plan could actually make it to the president's desk.

In March, Garrett and Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) introduced the United States Covered Bond Act of 2011, reviving past efforts to create a regulatory framework for what lawmakers see as a investment tool to help the economic recovery.

Like asset-backed securities, covered bonds are debt securities. The difference is issuers are on the hook against losses with covered bonds. Payment to investors is via swap agreements, which is meant to cover the scheduled payments should the issuer become insolvent or there is a discrepancy in timing, where the interest being paid on the loans doesn't line up with payments due to investors. A third party trustee is also appointed to represent covered bondholders. Adding the layers of additional recourse, as it compares to securitization, makes it pricier by comparison.

As it stands, the Covered Bond Act would allow U.S. covered bond market to pool traditional assets, including residential and commercial mortgages, into debt securities. But, unlike in the established multi-trillion dollar European arena, the U.S. version would also include auto loans, credit-card receivables, student loans and government-guaranteed small business loans.

"Congress is continuing to consider if other asset classes should be eligible with some supporters seeking to have equipment and aircraft leases added," DBRS said.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issues policy on the best practices in covered bonds, but a regulatory framework is seen as a necessary step toward earning the confidence of investors. On July 28, 2008 then Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson announced the publication of a Best Practices guide, as a complement to the FDIC, which was intended to promote issuance. At the time, several large banks indicated support. However, none have brought a covered bond platform to market.

While lawmakers see covered bonds as a one tool to restart the economy by wooing investors back to riskier assets, the Garrett and Maloney's bill remains controversial among analysts and community banks who believe such a market will favor big banks, chasing out smaller competition.

"The covered bond legislation now pending before the Garrett subcommittee in the House is all about Wall Street and does nothing to increase the availability of housing credit," said market analyst Christopher Whalen with Institutional Risk Analytics.

"The bill lacks basic protections for investors in bonds and for the FDIC, which would be fully exposed to losses from covered bonds under the Garrett proposal," he said. "Most banks today have more funding than can be employed. (Covered bonds) do not add any new, non-bank funding leverage to the system, which is the key objective if we are to avoid a catastrophe in housing."

Write to: Kerri Panchuk.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

California Attorney General Kamala Harris, saying that years of unscrupulous lending still haunts the state, is creating a 25-person task force to target mortgage fraud of any size — from small operations that preyed on troubled borrowers to corporations that sold risky loans as safe investments.

The team of 17 lawyers and eight special agents from the state Department of Justice will pursue three major areas, Harris said in an interview.

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

There's a new way to sell your home in Australia, and it banks on the fact that people buy homes with their hearts more so than their heads.

One new Australian real estate listing website gives owners the opportunity to list their home and garnish it with personality. An emotional attachment, the site attests, will draw in buyers more quickly and convince them to buy based on different aspects than just the number of bedrooms and bathrooms.

"Most real estate websites run 'agent only listings' or 'owner only listings.' Nothing bridges the gap between the two — until now," commented Steve Basin, chief executive officer of iPostcodes. "Outside of marriage, buying a home is the most emotional decision a person can make, not only is it a huge financial investment but also they're staking the future of their family."

Through iPostcodes.com.au, an owner can list the reasons outside the property that make the home so special — a Yelp for homeownership if you will. One example given is "great views of the sunset."

So for example, I could list my new house as biking distance from Granada Theater, one of the most historic and popular music venues in Dallas. It would have also been great to know upon moving in that my place is in a predominantly homeowner area, and the neighbors are slightly uptight about loud noise coming from renters.

This is a great idea in theory. The service is, if fact, free to homeowners looking to list their properties as well as to prospective homebuyers searching local listings. However, iPostcodes is essentially useless as of this moment — there just isn't much of anything on there.

There is just one residential listing on the site — in a Melbourne suburb, but there are no pictures, and the owner certainly hasn't utilized the emotionally engaging feature to try and sell it.

Perhaps the iPostcode announcement was less of a press release and more of a call to action. Add personality to property and start another Web-based revolution.

So if it's attitude you want, then attitude you'll get: iPostcode, don't put the cart before the horse.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.



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