As earnings season presses on, Barclays Capital is expecting pronounced bifurcation in the real estate investment trust market subsectors. The conclusion is reached with respect to overall performance.
In a report released Tuesday, Barclays said it expects apartment and industrial REIT performance to improve during the first quarter. Effective rental rates are up about 5%, according to Barclays, which should drive positive leasing trends.
"With a few notable exceptions (namely Apartment Investment and Management Co.(AIV: 24.44 -1.25%)), most REITs have begun to let high occupancy levels burn off in order to push rents higher," Barclays said.
The firm believes it will take substantial growth in the multifamily sector to achieve current valuations set at a 14.2% premium; however, Barclays recommends looking for pockets of opportunity in this sector.
As far as the industrial sector is concerned, Barclays expects market rents to bottom in mid-2011. In fact, the company said, rents are up in some markets.
Office and retail REITs, on the other hand, will continue to lag, Barclays said. Leasing volumes in office REITs under the research firm's supervision have recently shown strength and pricing power is expected to bounce back in gateway cities such as San Francisco or New York, which is giving REITs in those cities an edge up.
"We also like companies with strong balance sheets and platforms, with the ability to pursue external growth opportunities (including those with some lease-up risk)," Barclays' report said. Analysts said they feel "especially confident" in office REIT Boston Properties Inc. (BXP: 103.82 +0.14%) activity in the coming months.
By and large, the transaction activity sector remains scarce for regional mall assets, according to Barclays. The firm also mentioned that shopping center net absorption will be hindered as national retailer demand is offset by key bankruptcies, including Borders and Blockbuster.
Barclays expects a 13.5% growth rate for apartment REITs in the first quarter and a 15.1% growth rate for fiscal 2011 over 2010. The industrial sector is expected to grow 4.2% for the fiscal year.
Office REITs will experience 2.1% growth in the first quarter of 2011 and 3% growth on an annual basis. Shopping center growth will fall 3.3% during the first quarter, according to Barclays, while regional mall REITs will grow 18.9%. For fiscal 2011, these sectors are anticipated to grow 12.7% and 32.6%, respectively, Barclays said.
Write to Christine Ricciardi.
Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.
Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investments.
So far, this earnings season is a welcome event on Wall Street because of some much needed market stability.
Many companies are reporting an improving corporate environment despite the sluggish growth in the broader economic recovery. Corporate America is working in a different kind of economy. And State Street Corp. (STT: 38.84 +0.15%) is a perfect example.
The institutional investment advisory firm is reporting it costs more to do business. Basel 3 requirements, the implementation of Dodd-Frank and continual expenses to credit ratings agencies to have their investments rated are dragging down the bottom line, according to State Street.
(Editor's note: The firm seems especially irked at the last example. Considering the markets must rely on ratings agencies, State Street isn't happy with the necessary evil. The company lists costs to the agencies as a future loss risk due to the "maintenance of credit agency ratings for our debt and depository obligations as well as the level of credibility of credit agency ratings.")
It cost more to do business, so State Street is charging more.
For example, investment management fees, generated by State Street Global Advisors, rose 12% in the first quarter to $236 million from $211 million in the first quarter of 2010.
This is interesting considering securities finance revenue fell 8% in the quarter to $66 million from $72 million a year earlier due primarily to lower volumes, offset partially by improved spreads.
So business is slow, and it costs more, but State Street found a simple way to earn a profit.
Future homebuyers should take note of the development of such pass-through economies.
Incoming consumer protections, mortgage servicer fees, consent orders, etc., all mean the cost of business is going up. And when it comes to homebuying, the borrower unfortunately is still the bottom line.
For if the consumer wants consumer protection, then the consumer has to pay for it.
I just hope it's worth it.
Write to Jacob Gaffney.
Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.
Tags: State Street Corp.
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