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Archive for January, 2011

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Lance Cassell is the managing director of the Consumer Mortgage Bureau, an organization that provides consumers tools and education to make informed homebuying decisions. For this edition of In This Corner, Cassell sits down with HousingWire to talk about a new originator designation program through the CMB that creates an online network of credited originators for consumers to choose from. Originators must apply and be accepted to the program, where they can create an online profile, post pictures and a resume.

HousingWire: What motivated the Consumer Mortgage Bureau to develop this kind of "originator standard," if you will? Where did this idea to classify mortgage originators come from?

Lance Cassell: We feel strongly that the borrowers should know more about their mortgage than the loan officer. Consumers need to make sure they know their loan officer and know the type of loan they're getting. With the launch of the National Mortgage Licensing System, put in effect by the SAFE Act in 2008, there are two distinct types of loan officers — licensed officers and ones that simply need to be registered. We created the designation program to not only explain what those differences are, but to allow loan officers the opportunity to take it a step further — create a profile page, put a picture or their logo up there, tout some of the training they've done. It also allows them to put their specialization up there.

HW: Since this designation can be applied nationally, how do you feel this will change mortgage origination in the future?

LC: With the advent of SAFE Act, a minimal standard was put across nationwide. There's a minimum number of hours of continuing and pre-licensing education. There's also national test originators have to take and a state test for every state they want to do business in. We believe the mortgage industry is coming out of a darker time. We're trying to elevate the industry and enrich the mortgage process, by bringing more accountability to it and more transparency to it. In the end, I think you'll see potential homeowners getting the mortgage they should be getting. Frankly if they don't qualify for a mortgage, they'll know why and be able to go back, fix whatever they need to fix, and come back and get that mortgage.

HW: Sounds like everybody's trying to create this standard for the industry players, and what your organization is trying to do is focus on the consumer and build a smarter consumer. Is that a valid conclusion?

LC: Absolutely. In the mortgage industry, it's alphabet soup. We have a glossary of terms on our website for consumers and ultimately we feel they need to be educated. There's no doubt it takes two to tango. When the borrowers put their name on and sign that loan agreement, that's the biggest investment they're going to make in their life. It's a 30-year mortgage and they have to know what they're signing. Of course, there were professionals out there that took advantage of programs, but the mortgage industry is made up of problem solvers. Over the last five to 10 years, they've figured out how to solve a lot of problems, and this just another one we're all trying to solve together.

HW: With this new designation program, what can borrowers and consumers expect from an originator with a title (registered mortgage professor and licensed mortgage professional) as opposed to one without? What will be the difference?

LC: I think the biggest difference is transparency. I know for a fact many of the consumers I talk to don't know the difference between a loan officer at a bank around the corner versus a mortgage broker, versus a mortgage originator in another state. We're really trying to be transparent as much as possible in the process, and I think federal legislation that is coming down has helped. There are all kinds of programs and money available for first-time homebuyers and for people who have gotten in over their head. This designation will show consumers that the mortgage originator cares. They care enough to differentiate themselves from other loan originators out there.

HW: Your company is taking full responsibility in designating these originators and saying, "These guys know how to do it right." What if they mess up? How do you account for ethical lapses in this designation program?

LC: The ethical piece comes into play because that is a gray area and it has been. Originators have taken a lot of heat in the media for different things over the last couple years. We take that into account and if somebody has negative feedback put on their profile, we get both sides of the story and if we need to remove them, we remove them.

Have someone perfect for In This Corner? E-mail the editor.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Software provider Lewtan redesigned its asset-backed securities surveillance site, ABSNet, to provide a clearer picture of the underlying collateral in trades made by investors.

Lewtan created ABSNet as a source of data, analytics, software and content for the secondary market. It overhauled the system though to provide new features, which were created from lessons learned during the financial crisis, the company said.

ABSNet now provides end-of-day bond pricing and a new search tool, Bond Screener, that allows users to identify pricing and credit risk dislocations in the market. To get this, it compares original and current data on bond performance, ratings and prices. Users can also customize alerts to track "trigger data" for residential mortgage-backed securities.

"With the new and redesigned ABSNet website, Lewtan continues to expand the depth of structured finance information that market professionals demand in order to manage and monitor their global portfolio," Lewtan CEO Ira Keller said. "Lewtan is committed to supporting market transparency, by providing the global securitization industry with the most comprehensive, up-to-date surveillance data and analytical tools."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

This year is positioned to be a stronger year for commercial mortgage-backed securities, as industry analysts say the sector hit bottom in 2010. Although, the market still remains far short of its highest point.

Moody's Investors Service expects CMBS issuance will grow to $37 billion in 2011, with an estimated $13 billion in the first quarter alone. Four years ago, CMBS issuance reached $230 billion. The firm also said CMBS portfolios will be larger and more diversified than previous years.

"With 2008 and 2009 posting dramatic drops in issuance from the peak of the market in 2007, 2010 marked a resurrection of sorts for CMBS," Moody's wrote in a recent report. "Based on what is already in the (first quarter) pipeline, Moody's anticipates these trends will continue and accelerate."

The hotel and multifamily sectors will continue to recover throughout the year, according to Moody's. Because pricing is so volatile in these sectors, they are usually the first to feel the effects of an economic downturn, but also the first to rebound. Other sectors will lag a bit with regard to recovery, but all outlooks remain positive.

"Office, retail and industrial market fundamentals will start to form a bottom in 2011, with a strong rebound not expected until 2012," Moody's said.

CMBS delinquencies increased 2% in December, capping off the year at $62.32 billion worth of delinquent loans, according to Realpoint, a credit rating agency. This figure is up 50% from 2009 when CMBS delinquencies totaled $41.6 billion.

Although delinquencies increased across all sectors, the firm said new issuance in 2011 will offset delinquency growth.

"As liquidations of severely distressed defaulted loans picked up speed in the latter half of 2009 into 2010, and modifications or forbearance at the loan level continue to be discussed between borrowers and special servicers, there may be a delinquency 'leveling-off' period through year-end 2010 or early 2011," Realpoint said.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Peter Wallison, one of four dissenting members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, railed against the report on the cause of the financial crisis, and named the government's housing policy as the culprit behind the meltdown.

Wallison, the Arthur F. Burns Fellow in financial policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, released his 93-page rebuttal ahead of the FCIC report Thursday. In it, he said the commission merely pursued facts that fit its initial assumptions about "lax regulation, greed and recklessness on Wall Street."

The commission found that the crisis was avoidable had regulators and financial institutions not ignored dramatic increases in household mortgage debt, a viral growth in financial firms' trading activities, unregulated derivatives and many other red flags.

But Wallison said the cause came a decade before.

"I believe that the sine qua non of the financial crisis was U.S. government housing policy, which led to the creation of 27 million subprime and other risky loans — half of all mortgages in the United States — which were ready to default as soon as the massive 1997–2007 housing bubble began to deflate," Wallison wrote.

Had the U.S. not pursued this policy, he added, "the great financial crisis of 2008 would never have occurred."

While the FCIC concluded that the government-sponsored enterprises followed Wall Street into the subprime quagmire, Wallison blamed policy developed by Congress in 1992 by the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations that sought to increase homeownership in the U.S.

Government entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration and insured banks were "compelled" to compete for more mortgage borrowers, causing underwriting standards to decline and swelled a housing bubble for a decade before bursting in 2007.

Wallison even questioned why the report was commissioned in the first place if Congress passed and President Obama signed the financial overhaul that was the Dodd-Frank Act six months before the report was completed.

"In the end, the majority’s report turned out to be a just-so story about the financial crisis, rather than a report on what caused the financial crisis," Wallison wrote.

Wallison is not the only disagreeing voice in the room. Three other members of the FCIC board also published a joint dissent claiming that financial shock and panicking markets are largely to blame.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Residential mortgage refinances are expected to deteriorate over the next two years due to factors not limited to rising interest rates. Some are predicting that mortgage refinancings, in fact, will fall by 77% by 2012 and drag down the overall market for originations.

Total refinances hit about $1 trillion in 2010 and accounted for 69% of the market share for originations, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The trade association is predicting that will drop more than two-thirds to just $352 billion and comprise of 36% market share in 2011.

MBA anticipates only $236 billion worth of refinances to take place in 2012.

Mortgage purchases will not make up for the losses in the refinance sector, according to the firm's numbers. Purchase originations are expected to increase to $614 billion from $473 billion in 2011 (up 30%), bringing the total originations for the year to $966 billion.

In 2010, origination transactions summed $1.5 trillion, which means a nearly 36% drop in overall residential lending activity.

MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said rising mortgage rates will filter the market for refinances, and that repurchase requests from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and mortgage insurers will also impact the market.

"This will continue to hold down originations," he said.

The MBA forecasts new home sales will rise and existing home sales will fall, up to 351,000 and down to 4.8 million, respectively.

Financial services firm KBW reported a 17.5% increase in new home sales from November to December, putting the 2010 year-end total at 329,000. December new home sales, which totaled about 22,000, were down 7.6% compared to a year earlier.

KBW said the average monthly sale volume for 2010 was between 20,000 and 26,000.

"Assuming the absolute level of monthly sales remains near current levels in the near term, the annualized new home sales numbers should continue to improve on seasonal factors in coming months," the firm said.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

The National Association of Mortgage Brokers sent a letter to the Federal Reserve asking for a 12-month delay in enforcing changes to Regulation Z and for further clarification to loan originator compensation.

Regulation Z, which was amended by the Dodd-Frank Act, is the authority given to the Fed to implement the Truth in Lending Act. The regulation requires lenders to disclose terms and cost of credit to consumers, and gives borrowers the right to cancel certain credit transactions that involve a lien on a principal dwelling. A slew of other rules under the law would impose limits on home-equity plans and mortgages that are subject to special requirements, requires appraisal management companies to disclose costs and others.

The Fed published its final rule on loan originator compensation in September, which prohibits basing compensation to a loan originator on a loan’s terms or conditions, subject to a limited exception for loan amount. It also prohibits compensation to a loan originator from both the consumer and a party other than the consumer for the same transaction, and blocks originators from steering a consumer to receive greater compensation.

Lenders are required to comply by April 11.

But the NAMB, and the Mortgage Bankers Association before them, asked the Fed for more clarification before companies are required to go through the extra cost of compliance.

"NAMB’s representatives stated that the primary request was to have the rule delayed due to (the) fact that there was no compliance guide written by the Federal Reserve Board for the changes to Regulation Z," the trade group said in a statement released Thursday.

According to the group, the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act requires a compliance guide. They added that without one the industry is working in the dark.

"It is NAMB’s argument that mortgage brokers and lenders are ill-equipped with how to fully comply with the rule, and therefore, have no idea how to project for income," NAMB said. "Without guidance from the Federal Reserve, investors also have not been able to put together pricing models and have yet to conduct consumer testing. The Federal Reserve has also not been able to forecast the impact that the enforcement of loan originator compensation would have on small business."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

One dissenting opinion to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission blames the "shock and panic" in the markets in September 2008 for expediting the quick collapse of the global economy.

The FCIC report largely credits the regulatory shortcomings of the U.S. government and extreme risk taking of the nation's largest financial institutions for the current economic turmoil.

Another opinion, however, says the scope is much, much larger than that.

The FCIC report on the causes of the Great Recession is itself barely a majority opinion. It represents the findings of six of 10 board members. Three of the remaining four issued a dissent Wednesday ahead of the FCIC official release. The remaining dissent, from Peter Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute, will be covered on HousingWire later today.

The three dissenters, Vice Chairman Bill Thomas, Keith Hennesey and Doug Holtz-Eakin, list 10 reasons for the current financial hardships.

Among their reasons, perhaps the single largest contributor came September 2008 when the "failures, near-failures, and restructurings of 10 firms triggered a global financial panic," they write.

"Confidence and trust in the financial system began to evaporate as the health of almost every large and mid-size financial institution in the United States and Europe was questioned," according to the dissenting opinion they wrote.

The shock then triggered a severe contraction in street-side economies, the harm of which continues today.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Two years removed from the collapse of the financial crisis in 2008, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission released its final 533-page report to Congress Thursday concluding that Wall Street and Washington were to blame for ignoring early problems in mortgage-lending practices that sparked the meltdown.

The commission interviewed more than 700 witnesses and spent 19 days in public hearings in New York and Washington and in communities hardest hit by the crisis.

"Despite the expressed view of many on Wall Street and in Washington that the crisis could not have been foreseen or avoided, there were warning signs," the commission wrote in the report. "The tragedy was that they were ignored or discounted."

It was no surprise that risky subprime lending and securitization sparked an unsustainable rise in housing prices. There were widespread reports of predatory lending practices, dramatic increases in household mortgage debt, and a viral growth in financial institutions' trading activities, unregulated derivatives and many other red flags.

But the commission concluded that "little meaningful action was taken to quell the threats in a timely manner."

The prime example that the commission laid out was the Federal Reserve's "pivotal failure" to set prudent mortgage-lending standards and stem the flow of toxic loans.

"The Federal Reserve was the one entity empowered to do so and it did not," the commission wrote.

There were other failures. Financial firms originated, sold and bought mortgage-backed securities that were never examined by their analysts or hired credit rating agencies they leaned on to do so. In some cases, these firms even knew the MBS to be "defective."

The report is replete with analogies, referring to regulators as "sentries" who "were not at their posts," a financial system as a "highway where there were neither speed limits nor neatly painted lines," credit rating agencies as "essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction" and poorly written loans that "lit and spread the flame of contagion and crisis."

Of the 10 commission members, six Democrats endorsed the final report with three Republicans issuing a joint dissent, and another, Peter Wallison who submitted his own found here.

Wallison is the fellow in financial policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. In his dissent, he placed much of the blame on the housing policies of past administrations that promoted affordable housing. He also differed on the systemic risk of subprime loans.

"These were not matches that lit a dry and tinder forest. These were a gasoline truck that exploded in the forest, and no forest could survive that," Wallison told reporters in a briefing.

As far as the role of the government-sponsored enterprises in the meltdown, the commission found that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac contributed to the problems, but were not the primary cause. Their business models were flawed, the commission wrote, but ultimately these companies followed Wall Street into the subprime market rather than led.

A white paper from the Treasury Department on the future of Fannie and Freddie is expected to be released in the middle of February.

Phil Angelides, chairman of the commission, issued a warning to those who see the crisis as a flash moment or "an act of Mother Nature."

"Despite the expressed view of many on Wall Street and in Washington that the crisis could not have been foreseen or avoided, there were warning signs. The greatest tragedy would be to accept the refrain that no one could have seen this coming and thus nothing could have been done," Angelides said. "If we accept this notion, it will happen again."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Pending home sales rose 2% in December from the prior month for the fifth gain in six months but remain below the year-ago period, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Despite the modest gains in sales, at least one research firm predicts the housing market has a long road to recovery that will take as long as six years.

NAR said its pending home sales index, which is based on contracts signed, increased to 93.7 last month up from a downwardly revised 91.9 for November and down from 97.8 for December 2009.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said good affordability conditions and economic improvement led to the monthly increase.

"Modest gains in the labor market and the improving economy are creating a more favorable backdrop for buyers, allowing them to take advantage of excellent housing affordability conditions," Yun said. "Mortgage rates should rise only modestly in the months ahead, so we’ll continue to see a favorable environment for buyers with good credit."

Not everyone shares Yun's view.

TrimTabs Investment Research said Thursday that its analysts are forecasting the U.S. housing market won't recover for five to six years. And the housing "depression" will continue to be a drag on the economy, despite the gains seen in domestic stock markets of late.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed steadily since July and passed 12,000 Wednesday before closing at 11,985.44.

Madeline Schnapp, director of economic research at TrimTabs, said the firm estimates upward of 20% of GDP growth and 40% of employment growth between 2002 and 2007 was in some way related to housing. But the sector has collapsed in on itself and "will serve as a drag for years to come."

"Sloppy paperwork and government policies that allow banks to postpone losses are only delaying the necessary adjustment in the housing market," Schnapp said. "The sooner house prices are allowed to find a market-clearing level on their own, the sooner the housing sector can contribute to economic growth."

TrimTabs said nearly 11 million homeowners owe more than the house is worth, and some 7 million mortgages are delinquent with 250,000 new notices of default every quarter.

"Loan-to-value ratios need to come down significantly, especially in states like Florida and Nevada," according to Schnapp. "Meanwhile, a painfully  slow foreclosure process and house prices that are still too high are making it virtually impossible for the market to normalize."

NAR said its pending home sales index was mixed in different parts of the country with increases in three regions and a decline in the West. The group said the index rose 1.8% in the Northeast in December, with a 8% gain in the Midwest and a 11.5% rise in the South. Meanwhile the index fell 13.2% in the West.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Both short-term and long-term mortgage rates rose for the week ending Jan. 27, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage increased six basis points to 4.8%, although the rate remains lower than a year ago when it was 4.98%.

Rates on 15-year FRMs rose to 4.09% from 4.05% the prior week. The average origination point for this type of loan is currently 0.8. The rate for a 15-year FRM was 4.39% one year ago.

According to Freddie Mac, five-year, Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages rose slightly to 3.7% from 3.69% one week ago, while 1-year, Treasury-indexed ARMs increased one basis point to 3.26%. During the same week in 2010, the rates for these ARMs were 4.25% and 4.29%, respectively.

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft commented that rates followed bond yields during the week amid reports from the conference board that suggest the economy is strengthening.

"The index of leading indicators rose 1% in December, nearly twice that of the market consensus forecast and represented the sixth consecutive monthly increase," Nothaft said. "They also reported a stronger gain in consumer confidence for January, rising to an eight-month high."

The Bankrate survey of large thrifts showed mixed results. The rate for a 30-year FRM increased two basis points to 4.97%, the rate for a 15-year FRMs decreased slightly to 4.28% and the rate for a 5-year ARM fell to 3.84%.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.



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