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Archive for January, 2011

Friday, January 28th, 2011

Led by increased consumer spending and stronger net exports, fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth rose from the prior three months, although a little slower than many expected but possibly at a rate that indicates the economic recovery is picking up speed.

The Commerce Department said GDP growth rose an inflation-adjusted 3.2% in the final three months of 2010, up from 2.6% growth for the third quarter. Analysts surveyed by Econoday projected fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.5% with a range of estimates between 2.9% and 5.4%. Economists polled by MarketWatch were also expecting GDP growth of 3.5% for the quarter.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said a 4.4% increase in nonresidential fixed investment also helped fuel growth in the fourth quarter. Exports rose 8.5% and imports declined 13.5% during the quarter narrowing the net export gap to $392.2 billion from $505 billion in the third quarter.

The economy expanded by 2.9% for all of 2010, marking the largest yearly gain in five years.

The accelerated rate in the fourth quarter "confirms that the economic recovery regained some lost momentum over the closing stages of last year," according to Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist with Capital Economics. He said the 4.4% increase in consumption was the biggest quarterly gain in almost five years. Although households used savings to fund the spending spree, with the personal saving rate dropping to 5.4% in the fourth quarter from 5.9% in the third, Ashworth said.

"With the new payroll tax reduction kicking in on Jan. 1, we expect first-quarter GDP growth to be equally as strong, driven again by a good showing from consumption," he said. "Nevertheless, we also anticipate a slowdown in GDP growth later in 2011, as the stimulus begins to fade."

The Commerce Department plans to report its second estimate on fourth-quarter GDP growth, based on more complete data, Feb. 25.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Friday, January 28th, 2011

CastleOak Securities named Donna Sims Wilson executive vice president, tasking her with driving revenue growth and overseeing new business production.

Sims Wilson has an extensive background in equity sales and corporate and mortgage finance. As a 25-year year veteran of the industry, she most recently served as president of M.R. Beal & Co., a minority-owned investment bank that specializes in municipal and corporate finance. During her tenure with M.R. Beal & Co., Sims Wilson was responsible for growing the firm's revenue base.

Before she was president, Sims Wilson also served as executive vice president, head of equity sales and trading, senior vice president, and director of the Federal Financial Group at M.R. Beal. She also spent a stint at Bear Stearns where she was vice president.

President and Chief Executive Officer of CastleOak David Jones commented that Sims Wilson would be a great asset to the company because of extensive background in the securities market.

"Donna's breadth of relationships in the industry and range of expertise across various business lines are excellent complements to our business," Jones said. "As we continue to focus on growth strategies, Donna's deep industry knowledge and leadership will prove to be exceptional assets to CastleOak."

CastleOak Securities is an investment bank that provides sales and trading, capital markets and financial advisory services. The firm is based in New York, but has regional offices in Chicago, Atlanta, and Portland.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Friday, January 28th, 2011

Joe Smith declined to be renominated by the Obama administration as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency after meeting staunch Republican opposition, a White House official said.

Smith, currently the North Carolina banking commissioner, originally accepted the nomination late in 2010, and was approved by the Senate Banking Committee in December. Had he gone forward with the nomination process through Congress and become the director of the FHFA, he would have replaced Acting Director Edward DeMarco as the de facto regulator of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal Friday and confirmed to HousingWire by a White House official.

"Joe Smith is a candidate whose background and expertise makes him highly qualified to lead the FHFA," the White House said in a statement. "Unfortunately, there is not a clear path to confirmation for his nomination at this point in time, and Mr. Smith has asked not to be renominated in the 112th Congress."

But it seems the clock ran out. Although Smith did clear committee, many Republicans voiced concern about his qualifications. With Republicans taking over the House in January, Smith declined to go forward. He has since been renominated as the North Carolina Commissioner of Banks by Gov. Bev Perdue, according to a statement put out Friday.

One of Smith's harshest critics was Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), then the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee.

"The first confirmed director must hit the ground running — equipped with the skills and experience needed to be a strong regulator free from influence by the current administration," Shelby said in a released statement after the committee's vote in December. "In other words, we need a watchdog not a lapdog."

Jim Vogel of FTN Financial said Smith's decline and the Treasury Department's delay on the future of housing finance white paper to February is further proof that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform is not on the legislative calendar for this year or even 2012. He added that the news may possibly explain the "odd run-up" in Fannie and Freddie shares on the Pink Sheets, the destination for stocks worth less than $1.

"Despite the headline flames fanned on Freddie and Fannie in recent weeks, it will take a major course change in housing (or the MBS market) to create the impetus for a new system of single-family finance," Vogel said.

But Arnold Kling, a former economist with Freddie Mac and a scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University said small reforms can be made, and Congress can start by reducing the maximum loan amounts eligible for purchase by the housing agencies.

"Although this limit is scheduled to drop in high-cost areas later this year, there should be an across-the-board reduction of 20 percent in the loan limits for Freddie, Fannie, and FHA," Kling said. "This is needed in order to create room for private lenders to enter the mortgage market while Congress debates the process of how to reform the system as a whole. As it stands now, the loan limits are currently set so high that essentially the entire mortgage market has been set aside for the agencies."

Kling admitted reform for Fannie and Freddie will test the ideologies of a split Congress and will take time.

"Housing policy is a difficult issue, and no plan will be void of controversy. Because finding consensus on a large-scale reform will take time, policymakers should implement these steps now to protect the private mortgage market from extinction," Kling said.

For more on the possible outcomes of Fannie and Freddie see the February issue of HousingWire.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Friday, January 28th, 2011

While many economists are forecasting continued recovery in 2011, one official at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York expects the foreclosure process to remain a drag on the overall economy.

Joseph Tracy, executive vice president at the NY Fed, said the housing market continues to pose a significant downside risk to the recovery. He said housing prices are still down in many markets, and considerable excess supply, pushed higher by increased foreclosure levels and time lines, will continue to "exert downward pressure on house prices and new construction."

As the pace of foreclosure starts exceeds completed foreclosures each quarter, Tracy estimates "we are only halfway through the resolution process."

He said the Great Recession was marked by its severity rather than length. A decline in real output of $1.1 trillion, or 8%, pushed the level of economic growth back to levels of 2006.

He said consumption normally slows but remains positive during a recession. But that wasn't the case over the past few years, as demand for durable goods fell and companies cut jobs to realign staff to the lower level of demand. This led to the loss of 7.3 million nonfarm payroll jobs, putting employment at levels last seen in 2000.

"The severity of the Great Recession is very apparent when you realize that an entire decade's worth of job growth was lost," Tracy said.

There are about 15 million unemployed workers, 9 million working part time for economic reasons, and some 1.3 million discouraged workers who want a job but aren't actively looking for work and therefore not counted as unemployed, he said. Earlier in January, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he expects U.S. unemployment to remain elevated and be near 8% in 2013.

As the economy deteriorated and loan losses mounted, banks tightened their lending standards and credit spreads increased. Tracy said the aggressive monetary and fiscal policy actions undertaken by the Federal Open Market Committee kept the recession from becoming the second Great Depression.

Despite the fear of a double-dip recession midway through 2010, economists started increasing their forecasts for economic growth in 2011, as strong data from leading indicators as last year ended showed "the economy was in fact regaining its lost momentum."

On Friday, the Commerce Department said GDP growth rose an inflation-adjusted 3.2% in the fourth quarter, possibly indicating the recovery may be beginning to pick up.

The acceleration from was up from 2.6% growth in the third quarter, and "confirms that the economic recovery regained some lost momentum over the closing stages of last year," according to Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist with Capital Economics. He said growth was driven by a 4.4% increase in consumption, the biggest quarterly gain in almost five years.

"With the new payroll tax reduction kicking in on Jan. 1, we expect first-quarter GDP growth to be equally as strong, driven again by a good showing from consumption," Ashworth said. "Nevertheless, we also anticipate a slowdown in GDP growth later in 2011, as the stimulus begins to fade."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Friday, January 28th, 2011

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s portfolio of subprime loans “performed significantly better” than those packaged into mortgage-backed securities by private issuers, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission found in a report.

The panel’s report, scheduled to be published tomorrow, attempts to refute claims by Republican lawmakers and some economists that the two government-sponsored enterprises were a driving force behind the growth in subprime home lending that led to the 2008 financial crisis.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

Housing finance should be reformed by creating chartered mortgage institutions that would provide investors in mortgage-backed securities a payment guarantee on principal and interest, says a new white paper on mortgage reform.

The CMIs, regulated by a federal agency, would be private institutions neither owned nor controlled by originators. They would keep a middle market functioning, the paper said.

The new proposal for reforming the housing finance market comes from the “Mortgage Working Group”  — 19 university scholars and housing advocates convened by the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress. The center posted the proposal to its website on Thursday.

Revamping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been the focus of much debate lately, with different groups suggesting various methods to reform the government-sponsored enterprises, which were put into conservatorship during the financial crisis. The Treasury is expected to reveal its proposal in February.

In a recent interview with HousingWire that will appear in the February magazine, Janneke Ratcliffe, a member of the Mortgage Working Group, said securities would be backed by a catastrophic risk insurance fund, run by the government but funded by premiums on CMI-guaranteed MBS. The fund would provide an explicit guarantee of CMI’s obligations.

“The CMIs would simply be doing the default risk protection function that the GSEs do now,” Ratcliffe said.

The Mortgage Working Group believes there is room for the Federal Housing Administration to provide affordable housing and a pure-private market for affluent borrowers where government guarantees aren’t needed. But for the middle market, a catastrophic guarantee is needed for investor involvement in the housing market, Ratcliffe said.

“Without that catastrophic guarantee, you can look now and see that if there isn’t a government guarantee, there isn’t much activity,” said Ratcliffe, who is also associate director of the Center for Community Capital at the University of North Carolina.

Said the paper: “In short, we need a new system that is capitalized with as much private capital as possible while still serving the nation’s housing needs. Any government guarantee must be explicit and paid for; we must avoid a repetition of the uncompensated implicit government guarantee that backed Fannie and Freddie before they collapsed into government conservatorship.”

To protect taxpayers and ensure that all requirements for the guarantee are met, the federal government also would regulate the CMIs for capital adequacy and compliance with consumer protection and other responsibilities. The government would serve as conservator or receiver for CMIs that fail, with responsibilities that include ensuring that the servicing of the remaining guaranteed securities is carried out by a qualified entity.

Providing a government guarantee against catastrophic risk is expected to raise mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage by around 0.5 percentage points, the paper said.

The group also proposes the creation of a market access fund, financed by a small fee on all mortgage-backed securities. The fund would, on a competitive and shared-risk basis, provide credit enhancement and research-and-development funds to promising but untested mortgage finance products that could better serve underserved markets, according to the white paper.

Market access fund credit enhancements, unlike Federal Housing Administration guarantees, would back only a portion of the risk of a loss and would be available only for a limited period.

"The fee on all mortgage-backed securities would also fund the National Housing Trust Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund, two funds that provide finance to states and community development financial institutions primarily to support affordable rental housing, and which were to have been funded by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before they fell into conservatorship," the paper said.

Incremental shifts in GSE status, not wholesale changes, are most likely this year, Ratcliffe told HousingWire.

“It’s unrealistic that we will rip the Band-aid off and have a whole new secondary market structure put in place in 2011,” she said. “That would be irresponsible and dangerous.”

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

What can be done with Frannie? We love her and we need her. But we have to get along without her, or at least learn to live without relying on her so much.

Frannie is an amalgam of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored enterprises that became government-run operations after the financial crisis left them insolvent.

The two mortgage giants were managed differently, but the distinctions did not turn out to be very important. So I’ll combine their names and call them Frannie.

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

A Nevada county court placed an injunction against a foreclosure by Bank of America (BAC: 7.255 -0.62%) and its default management subsidiary ReconTrust on Jan. 20.

Robert Lane, a judge in the Nye County District Court, delivered the ruling, citing the "substantial likelihood" that plaintiff and homeowner, Suzzane North, would establish at trial that ReconTrust could not prove it has a contractual relationship between the plaintiff and BofA regarding the promissory note and deed of trust.

Lane ruled "to prevent the irreparable injury to the Plaintiff that would result from the unlawful nonjudicial foreclosure being carried out by Defendant ReconTrust Company against the Plaintiff, and to allow the court to render effective relief if the Plaintiff prevails at trial."

A clerk at the court told HousingWire that the case has been taken to federal court, which BofA confirmed.

Similar lawsuits against BofA and ReconTrust sprang up in Utah in the summer of 2010, but U.S. District Court Judge Clark Waddoups dissolved an injunction against the bank on June 11.

"It is Bank of America and its related affiliates' policy to handle foreclosures in compliance with applicable laws, and we believe that the court will recognize that fact," a spokesperson for BofA told HousingWire. "Bank of America will work quickly to resolve the situation. Until then, ReconTrust intends to comply with the order."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

One of the many villains in the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report out Thursday is Goldman Sachs (GS: 109.72 +1.07%), the Wall Street giant that, according to page 235 of the report, recognized the delusion in the subprime mortgage market and decided to short it before the crash in 2008.

Goldman came under fire following the crisis by allegedly selling clients on mortgage-backed securities and other various financial instruments it was allegedly betting against on the side. Bond insurer ACA Financial Guaranty filed suit in January seeking $30 million in compensation and $90 million in punitive damages from how Goldman marketed the synthetic collateralized debt obligation named ABACUS.

In 2010, Basis Yield Alpha Fund, a hedge fund and Goldman client, sued the firm alleging it was frauded out of $11.25 million in investments in the Timberwolf CDO.

Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein told an FCIC hearing on Jan. 13, 2010 that the bank regretted selling clients MBS that it believed would default while shorting them simultaneously. But the bank reversed course and issued a press release the day after the testimony, clarifying that Blankfein was "responding to a lengthy series of statements followed by a question that was predicated on the assumption that a firm was selling a product that it thought was going to default…Mr. Blankfein does not believe, nor did he say, that Goldman Sachs had behaved improperly in any way."

But the FCIC report shows that in December 2006, Goldman executives "decided to reduce the firm's subprime exposure" after an initial decline in its asset-backed securities indices and 10 consecutive days of trading losses.

Analysts at the firm submitted a report on "the major risk in the Mortgage business" to Chief Financial Officer David Viniar and Chief Risk Officer Craig Broderick on Dec. 13, 2006, the commission reports. The next day, executives began reducing their mortgage exposure.

What follows is a narrative of Goldman employees moving the subprime risk, and when customers began to dwindle, the FCIC cites documents indicating that the firm "targeted less-sophisticated customers in its efforts to reduce subprime exposure" rather than hedge funds that were on the same side of the trade as Goldman. From December 2006 to August 2007, Goldman sold roughly $25.4 billion of CDOs, including $17.6 billion in synthetic CDOs, according to the FCIC.

Goldman did not have a comment on the FCIC's report, and neither did ACA Financial Guaranty. A spokesperson for Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), who chairs the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said that while Levin had no comment on this report, the subcommittee would have one of its own soon.

The FCIC falls short of declaring a verdict on Goldman. It noted that the firm's President and Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn testified that the bank lost $1.2 billion in its residential mortgage-related business during the two years of the financial crisis as proof that it did not bet against its clients, but it did point out that Goldman began buying more exposure after the initial short to strike a balance on the company's "Value at Risk" measure.

The VaR tracked potential losses at Goldman if the market moved unexpectedly in any direction. By February 2008, the VaR was at all-time high, driven by the firm's one-sided bet against subprime, and the bank began buying again to even out that imbalance, the FCIC reports.

While dissent for the FCIC report point to public panic, lax regulations and overreaching U.S. housing policy, the Goldman saga found within the commission's conclusions at the very least shows a firm frantically trying to exit a series of financial instruments it didn't fully understand.

The FCIC shows the now infamous architect of these plans, Fabrice Tourre, then a vice president on the structured product correlation trading desk taking in the chaos.

The FCIC reports that in an email sent from Tourre to Tom Montag, the co-head of global securities at Goldman on Jan. 31, 2007, he said there was "more and more leverage in the system," and referring to himself in the third person was "standing in middle of all these complex, highly levered, exotic trades he created without necessarily understanding all the implications of those monstrosities."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

The National Credit Union Administration is nearly two-thirds of the way to its goal of resecuritizing the distressed assets of 27 failed credit unions following the successful completion of its latest offering.

The deal closed on Jan. 18 and will settle either Thursday or Friday, according to Larry Fazio, NCUA deputy executive director and architect of the securitization platforms.

The latest deal is one class worth $1.5 billion of resecuritized residential mortgage-backed securities. Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's both rated the deal, which carries the full faith of the United States government, triple-A. This deal, like the others, is led solely by Barclays Capital.

In total, the NCUA plans to securitize $50 billion in unpaid principal balance, raising up to $35 billion in market proceeds.

This deal puts the NCUA at $20 billion.

The issue was oversubscribed six-fold and priced 45 basis points above one month Libor. The collateral is a mixed bag, quality wise of residential mortgage, though esoteric loans, such as subprime never reach above 2% of credit union origination during the housing bubble.

The notes carry a weighted average life of 4.39 years and will mature in nine years.

Despite the wrap, Fazio said the deal is overcollateralized to minimize the risk of drawing from the government guarantee.

"We design it to have overcollateralization so that we weren't issuing a type of unsecured debt into the market," Fazio said.

Fazio added that despite strong investor support, the foray into securitization as a financing method will end this year.

"Our hope is that it's our first and last issuances of securitizations," he said.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.



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