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Archive for January, 2011

Friday, January 14th, 2011

The economic advisory committee to the American Bankers Association believes the economy is on the mend and that lending will pick up 2.7% in 2011 over last year.

Chief economists at some of the largest banks in the world including JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.39 -0.27%), Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.375 +1.12%), convened Thursday to discuss the state of the U.S. economy. PNC Financial (PNC: 59.13 +0.39%) Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman said the market is weaning itself away from a need for monetary and fiscal stimulus.

"Businesses and consumers are feeling more confident about the economy, and job growth will accelerate as layoffs diminish and small business hiring picks up," Hoffman said.

While overall lending is expected to grow nearly 3% this year, Hoffman said loans to small business, often thought of as the largest hirers, will increase 4.3%.

"Bank lending is growing and will help finance the economic expansion," Hoffman said.

The committee expects job growth to improve and even accelerate by the end of the year, adding another 2.1 million private-sector jobs, nearly doubling the 1.1 million created in 2010. However, as other forecasts have shown, housing will be left behind, economists said.

"Strong exports and capital expenditures will also continue to fuel the expansion, even as weak housing and state and local government financial difficulties restrain the pace of expansion," the committee said.

Hoffman said there are still too many people unemployed and that while the ABA outlook is good news, "even stronger private-sector employment growth is needed if we are to achieve a self-sustaining economic expansion."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Friday, January 14th, 2011

JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.39 -0.27%) reported $13.3 billion in nonperforming loans and repossessed homes through foreclosure in the fourth quarter of 2010, up 27% from a year ago.

The bank Friday also reported fourth quarter earnings of $4.83 billion, an increase of 47% from a year earlier, and $17.3 billion in profit for the entire year,  up 48% from 2009.

But page 15 of its financial supplement shows a growing portfolio of loans either 90-plus days delinquent or already in REO.

For the fourth quarter, JPMorgan reported $996 million in seriously delinquent loans and REO not insured by government agencies like the Federal Housing Administration. Of this amount, the bank does not break down how much are mortgage, auto or student loans.

But when added to the $10.5 billion of government-insured nonperforming mortgages, up 16% from last year, and the $1.9 billion in REO, also insured by the government, the amount goes to $13.3 billion.

That's up 27% from the $10.4 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2009 and up 2% from the previous quarter. The biggest driver in the increase was the amount of government-insured REO. The $1.9 billion shown is more than double the $579 million reported a year ago.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jaime Dimon said in a statement released this morning that the bank has offered more than 1 million trial modifications on these loans since the beginning of 2009, and more than 285,000 have been completed. Half have been done through the bank's own programs with the rest coming through government-sponsored or agency programs such as the Home Affordable Modification Program or the FHA's initiative.

The bank did not immediately comment on the increase in nonperforming loans.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Seeking to buoy a strained rural economy in the midst of the recession, Congress ordered up a huge increase in federal mortgage guarantees for small-town home buyers as part of the 2009 economic stimulus package.

The response from lenders was immediate. The value of federally backed rural home loans soared to $16.2 billion in fiscal 2009, up from just $3.7 billion two years earlier. Last year, the guarantees reached nearly $16.8 billion.

Now, a newly released audit has found that the rural loan program, administered by the United States Department of Agriculture, was plagued by lax government oversight and many of the same sloppy banking practices that fed the broader mortgage debacle.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Procedural problems cut the rate at which homes are moved from foreclosure to REO in half during October and November, but the drop did not occur in judicial states alone, according to research from Barclays Capital.

In October, several major lenders froze foreclosures when employees were found to be signing affidavits without reviewing the documentation, as required by law in 23 states. As a result, the rate servicers were able to move these properties through the process into REO status dropped 57% from the first 10 months of the year. It's the lowest rate BarCap has ever measured (see chart below).

But states that do not have a judicial foreclosure system saw a 47% drop as well.

"This is not surprising because a borrower challenge even in non-judicial foreclosure states effectively converts the foreclosure into a judicial foreclosure," BarCap analysts said. "In addition, the judicial scrutiny was not limited to judicial states. As such, it made sense for servicers to assess and fix their processes across all states."

The largest decline came in New York, where the process nearly halted completely and the rate at which homes moved from foreclosure to REO dropped by 91%. New Jersey was the next closest with a 75% drop. The shortest decrease came in California, where the rate fell 35%. The rate in most other states declined by at least 50%.

When BarCap broke the numbers down by servicer, it showed that most had drops, but the rate at Bank of America (BAC: 7.25 -0.68%) slowed to a trickle, decreasing 95%. The next highest was Goldman Sachs' (GS: 109.63 +0.99%) Litton Loan Servicing, which had a drop of 74%, followed by the JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.39 -0.27%) decrease of 52%.

The robo-signing scandal pushed as many as 250,000 foreclosures ahead to 2011, RealtyTrac said Thursday, which will elevate numbers to new heights by the end of the year.

All servicers restarted foreclosures in October, but a new ruling in January from the Massachusetts Supreme Court may threaten any restarts since the robo-signing scandal. The ruling, which applies only to Massachusetts cases, stated that proper assignment of the mortgage note needs to be in place before a foreclosure can be initiated.

BarCap warns not to put too much emphasis on a one ruling in a single state, as what works there may not work in other jurisdictions. But analysts concede the Massachusetts ruling may be bleeding over to New York trust law. BarCap said investors may be able to claim that they were only transferred an unsecured interest in the loans since the mortgage was not correctly transferred. If this is the case, investors could sue the trustee or originator for a breach and force them to buyback the loans.

"Still, Massachusetts loans form only a small proportion of all loans," BarCap said. "Further, it is yet to be established that the transfers were not enough to assign the loan as per New York law, and further legal opinions are awaited."

Analysts said the rate at which foreclosures are moved to REO may not return to normal for another several quarters. Some foreclosures will need to be refiled, but it should not be a significant amount. If the worst happens, though, and widespread issues are found throughout the process and foreclosures are not allowed to carried out, the damage could mean frozen home sales and new lendng nationwide, according to BarCap.

"The implications of lenders' not being able to foreclose on defaulted loans would affect their willingness to lend and the rates charged to borrowers," analysts said. "In an environment in which the administration is trying to wean the housing market off taxpayer support, this could be even more devastating to home prices and, as a result, could nudge legislative action to ensure that any valid foreclosures are allowed to proceed while keeping checks and balances in place."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Friday, January 14th, 2011

The Phoenix-area housing market saw an overall slowdown in activity in 2010, except with foreclosures. Those were up, according to a report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

The report shows 106,975 single-family homes sold in 2010, down about 5% from 112,730 in 2009. Foreclosures (41,625) represented 39% of the transactions, up from 36% in 2009.

“About 4% of the single-family homes in Maricopa County were foreclosed in 2010,” said Associate Professor of Real Estate Jay Butler, who wrote the new report. “Since 2008, more than 11% of the single-family homes in the county have been foreclosed.”

The year drew to a close amid the robo-signing controversy and related legal challenges to the foreclosure process while the economy was starting to perk up a bit. Still, other issues remain, including stringent underwriting standards and a weak jobs recovery.

“The main question for 2011 is whether — when the issues are resolved — the market will begin a path to improvement or keep being dominated by foreclosures,” Butler said.

In December, more than 2,400 residential properties were foreclosed, up from about 2,100 in November.

The median price for a single-family home resold in December was $125,000, the lowest since April 2009, when it was the same level. For all of 2010, the median for traditional home resales (not including new foreclosures) was $138,000, slightly up from $135,000 in 2009, but down from $200,500 in 2008.

“Another influence is that, for the last year, approximately 40% of the traditional resales in the market were foreclosed homes sold again with a median markdown in price of 14%,” Butler said. “This is actually an improvement from 2009, when the markdown was 25%.”

In the 2010 townhouse/condominium market, the median price for traditional resales (not including new foreclosures) was $88,000 down from $106,000 in 2009. More than 4% of the townhome/condos in Maricopa County were foreclosed in 2010.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

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Friday, January 14th, 2011

The Financial Accounting Foundation appointed two new members to the Financial Accounting Standards Board, completing the move back to seven directors.

Joining the board are Daryl Buck, senior vice president and chief financial officer of Reasor's Holding Company in Tahlequah, Okla., and R. Harold Schroder, a partner at Carlson Capital in Greenwich, Conn.

"We are delighted to appoint Daryl and Hal to the FASB," said John Brennan, chairman of the foundation. "Daryl brings hands-on experience with the issues private companies are facing, along with great expertise garnered from his auditing background in serving the differing needs of many constituents. Hal has significant experience in all aspects of financial reporting and is driven by a strong dedication to transparency for investors."

As CFO of Reasor's, Buck has 18 years of experience in financial reporting, planning and analysis for a private company. He previously led audit engagements at Arthur Andersen & Co., and has served as a member of the private company financial reporting committee, which is an advisory group to FASB.

Schroder spent the last 30 years at Ernst & Young, where he served as a senior equity analyst, chief financial officer and an audit partner. Since he's been with Carlson Capital, a Dallas-based asset management company, he's overseen all financial services investments.

"Daryl and Hal’s backgrounds reflect the diversity of our stakeholders and align superbly with our challenging agenda to address important reporting issues for public and private companies, both domestic and international," said Leslie Seidman, chairman of FASB.

Seidman was recently appointed chairman after Robert Herz retired.

FASB announced in August it was returning to a seven-member structure, after having only five members for two years. The change was made to "enhance the FASB's investment in the convergence agenda with the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), while addressing the unprecedented challenges facing the American capital markets in the months and years ahead," according to Brennan.

Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, commended the announcement, saying it proved an ongoing effort from the foundation to "evaluate and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the structure and operation of FASB."

"In addition, this should enhance the ability of the FASB to address issues facing the U.S. capital markets and the needs of investors," she said.

The foundation oversees, administers and finances both the FASB and the Governmental Accounting Standards Board.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.39 -0.27%) boosted its Tier 1 capital ratio throughout most of 2010, as banks continue to strengthen reserves in the new regulatory environment.

The banking giant estimated Basel 1 Tier 1 common capital of $115.16 billion, for a ratio of 9.8%, at Dec. 31, up from $110.84 billion, or 9.5%, as of the end of the third quarter. The non-GAAP metric is used by regulators, investors and analysts to compare the capital positions of banks and other financial services companies.

JPMorgan Chase estimated a Tier 1 capital ratio of 7% under the requirements of Basel 3 as of the end of the year, with capital reserves of $33 billion and a loan-loss coverage ratio of 4.5%.

Earlier Friday, JPMorgan reported record earnings of $17.4 billion for the year with fourth-quarter income of $4.83 billion, or $1.12 a share. The company also said the level of  nonperforming loans and repossessed homes through foreclosure rose 27% for the fourth quarter to $13.3 billion.

On a conference call, Chief Financial Officer Doug Braunstein said the company now meets the capital ratio mandate of 7% under Basel 3, although banks aren't required to do as much until Jan. 1, 2019. Basel 3 increases the minimum common-equity requirement to 4.5% from 2% and orders banks hold a capital-conservation buffer of 2.5%. He said fourth-quarter results were strong across all the company's business, and JPMorgan Chase ended the period with total loans of $56.9 billion, which is up 6% from the end of the third quarter.

"We are beginning to see new business activity build, and as a result of that, some increasing demand in loans, as the market for credit and the economy generally pick up," Braunstein said.

JPMorgan Chase collected $1.8 billion in global investment banking fees in 2010.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

[Update 1: corrects originator of Zang loan]

KeyBank Real Estate Capital, the lending arm of KeyBank Corp. (KEY: 7.945 +0.82%), recently financed three North Texas multifamily properties and refinanced another Texas property with $71.9 million of Federal Housing Administration funds.

Lang Partners received a $23.5 million loan for 260-unit development under construction at Zang Triangle in the Oak Cliff section of Dallas. The real estate investment fund develops properties within the urban core of American cities. The Hebron 212 Station in Lewisville, Texas, received a $20.1 million loan through Huffines Communities, a North Texas residential real estate developer. The newly constructed property has 234 units.

KeyBank originated a $15.5 million FHA loan for First Enterprise Corp. for The Lodge at Pecan Creek, a new, 192-unit property in Denton, Texas.

Bandera Common, a 240-unit property in San Antonio, received an $11.7 million refinance loan.

In October, KeyBank Real Estate Capital provided $39.4 million in Fannie Mae funding to refinance a multifamily property in Southern California.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Disclosure: The author holds no relevant investments.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Many politicians talk about America's large and growing federal debt, but they've taken little corrective action. We know that our political system responds to a crisis, but it would be very costly to Americans to wait for an acute fiscal crisis similar to the one currently facing Europe. Our leaders must act while the U.S. continues to enjoy the benefits of a strong Treasury market.

Policy makers often ask how much time we have before markets lose confidence in Treasurys. No one knows for sure: It could be many years from now, but confidence could also fall rapidly.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM: 37.39 -0.27%) fourth-quarter income rose 47% to $4.83 billion, or $1.12 a share, from $3.28 billion, or 74 cents a share, a year earlier.

Revenue for the three months ended Dec. 31 rose 13% to $26.1 billion from $23.16 billion a year ago.

The financial services giant's mortgage banking and other consumer lending unit reported fourth-quarter income of $577 million, more than double the $266 million earned the year earlier. Mortgage banking revenue for the quarter rose 74% to $2 billion from $1.1 billion in 2009, buoyed by gains in mortgage-loan originations to $50.8 billion, up 46% from the year earlier and an increase of 24% from the third quarter.

The company said fourth-quarter mortgage fees and related income included $749 million of net production revenue, $574 million of servicing operating revenue and $286 million of MSR risk-management revenue. Excluding repurchase losses of about $349 million, production revenue more than doubled for the fourth quarter to $1.1 billion from $482 million a year earlier, boosted by higher mortgage origination volumes and wider margins, the company said.

JPMorgan reported a fourth-quarter loss of $823 million for its real estate portfolio, narrower than a loss of $1.7 billion a year ago. The company said its loan loss provisions for the portfolio for the quarter fell to $2.3 billion from $3.7 billion a year earlier. The 2010 fourth quarter included a $2.1 billion increase in allowances for loan losses included in the Washington Mutual portfolio JPMorgan Chase acquired.

The company recorded a $632 million adjustment in loan loss provisions for the quarter related to the timing of recognizing charge-offs on delinquent loans in the mortgage loan portfolio. JPMorgan Chase also added $1.5 billion to its litigation reserves during the period "predominately for mortgage-related matters."

"We remain committed to helping homeowners and preventing foreclosures," Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said. "Since the beginning of 209, we have offered 1,038,000 trial modifications to struggling homeowners. Of the 285,000 modifications we completed, more than 50% were modified under Chase programs, and the remainder were offered under government-sponsored or agency programs."

For 2010, JPMorgan Chase earned $17.37 billion, or $3.96 a share, up 48% from $11.73 billion, or $2.26 a share, for 2009. The company's full-year revenue increased about 2% to $102.69 billion last year, up from $100.43 billion the year earlier.

Institutional Risk Analytics moved its view of JPMorgan Chase to neutral from negative, as the fourth-quarter and year results "are superficially strong, but dependent on the continued aggressive posture of management with respect to reserves and future losses."

"The bank has unresolved credit and legacy issues, but not to the extent of its peers, thus the upgrade," said Christopher Whalen, co-founder of the firm. " JPM is, at the end of the day, a bet on whether the U.S. economy is going to see higher unemployment and lower home prices in 2011. We believe that the latter, lower home prices in 2011, is a given and thus our down 10% estimate in the MacroMarkets survey run by Bob Shiller. The real question is how continued weakness in housing affects employment and bank loss severities."

Write to Jason Philyaw.



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