RSS Twitter

Archive for January, 2011

Monday, January 17th, 2011

One Federal Reserve official doesn't expect the housing market to spur economy growth, as it has in prior recoveries, and he defended the central bank's monetary and fiscal policy decisions as necessary and appropriate.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said Friday some economic indicators show the recovery is finally taking root, and most project GDP growth of about 3.3% this year. Rosengren said he's slightly more optimistic and expects 3.5% to 4% growth, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain higher than 9% all year, placing tremendous stress on the recovery. He doesn't expect full employment to return for at least another four years.

He also defended the Fed's controversial bond buying program, known as quantitative easing, as "absolutely appropriate" and "deployed in a way that encourages a more robust recovery."

In early November, the central bank announced plans to purchase $600 billion of long-term Treasury securities. Some analysts and economists deride the plan as stoking inflation, and some Fed members believe QE2 doesn't provide benefits that outweigh costs.

Rosengren doesn't expect housing to provide the same level of economic stimulus that it has in prior recoveries.

"In many areas of the country the impaired balance sheets of borrowers, high foreclosures, and high vacancy rates imply a long time before local housing markets normalize," he told those gathered at the New England Mortgage Expo Friday.

He said the changed landscape of home mortgages points to continued troubles in the housing industry.

"It is striking how the distribution of purchase mortgages has changed," Rosengren said. "Credit standards have tightened, as evidenced by a shift to borrowers with higher credit scores. Given what has happened to housing prices, and unemployment, lenders are presumably more cautious in lending. Far fewer loans are going to borrowers with credit scores below 625, and many more purchase loans are going to borrowers with credit scores above 750. In 2006, about 15% of the purchase loans were to borrowers with credit scores below 625, but by 2010, this fraction had fallen to only 3.5%."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Monday, January 17th, 2011

Dutch financial institution ING (ING: 9.19 -0.22%) said Monday that it is in talks with several parties on the sale of parts of its real estate investment management businesses.

While ING is not commenting on the negotiations, the market is speculating that several large commercial real estate companies are competing in deals that Reuters estimates could reach $1.5 billion.

"These contacts may or may not lead to one or more transactions," a brief statement from ING states. "Any speculation on scope, pricing and conditions of possible transactions would be premature."

The health of ING is not in speculation, however, as the company said it will split its banking and insurance operations after incurring a heavy impairment charge in the third quarter of last year. ING remains on the hook for half of its $13 billion bailout from the Dutch government in 2008.

ING also needed to boost reserve funds relating to its legacy variable annuity business in the U.S. Standard & Poor's reported on Nov. 10, that the low interest rate environment in the U.S. "increased risks relating to ING's legacy VA business."

CB Richard Ellis is said to be the front-runner in the bidding and, in all likelihood, ING will report its U.S. legacy variable annuity business as a separate business line from its other operations before any deal can be completed.

ING serves more than 85 million private, corporate and institutional clients in more than 40 countries.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.


Monday, January 17th, 2011

Continued high unemployment and a lack of demand for new homes will keep any housing recovery at bay until the end of 2012, according to one real estate strategy firm.

The Concord Group also expects the seemingly ever-growing inventory of distressed properties to create challenges for a recovery, as well.

"We believe job growth in 2011-2012 coupled with limited delivery of new lots will create faster absorption and a rapid demand for new home supplies," said Andrew Borsanyi, principal at The Concord Group and co-author of the report.

The company expects some markets to improve faster than others, specifically San Diego, San Jose, Calif., and Orange County, Calif. The strong growth in demographic characteristics, recovering reemployment levels and structurally low inventory should benefit these three Golden State markets by the middle of this year.

A few larger cities – Dallas, Denver, Seattle and Washington – should see recoveries in land sales by the end of 2011 with increases in new home sales by the end of next year, which is in line with the firm's estimates for the nation as a whole.

Meanwhile, markets such as Las Vegas and Phoenix will continue to experience high unemployment, a high level of foreclosures, and lot oversupply that combined project to keep recovery lagging in those areas.

"Recovery has been slowed in part due to the drop in new home demand following the expiration of the government’s tax credit, continued economic uncertainty and the competition from distressed inventory," said Richard Gollis, principal and co-founder of The Concord Group.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Monday, January 17th, 2011

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon's not sweating the bad mortgage problem hanging over the bank.

The chief executive said last week that JPMorgan has set aside enough in reserves to deal with potential settlements and litigation related to charges that the bank improperly documented home mortgages.

Monday, January 17th, 2011

A look at news across HousingWire's weekend desk, with more coverage to come on bigger issues:

The Department of Housing and Urban Development awarded nearly $127 million in grants to 48 local projects Saturday to clean lead-based paint and prevent other house safety hazards.

According to a blog post over the weekend by Jon Gant, director of the HUD office of healthy homes and lead hazard control, the grants will help restore 11,000 homes, train workers in lead safety and increase public awareness about the dangers posed to children. Roughly $10 million of these funds will also go to addressing other issues such as mold, moisture, fire hazards, radon and carbon monoxide poisoning.

In May 2009, HUD awarded $100 million in Recovery Act funds to the same cause. HUD was able to make more than 16,700 homes safe that year, and in the last decade, the amount of children who tested positive for lead poisoning fell from 8% a decade ago to less than 1% today.

The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a rule late Friday detailing how security-based swaps participants should disclose information in the transaction to others involved in the deal.

The rule created under powers given to the SEC by the Dodd-Frank Act to regulate the securities industry establishes standards for the confirmation and documentation of security-based swap transactions such as credit default swaps, which were rampant during the housing boom.

The rule requires all participants in a deal to provide electronic record of information. It also requires a party in the deal to acknowledge a transaction within 15 minutes, 30 minutes or 24 hours of the execution depending on if the transaction was processed electronically or not.

December home sales in San Diego fell 17% from the year before, but the area's housing inventory remains in stable condition, according to a report from the Berkland Group, a research firm based in the area.

In the first half of 2010, when the homebuyer tax credit was still in force, home sales trended 2.5% higher than the same period the year before, but fell 14.5% off of the 2009 pace in the back half of the year.

Still, though, more evidence shows that San Diego is one of the fastest markets to a recovery. The housing inventory there reached 5.9 months worth of homes. A balanced market usually has a six-month supply of homes for sale, the Berkland Group said.

Rents on apartments fell in nearly 60% of U.S. markets during the fourth quarter, though most were minimal, according to real estate data provider Real Facts.

The average rent on an apartment is $956, down $2 from the previous quarter. This according to the firm shows that the sector is not distressed. The occupancy rate remained unchanged at 92.8% from the previous three months and up 1.7% from a year ago.

Real Facts said many landlords are hoping to push prices back to pre-crisis levels, but buyers aren't budging.

"The reality is that today’s market belongs to the renter, especially those with good credit," Real Facts said. "Renter’s are clearly demonstrating price resistance for this commodity at the present moment and property owners will have to play the waiting game as the economy makes its snail paced comeback."

One bank closed over the weekend, bringing the total for 2011 so far to three. The Georgia Department of Banking and Finance closed Ogiethorpe Bank, and Bank of the Ozarks agreed to assume all $212.7 million in deposits.

It also agreed to purchase essentially all $230.6 million in total assets. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates the closing to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund $80.4 million.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Sunday, January 16th, 2011

Maybe Canada has something to teach the U.S. about housing finance.

One in four U.S. homes is thought to be worth less that the mortgage being paid on it. One in every 492 U.S. homes received a foreclosure notice in November. For the fourth year running, analysts are speculating on where the bottom is for U.S. real estate.

No such worries up here in Canada – yet its system of mortgage finance gets little attention in the U.S.

Not a single Canadian bank failed during the Great Depression, and not a single one failed during the recent U.S. crisis now dubbed the Great Recession. Less than 1 percent of all Canadian mortgages are in arrears.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Housing will see gradual improvements this year, establishing momentum for stronger gains in 2012, said economists at the National Association of Home Builders International Builders’ Show in Orlando this week.

“This year’s spring selling season will be better than last year’s,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, with job growth providing a stronger stimulus in the housing market than last year’s federal homebuyer tax credit.

Crowe forecasted 575,000 single-family home starts in 2011, a 21% climb over an estimated 475,000 units started in 2010, which in turn showed a 7% gain from the 442,000 homes started in 2009.

He attributed the brighter forecast to gradual improvements expected in the economy and jobs market.

Multifamily, which has seen the bottom of the market, is poised to profit from a disproportionate number of Gen Y’ers moving into the housing market. Multifamily starts will rise 16% this year to 133,000 units, with a predicted 53% increase in 2012 to 203,000 units, according to the NAHB forecast.

Builders’ access to credit remains the fragile component of the NAHB forecast, Crowe said. So far, small builders have experienced extreme difficulty in obtaining financing. Rectifying the situation as soon as possible is the top priority of the association.

New-home sales, Crowe projected, “will struggle” but begin following employment gains, reaching 405,000 for the year, up from an estimate of about 320,000 for 2010.

The housing recovery will start slowly this year, he said, because it will be driven by the relatively low housing-production Plains states, with Texas the most powerful of the bunch. Traditional bulwarks such as California and Florida will lag in the recovery.

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said that housing affordability and demographic trends will help support growing housing demand.

Citing research from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Nothaft said that households should be growing at an average annual rate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million over the next five to 10 years, suggesting the need for a sharp increase in housing production; half of the 500,000 to 600,000 starts of the past two years were needed just to replace the number of homes being removed from the housing stock.

Nothaft said supply overhangs will persist in some important large markets, but expects the housing price slump to bottom out by the middle of this year.

“Potential buyers who have resources to buy but want to buy at the bottom are likely to start coming into the market in the springtime,” he said.

Fixed-rate mortgages will move up from their current 4.75% to the 5.75% range by the end of this year, he forecasted. This will push total single-family mortgage originations down about 30% below the 2010 level as refinancings fall sharply with rising mortgage rates.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Stocks of the big four banks closed up Friday after JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 37.403 -0.23%) reported a 47% increase in earnings in the fourth quarter earlier in the day.

The bank earned $3.28 billion during the quarter and $17.3 billion for the entire year, also a 48% increase from 2009. Institutional Risk Analytics even moved its view of JPMorgan Chase stock to "neutral" from "negative" on the news. Chase's stock increased 46 cents Friday, or 1.03%.

Citigroup (C: 30.5488 +0.56%) saw its shares climb 9 cents or 1.79%. It will report its earnings Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC: 7.26 -0.55%) ended the day up 46 cents, a 1.03% increase. It is set to report its earnings on Jan. 21.

Wells Fargo (WFC: 29.385 +1.15%) shares increased 86 cents or 2.7%. Its earnings are due out Wednesday.

Investment banks, too, reaped rewards Friday. Goldman Sachs (GS: 109.655 +1.01%) stock increased $3.43 a share or 2%. Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.10 -0.28%) grew 68 cents or 2.4%. Shares of BlackRock (BLK: 187.67 -0.10%) also rose, tacking on $3.25 a share, or 1.66% for the day.

Larger dividends on Wall Street might have to involve a government approval, but as the banks continue to heal their balance sheets, economists believe lending will increase in 2011.

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Delinquencies within collateralized debt obligations in commercial real estate loans closed 13% higher in 2010 than a year earlier, according to Fitch Ratings.

The credit rating agency said the rate of December delinquencies rose to 13.6% from 12.7% in November, due primarily to higher defaulted REIT debt and increased credit impairments in CMBS.

Newly delinquent loans in December included one matured balloon, one term default and 10 credit risk securities. Only one delinquent loan was cured. Resolving these delinquent loans will sometimes call for a principal write-down on the loan. But this sort of workout can lead to further downgrades on the bonds, according to Fitch.

On Friday, the rating agency downgraded 45 bonds in 33 U.S. CMBS transactions to "D" for that very reason. The bonds were already rated in the junk categories between "B" and "C", indicating Fitch expected a default.

However, Fitch said the commercial real estate loan/CDO delinquency rate may not have an impact on ratings.

"The current rise in the delinquency rate is not expected to impact ratings as Fitch Ratings' analysis of each CREL CDO takes into account potential increases," said Stacey McGovern, Fitch director. "Ratings on the most junior classes, however, remain subject to volatility as losses are realized, which may differ from expectations."

The agency rates 34 CREL CDOs that collectively include about 1,100 loans and 400 securities with an aggregate balance of $20.9 billion.

Commercial delinquencies are taking a toll on the market in the New Year, according to analytics firm Trepp. Analysts said shortfalls on the "Beacon Seattle and DC Portfolio" have now reached the D class.

The Beacon loan is the second largest in CMBS at $2.64 billion and received a loan modification in December. The loan was granted a five-year maturity extension, and the interest rate on the loan dropped to 3% from 5.97%. The note is split across six deals from 2007.

"The (deal) saw interest shortfalls jump drastically due to the modification," Trepp said. "Prior to January, shortfalls had only reached up to the M class. The January remittance report saw shortfalls smack another eight classes."

Trepp told investors to be conscious of large shortfalls on this investment, from the J to the D classes, but added, "at some point these shortfalls will get paid back and the pay back could be substantial."

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Friday, January 14th, 2011

American International Group has fully repaid the revolving line of credit it received from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

On Friday, the NY Fed reported the company closed its recapitalization agreement and has no obligations outstanding with the central bank. AIG repaid $21 billion of the credit facility Friday and also converted other debt obligations into common shares, which resulted in the Treasury Department owning about 92% of common shares outstanding. It's expected the Treasury will sell those shares and recoup its investment in the company.

The Fed said the credit facility wasn't set to expire until September 2013, but AIG has fully repaid all interest and fees. The central bank initially provided AIG with an $85 billion line of credit in September 2008. The amount was restructured and lowered numerous times because some of the company's debt obligations were transferred to the Treasury Department.

"Today is a very important day that should be viewed as a testament to the unrelenting dedication of terrific people both in the government and at AIG," said President and Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche. "Based on our success over the last two years in stabilizing our businesses, retaining our clients, achieving momentum in sales, restoring relationships with distribution partners, and returning to normal rates of employee turnover, we are confident that we can continue to build long-term value for all of our stakeholders, including U.S. taxpayers, and demonstrate through our actions going forward that we are worthy of investor confidence."

The NY Fed said AIG stabilized its results by reducing the risk, scope and complexity of its operations.

"Today's closing represents a substantial step toward achieving the Federal Reserve’s dual goals of stabilizing AIG and ensuring its repayment of government assistance," the Fed said.

William Dudley, president of the NY Fed, said the repayment "concludes an important effort by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial system in order to protect the U.S. economy."

Write to Jason Philyaw.



Origination/Lending
Consumer sentiment climbed to an index level of 75 in January, the best reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan...

Read More »

Secondary Markets/Investors
The new federal task force led by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman sent subpoenas to the 11 largest financial...

Read More »