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Archive for January, 2011

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

The Treasury Department is due to deliver its recommendations on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform in the coming weeks.

Residential mortgage bond analysts at Credit Suisse say they expect the de facto guarantee the government-sponsored enterprises currently carry to become set in stone, explicitly leaving the U.S. and the American taxpayer on the hook for any losses.

It's a move large bond investors, such as PIMCO, have sought for some time.

"The absence of such a feature could significantly widen MBS spreads and result in outperformance of GN/FN swaps," said Credit Suisse analysts Mahesh Swaminathan, Mukul Chhabra and Qumber Hassan.

In the meantime, they recommend investors hold long MBS basis trades "given what we believe are cheap valuations. The trade is down 5+ ticks since inception."

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

Existing homes sales shot up 12.3% in December, coming in well above most analysts' estimates and marking growth in five of the final six months of 2010.

The National Association of Realtors said seasonally adjusted sales rose to an annualized rate of 5.28 million last month from 4.7 million for November, which was upwardly revised a few thousand. The monthly rate is down 2.9% from the 5.44 million units in December 2009.

Economists polled by Econoday were expecting the December annualized rate to climb to 4.9 million with a range of estimates from 4.55 million and 5.04 million. A Briefing.com survey projected a rate of 4.85 million units for last month.

"December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. "The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery. The December pace is near the volume we’re expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level. The recovery will likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional affordability conditions remain."

NAR said the median existing-home price in December was $168,000, down 1% from a year earlier, and hurt the number of distressed sales that are normally discounted 10% to 15%, according to Yun.

The level of distressed-home sales last month rose to 36% of the existing-home market, up from 33% in November and 32% a year earlier.

NAR said all-cash sales have remained consistently high for the past six months at nearly 30% of the market. In December, all-cash transactions accounted for 29% of all sales down from 31% in November yet higher than 22% a year earlier.

The giant real estate industry group, which measures the completed transactions of single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops, now puts the inventory of existing homes at 3.56 million, which is an 8.1-month supply and down 4.2% from November when inventory represented a 9.5-month supply.

Mortgage interest rates rose steadily the last few weeks of 2010 and the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.71% in December up from 4.3% a month earlier. Rates reached the lowest level in generations in early November at 4.07%, according to Zillow.

In late December, Freddie Mac said the average rate for a traditional 30-year mortgage in 2010 was the lowest since 1955 at 4.7%.

"Historically low mortgage interest rates, stable home prices, and pent-up demand are drawing home buyers into the market," said NAR President Ron Phipps. "Recent home buyers have been successful with very low default rates, given the outstanding performance for loans originated in 2009 and 2010."

Sales of single-family homes rose 12% in December from the prior month but were 2.5% lower than a year earlier. Existing condo and co-op sales increase 16.4% from November yet remain 5.2% below the 2009 pace, according to NAR.

"The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit," according to analysts at Capital Economics. "But high unemployment, tight credit conditions and fears of more price declines mean that further upward progress will be gradual."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

After rising for a few weeks, initial jobless claims fell nearly 8.4% last week to 404,000, well below analysts' estimates and the largest decline since February.

The Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted figure of actual initial claims for the week ended Jan. 15 fell by 37,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised figure of 441,000.

Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected jobless claims to come in at 420,000 with a range of estimates from 397,000 to 435,000. A Briefing.com survey projected new claims of 430,000 for last week. Weekly claims continue to inch closer to 400,000, which is the level most economists believe indicates the economy is expanding and jobs growth is strengthening.

The four-week moving average, which is considered a less volatile indicator than weekly claims, decreased by 4,000 to 411,750 from a revised average of 415,750. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained 3.1% for the week ended Jan. 8, according to the Labor Department.

The total number of people receiving some sort of federal unemployment benefits continues to climb, rising another 4.4% to more than 9.6 million for the week ended Jan. 1.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

Investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS: 18.11 -0.22%) reported income of $4.5 billion, or $2.44 a  share, for 2010, led primarily by growth in its advisory and underwriting businesses.

"Our asset management business also delivered significantly improved performance this year, as we refocused the business around our core strengths, hired key talent and addressed legacy issues," said CEO James Gorman. Asset management revenues hit $2.7 billion in 2010.

Full-year revenue rose 35% to $31.6 billion from $23.4 billion in 2009, when the company reported a loss of $907 million, or 77 cents a share, including revenue and expenses "related to legacy Smith Barney operations, that were incremental to the firm’s financial results subsequent to the closing on May 31, 2009."

Morgan Stanley also said the results for the year include about $1 billion, or 65 cents a share, "associated with discrete tax gains."

Net revenue for the fourth quarter rose to $7.8 billion from $6.8 billion a year earlier. Quarterly results include negative revenue of $945 million, or 36 cents a share, from debt-related credit spreads, down from $5.5 billion in 2009.

Compensation expenses of $16 billion increased from $14.4 billion a year ago related to the U.K. government's payroll tax on 2009 discretionary bonuses.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

PNC Financial Services Group (PNC: 59.14 +0.41%) reported record income for 2010, even as its residential mortgage banking unit saw earnings drop more than 35% during the fourth quarter as it was hit with higher foreclosure costs.

PNC had net income of $3.4 billion, or $5.74 per share, compared with 2009 net income of $2.4 billion, or $4.36 per share. Revenue was $15.17 billion, down from $16.23 billion a year ago.

For the fourth quarter, PNC earned $798 million, or $1.50 per share, compared to $1.1 billion, or $2.17 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2009. Revenue was $3.9 billion, down from $4.89 billion in the year-ago period.

Excluding gains linked to BlackRock's acquisition of Barclays Global Investors, PNC said adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter were $1.60, up from 90 cents a year earlier.

“Net income and Tier 1 capital reached record levels, we transitioned to a higher quality balance sheet and credit quality has improved,” said James E. Rohr, chairman and chief executive officer.

PNC's residential mortgage banking unit earned $275 million for the full year compared with $435 million for 2009. The decline was driven by a decrease in loan sales revenue from lower origination volumes and lower net hedging gains on mortgage servicing rights. Earnings for the residential mortgage unit were $3 million in the fourth quarter compared with $25 million in the fourth quarter of 2009. Earnings declined primarily due to higher foreclosure-related expenses and, when compared to the previous quarter, by lower net hedging gains on mortgage servicing rights.

Noninterest expense for the fourth quarter of 2010 was $2.3 billion compared to $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009, due in part to higher residential mortgage expenses principally related to foreclosure activities.

Overall credit quality continued to improve during the fourth quarter of 2010. Nonperforming assets declined $368 million to $5.3 billion as of Dec. 31. Accruing loans past due decreased $133 million, or 7%, during the quarter to $1.9 billion at year-end. The allowance for loan and lease losses was $4.9 billion, or 3.25% of total loans and 109% of nonperforming loans, as of Dec. 31.

Residential mortgage fees in the fourth quarter declined $59 million, or 27%, from the third quarter mainly as a result of lower net hedging gains on mortgage servicing rights and lower loan servicing revenue.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

The author holds no relevant investments.

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Outstanding mortgage debt continued to contract over 2010 reflecting a decreased appetite for homeownership, according to economic researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Mortgage debt outstanding in the fourth quarter was down 2.5% from the same period a year ago.

Other forms of household debt also decreased due in part to people defaulting on their monetary obligations, the Cleveland Fed said in a report authored by O. Emre Ergungor and Beth Mowry. Revolving debt, such as credit card debts, dropped 9.8% year-over-year, while nonrevovling debt, including student and auto loans, decreased 0.9%.

Analysts at Bank or America Merrill Lynch previously attested that the most likely way households greatly deleverage debt is through default on an underwater mortgage. According to their estimates, Americans deleverage roughly $1 trillion in outstanding debt this way.

Lender Processing Services reported that in November 2.2 million mortgage loans were 90 or more days delinquent.

Households defaulting on their obligations led to an increase in bankruptcy filings. The Fed reported that in 2005 filings spiked to nearly 700,000; however, after the government passed the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act later that year, filings dropped almost seven-fold to 100,000 the next year.

"Since that initial post-reform setback, bankruptcies have risen more rapidly than ever," the Cleveland Fed wrote in a recent report. In 2010, there were approximately 400,000 bankruptcy filings.

The Cleveland Fed said the personal savings rate is 5.3%, down from its peak of more than 6% in June. However, the all-time low was set in April 2005 at 0.8%. The personal savings rate is often associated with money in the bank, but the Fed says the number refers to people paying down their debts.

The National Association of Home Builders and MetLife recently conducted a study that found older homeowners have to tap into their savings for down payments on new homes. The Federal Reserve Bank reported in December household debt decreased 1.75% in the third quarter of 2010.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

[Update 1: Aristar Funding Corp. comment]

If local governments succeed in the fight against how banks have recorded the transfer of mortgage notes through the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, home loans could become as expensive as credit cards, K&L Gates Partner Laurence Platt said Wednesday.

At the last panel of the Mortgage Bankers Association summit on the future of mortgage servicing, Platt and Adam Levitin, an associate professor at Georgetown University Law Center, discussed the validity of MERS. The company was created by major lenders to become the single title holder of a mortgage as the owners of the note made transfers back and forth through securitization.

This, Platt said, was a solution to "antiquated filing systems" at the local level. In Chicago's Cook County, for example, it can take up to a year for a lender to receive a recorded mortgage back at the time of foreclosure, prepayments and other actions.

But local jurisdictions such as the states of California and Virginia are fighting to void foreclosures completed where the lender lays claim to the enforceability of the credit – meaning if the lender can use MERS to prove it has the right to foreclose – on two basis, Platt said.

One, MERS replaces the fees lenders used to pay to local governments for recording these notes, and these governments are claiming the banks still have to pay fees for the transfers. Second, Platt said, they are trying to score political points, which will only end up hurting borrowers in the future.

"My biggest concern is that local jurisdictions are enacting laws that change the centuries old law on recorded assignments in their locales, and that would void all mortgages in their jurisdiction," Platt said. "But Virginia didn't require assignments in the past. So, if that law passes, you will not be able to foreclose in the commonwealth in Virginia. It's turning real property law on its head."

But Levitin pointed out the inaccuracies and full-out holes in the MERS system. In cases he looked up, often the investor or the servicer on the MERS system did not match what was on the note.

"MERS ceases to track transfers once the loan is moved into another system," Levitin explained.

J.T. Smith, executive vice president and chief investment officer of Aristar Funding Corp., a boutique investment-baking firm based in Florida, said Platt overstates the situation and effect.

"The issue is assigned or endorsed in blank does not allow for proper tracking of ownership and was also designed to avoid paying transfer taxes. I think we can all agree that in an advanced society we should not be laying claims to real estate ownership based on who is 'bearing' the note," Smith said. "There is no reason we cannot have full endorsements and transfer taxes paid on every loan sale. Nobody has to wait for the recordation to take place, to resell or package the loan into RMBS, just do the assignments correctly and all is well."

Platt admitted there were issues with the system, but he warned that scoring short-term political points could be the end of affordable housing.

"They are making secured credit unenforceable," Platt said. "If you think you're going to get 4% mortgages on unsecured loans, you're wrong. You're going to get credit card rates. MERS was designed to make it easy to transfer assignments in modern economics."

Write to Jon Prior.

Follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Ah, change. I love/hate it.

Between December 1998 and August 2006, I had 10 different addresses. I guess the anticipation of a new place to put my stuff always outweighed the dreadfulness of moving it all. The change was usually good in the end, but, man, I hated the actual move.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are about to change. Something's going to happen. Make them completely private. Abolish them. Enhance them. Change is all-but-assured to happen and most likely sooner rather than later.

But Freddie CEO Ed Haldeman said in a blog post this week that the GSEs have been something of a steadily rising tide lifting all boats amid the worst ebb to hit the housing market in decades. I'm sure not everyone shares his opinion.

"Our counter-cyclical presence in the market ensures that borrowers have access to affordable mortgage funding in any environment and in all geographic markets," Haldeman said.

He said conventional mortgages remain affordable and available, "due in large part" to the role Fannie and Freddie play in the global market, which is to provide stability, liquidity, and accessibility to housing finance.

As others lenders fled the market for various reasons, the GSEs market share rose and rose and rose. In 2009, Fannie and Freddie accounted for about 72% of all mortgage-backed securities issued in the U.S. compared to 3% issued by private-label securitizers. In 2006, private-label MBS were 56% of the market with the GSEs issuing about 40%. Haldeman said the GSEs help homeowners the most by keeping interest rates low, as mortgages purchased by Fannie and Freddie are significantly more affordable than loans they cannot buy because of federally mandated loan limits.

Change is coming to the GSEs. The Obama administration is expected to provide Congress with its recommendations on reforming mortgage financing before the end of January.

HousingWire's February issue explores those coming changes, weighing all sides and delving deep into what market participants hope to see, expect will happen and plan to do once the changes take root.

"We expect the federal government to continue to play an integral role in the recovery of housing for at least this year," Haldeman said. "This will help ensure that – even as the financial markets continue to change – Freddie Mac’s ability to serve America’s homeowners and renters will remain strong."

So, Haldeman doesn't expect much movement this year.

I doubt I'll be moving again soon, as well. Refinanced into a 30-year, fixed with a decent (but not great) rate of 5.75% a few years back and hate to move…again. Even if I am starting to get a little antsy for a change of scenery after nearly five years in my current home.

That might have something to do with the seven-foot Fraser fir that's STILL sitting in my living room and January is almost over.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Housing stats decreased 4.3% in December to the lowest rate 14 months, according to Commerce Department data.

Permits for new homes shot up 16.7% from the prior month to 635,000 but remained nearly 7% below the year earlier. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said "scheduled changes in building codes in January in California, New York and Pennsylvania may have been responsible for much of the December increase, as builders sought to obtain permits ahead of the code change."

In a joint release, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said starts fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 529,000 units, down from a revised 533,000 for November and 8.2% lower than a year earlier. Analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting housing starts to come in at 550,000 with a range of estimates between 510,000 and 588,000.

"Today’s data show that the housing market is still very volatile from month to month," Secretary Locke said. "This administration is keenly focused on expanding employment and economic growth, and as job creation progresses, the incomes of the American people will strengthen and help put the housing market back on track."

Analysts surveyed by Econoday were expecting housing starts of 550,000 for December with a estimates ranging from 527,000 to 585,000. Fannie Mae is expecting the housing starts market to boom in the next two years, tripling last year's amount by 2013.

"Housing may be gaining forward momentum but adverse weather appears to have delayed groundbreaking," said analysts at the firm, which tracks economic announcements. "The gain in permits may be a significant positive as it in part reflects optimism of homebuilders. December starts were relatively weak and this likely was due to atypically adverse weather for the month. Permits are much less affected by weather as homebuilders simply fill out paperwork indoors while starts depend on whether bulldozers and workers have good weather to operate."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

New York Superintendent of Banks Richard Neiman Wednesday outlined the state's strong major mortgage servicing rules at the Mortgage Bankers Association summit on the future of servicing working lunch in Washington, D.C.

Neiman believes his state's mortgage servicing regulations are as tight as anywhere in the country and should be a model regulators consider when developing a national standard for the industry.

New York requires mortgage servicers to act in good faith when working with delinquent loans. They are also formally pushed to pursue alternatives to foreclosure such as modifications and short sales and make these decisions within specific timeframes. Third, servicers are required to hold adequate staffing and ensure regulators that homeowners do not have to send multiple copies of financial documentation.

While considering a borrower for a trial modification, servicers are prohibited from pursuing a foreclosure in New York. And when it comes to decision making, modification approvals must be clear and understandable with the costs and terms written clearly. Any denials must state specifically why the borrower was denied and provide contact information for someone at the bank who can reconsider.

But these new rules have not come easily. The foreclosure timeline in New York is the longest in the country, sometimes taking upward of two years to complete, data show.

Ally Financial's (GJM: 22.43 -0.62%) CEO of mortgage operations Tom Marano said at a previous panel discussion that gathering that documentation is "the biggest friction point."

"Assign one individual to the customer when he's trying to fill out that package," he said. "Getting the financial information and getting that counseling done up front is the best possible solution."

Marano admitted the servicing industry was not perfect. In fact, Ally was one of the first servicers caught with improperly filed foreclosure affidavits. But it also holds one of the largest conversion rates from trial modifications into permanent status for the Treasury Department's Home Affordable Modification Program.

On Tuesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and other regulators announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were working with servicers to develop a national standard that may not be out until the summer of 2012.

Neiman said regulators across different jurisdictions need to get on the same page in developing these new rules. He called for a renewed effort for agents and agencies across all levels of oversight to work together, and added that a template was already in place.

"We believe our rules are the most comprehensive in the country," Neiman said.

Write to Jon Prior.

For continual coverage of the MBA conference today, follow him on Twitter: @JonAPrior



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