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Archive for December, 2010

Thursday, December 30th, 2010

Initial jobless claims fell considerably last week dropping to 388,000, which is the lowest point in two and a half years and well below most analysts' estimates.

The Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted figure of actual initial claims for the week ended Dec. 25 fell by 34,000 from the previous week's 422,000 that was revised upward by a few thousand.

Weekly claims finally dipped lower than 400,000, which is the level most economists believe indicate the economy is expanding and jobs growth is strengthening.

Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected jobless claims to come in at 415,000 with a range of estimates from 414,000 to 425,000. A Briefing.com survey projected new claims of 415,000 last week.

The four-week moving average decreased by 12,500 to 414,000 claims from a revised average of 426,500. The moving average, which is considered a less volatile indicator than weekly claims, is also now at the lowest point in more than two years. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 3.3% for the week ended Dec. 18 from 3.2% the week prior.

The total number of people receiving some sort of federal unemployment benefits was nearly 8.9 million for the week ended Dec. 4, according to the Labor Department.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Miami home sales in November fell 4.2% from a year ago to 6,647 total despite a five-year high for condos, according to real estate data provider MDA DataQuick.

Home sales in the area remain 30% below the average for November, and were down 12.3% from October. Condo resales made up nearly half of the market in November. There were 3,286 condos sold that month, a 7.4% increase from a year earlier. It's the highest total for a November since 2005 when slightly more than 4,000 condos were sold.

Every month saw regional sales increases above the year-before figures from February 2009 to October 2010. But most have been resales. New home sales are down 25% from a year ago and made up just 6.2% of all transactions.

The median price paid for all new and resale homes in Miami was $140,000, down 9.7% from a year ago but up 3.7% from the previous month. The peak came in June 2007 when homes in Miami sold for $290,000. Prices have been cut by more than one-half since.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Mortgage brokers and companies in Florida now have until March 31, 2011 to renew their mortgage license before it expires, the Florida Office of Financial Regulation said Wednesday.

Director of the agency Tom Cardwell said the FOFR understands the current economy is challenging for the housing industry and that's why it is granting an extension.

"Our goal is to remain business friendly while also protecting Florida's consumers," Cardwell said.

Applications for a new license must be filed in the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System by the original deadline, Dec. 31, but components such as a criminal background check do not need to be in by that date.

Brokers must file an application by Dec. 31 or their Floridian license will expire, the FOFR said. Individuals who have an active license and have filed an application must complete the licensing process by March or their license will expire and they will be forced to discontinue origination activity.

The FOFR reported that only 14,010 of the 42,664 licensed mortgage brokers in the state have applied for a new license. Only 1,628 of 6,957 mortgage companies have applied, and 925 of 3,115 mortgage company branches have applied.

Florida is requiring brokers and originators to get new licenses because it joined the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System in October. The system is the legal system of record for licensing in all participating states. Florida is the latest state to announce its participation.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

The Federal Reserve reaction to the Great Recession was remarkably swift. In the months following the summer of 2008 not only did Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG collapse but Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were also taken under the government's wing.

In a working paper from Frederic Mishkin at the National Bureau of Economic Research, he puts it plainly, "The Federal Reserve's modus operandi during the financial crisis can be characterized by saying that the Fed was engaged in massive experimentation in an unprecedented situation: That is, it was employing a large number of measures to contain the crisis, not knowing exactly which ones would work."

By now we know which ones worked, and it's believed that — not just by Mishkin, but also researchers at the Bank of International Settlements, where Basel 3 reform is finalized — the actions of the Federal Reserve prevented things from getting much, much worse.

And now things are shakily recovering, with numerous threats of a housing drag threatening to pull the economy back under.

This afternoon, we find that the hard-talking Republicans are scaling back their efforts to wind down Fannie and Freddie. Efforts from everyone I speak to suggests a "solution" to the government-sponsored enterprises, whatever that may be, could be years away.

Let me be clear. Fannie and Freddie were absent from the Dodd-Frank Act.

Fine.

But this should not be taken to mean there is time to spare when it comes to reforming the GSEs. One look at the state of the economy tells us otherwise.

In an interview with Wilbur Ross, to be published in the January issue of HousingWire magazine, the billionaire investor summed it up.

"There has to be an interim solution to Fannie and Freddie. There are those exposures, there are more losses coming as we sit here," he said. "There's a need to deal with that. There is not a need for a multiplicity of GSEs, when we can put them all into one."

Ross argues that consolidation of the GSEs would eliminate the duplicity of expenses in the two firms that ultimately rolls into losses for the taxpayer.

And there is no reason to think this would take forever to do so.

As Mishkin notes in the Fed-brokered swallowing of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan, the government took a huge chunk of toxic assets onto its balance sheet.

Sound familiar?

This happened in one famous weekend, which can be read moment by moment in Kate Kelly's book Street Fighters. And when it was over, the Fed immediately turned its attention to Lehman, and brokered a deal with Barclays in a week.

But while the Treasury Department, unlike with investment banks, maintained the authority to overtake Fannie and Freddie, there remains this strange sense of hand sitting and shoulder shrugging when it comes to doing something, anything, to patch the GSEs.

The recovery is still well under way and will be for the New Year.

But it appears an ill resolve to kick start the economy only to kick the GSE can further down the road.

Jacob Gaffney is the editor of HousingWire.

Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.

Write to him.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Intermediate Capital Group Plc is among leveraged loan funds whose expansion into real estate financing this year may help hoteliers and main street retailers fill a $70 billion void left by banks paring risky loans.

Blackstone Group LP’s Europe hotels owner got 150 million euros ($197 million) of mezzanine loans Dec. 13 from funds, reducing the amount it owes to senior bank lenders. Banks cut new U.K. commercial real estate lending by 69 percent last year as they repaired balance sheets battered by the financial crisis, a survey by De Montfort University showed.

“The opportunity is huge,” said Philip Keller, chief financial officer at London-based Intermediate Capital, which made its first move into the market by buying a stake in U.K. real estate debt this month. “We see similar dynamics in the commercial property market to buyout financing, in that banks are sitting on massive property balance sheet which they have to reduce and that’s creating inefficiency in real estate financing.”

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

The fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be center stage in January when the Obama administration makes its required Congressional recommendations about what to do about the two companies.

The stakes for homeowners and the economy couldn't be higher as the next Congressional session will determine if the U.S. has a private mortgage market or if, by controlling housing finance, government bureaucrats will be able to direct where Americans live and how much they pay for housing.

While the administration is trying to figure out how much is too much government intervention in the housing finance markets, it doesn't seem to be concerned with the underlying problems that shut down virtually all new issue volume in the private mortgage securities markets.

As a result, administration proposals are doomed to fail until it acknowledges that radical mortgage finance reform is a prerequisite for the U.S. to break its dependency on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Reform is needed to induce investors to buy newly issued non-government guaranteed mortgage backed securities.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

A sharp drop in foreclosure filings has resulted in a steep decline in money available to fund Florida’s court system, although it’s not certain if that reduction in filings is only temporary, a state Senate committee has been told.

One senator on the panel said the Legislature and others should look at ways of speeding up civil cases as an alternative to spending more on the courts.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Large banks and thrifts foreclosed on 382,000 homes in the third quarter, a 31.2% spike from the previous quarter, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Foreclosures increased 3.7% from a year ago, and more are coming. There are 1.2 million homes in the foreclosure process as of the end of the third quarter, up 4.5% from the previous quarter and an increase of 10.1% from a year ago.

The OCC, which oversees the largest banks and absorbs the Office of Thrift Supervision in 2011, said lenders have picked up the pace of foreclosures to get through their backlogs.

Still, 87.4% of the 33.3 million loans in the banks' portfolios were current and performing at the end of the quarter, which held unchanged from the previous quarter. While the amount of borrowers in 60-plus day delinquency dropped 6.4% from the previous quarter, mortgages between 30- and 60-days delinquent increased 4.3%.

But servicers reported more home retention actions than foreclosures in the third quarter. More than 470,000 borrowers received either a trial modification, permanent modification or shorter-term payment plans.

Of the modifications completed in the third quarter, 88% included a principal reduction to go with the interest-rate decrease, and more than 54% reduced monthly payments by at least 20%.

More recent modifications are performing better than earlier ones, too. For those completed in the fourth quarter of 2009, 20.2% were seriously delinquent after six months. For those made in the second quarter of 2009, 33.5% were seriously delinquent after the same amount of time.

Write to Jon Prior.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

One of the most common Republican battle cries over the past year has been to wind down government sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F&F). They played a major role in creating the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis. The taxpayers' loss on their rescue will exceed $150 billion, which is several times the cost of the rescue for the rest of the financial industry. Yet a new report indicates that Republicans might not be so eager to tear down F&F after all.

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Principal Real Estate Investors expects the Republican gains in Congress, stabilizing commercial real estate values, stronger corporate earnings, higher personal savings rates and the dynamics related to quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve will fuel economic growth in 2011.

The institutional real estate manager said these factors should gradually reduce the unemployment rate that's flirted with 10% all year and help stave off a double-dip recession.

"Despite policy uncertainty, a soft patch in the U.S. economy, and continued peril in the broader investment environment, we feel there are several reasons for optimism in 2011 and beyond," Principal told investors in its outlook for next year.

The firm said the political rebalancing of November should reduce risk of "unwelcome legislative initiatives" and lower "corporate perceptions of anti-business political climate."

Principal expects policy decisions by the Fed to prop up asset values over the near-to-intermediate term and "help the wealth effect." More stable commercial real estate values "should help unclog bank balance sheets through improved resolution of problem loans, freeing up lending capacity and improved credit formation for small business."

The company anticipates the cumulative impact of these and other factors to help real estate and capital markets next year and in 2012.

"The outlying years of 2013 and beyond do face the risk that a reversal of ultra-accommodative monetary policy and removal of quantitative easing could produce a material upward movement in Treasury rates, which would be generally unfavorable for cap rates, discount rates and borrowing rates," according to Principal.

The company said the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities is bouncing back, but the regulatory reform upcoming with the formation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau "could still take the wind out of the sails of the burgeoning CMBS recovery." Of particular interest is the uncertainty surrounding the final risk-retention rules, especially for banks that issue CMBS.

Write to Jason Philyaw.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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