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Archive for December, 2010

Friday, December 17th, 2010

The stronger capital standards outlined in Basel 3 will lead to a decline in the level of gross domestic product output of about 0.22%, according to a report from the international group of economists formed to study the implications of the new requirements.

The Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said the transition to the new capital requirements for global banking "is likely to have a modest impact on aggregate output."

The Macroeconomic Assessment Group of the two bodies concluded the maximum GDP impact will occur after 35 quarters, or nearly nine years, of implementation of the Basel 3 guidelines that were announced in September.

"In terms of growth rates, annual growth would be 0.03 percentage points below its baseline level over this period," the study by the group found. "That would then be followed by a recovery in GDP toward the baseline. A faster implementation period would lead to a slightly larger reduction from the baseline path, with the trough occurring earlier, resulting in a somewhat greater impact on annual growth rates."

The group said their assessment assumes banks implement the new capital conservation buffer of 2.5% within the eight-year plan set by the supervisory committee. But if banks decide to adopt the new standards sooner, the group said the impact on GDP will increase to 0.29% in the 10th quarter of implementation.

"These effects would also be accentuated to the degree that banks choose to hold an additional voluntary equity capital buffer above the new standards," the group said.

Banks have until Jan. 1, 2019, to fully comply with the new standards.

In late October, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision questioned whether financial institutions will be able to meet the capital requirements mandated in Basel 3.

The New York Times is reporting that the world's largest banks are billions of dollars short of meeting the required reserve levels.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Friday, December 17th, 2010

As the one-time largest plaintiffs foreclosure law firm in Florida, the Law Offices of David J. Stern at its peak handled 20% of all foreclosures in the state, processing more than 70,000 foreclosure cases on behalf of major lenders like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase in 2009.

Now that the Plantation law firm has been dropped by a number of lenders and servicers including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ex-clients are scrambling to find law firms and lawyers to fill the void.

Friday, December 17th, 2010

If Americans weren’t buying homes when rates were at 4.25%, what happens now that rates have popped back to 5%?

On Thursday, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 5.09% (with average fees equal to 0.28% of the loan amount), according to HSH.com, a financial publisher. That’s up from 4.8% last Friday. A separate survey from Freddie Mac said rates averaged 4.83% for the week ending Thursday (with average fees of 0.7%), and that’s up from a record low of 4.17% one month ago.

Rising rates certainly doesn’t make it any easier for homeowners to sell.  But how much will it hurt?

Friday, December 17th, 2010

U.S. borrowers stymied by lenders that refuse to cut their mortgage principal to market levels should just keep trying, as lenders may have a change of heart, an Obama administration official said on Thursday.

A Federal Housing Administration staffer, hosting one of four conference calls to brief brokers on its "short refinance" program this week, confronted a few critics among routine questions about a plan that addresses the massive problem of homeowner equity lost during the housing slump. The FHA is part of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The program has been pitched by FHA Commissioner David Stevens as "the single most effective way" to cut principal for homeowners who owe more than their home is worth. With some 11 million loans underwater, the problem is one that academics see as the main hurdle to U.S. economic health, as borrowers feel poorer and have trouble refinancing or moving.

The program is controversial for lenders since they must write down at least 10 percent of the mortgage principal and refinance the borrower into an FHA-backed loan.

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Loss severities are expected to increase between 5% and 10% on residential mortgage-backed securities in 2011 as loss mitigation costs and foreclosure expenses go up, according to Fitch Ratings. This, analysts said, will push servicers to short sales.

The loss severity, or the percentage of principal lost when a loan is foreclosed, on prime mortgage loans is currently at 44%. This, according to Fitch, will increase to between 49% and 54% in 2011. For Alt-A loans, the current 59% loss severity should increase to between 64% and 69%.

Currently, the loss severity on subprime loans is 75%, but Fitch predicts it will increase to 80% and 85% by the next year.

These loss severities had remained stable for more than a year. In the second quarter of 2009, the amount a lender could recover when it foreclosed on a mortgage was propped up by slightly improving home prices, low mortgage rates, homebuyer tax credits and government-funded modifications.

With the tax break expired, mortgage rates increasing and underwhelming modification numbers pose many tough challenges for the housing market in 2011.

Increased servicing costs from pressures to modify more loans and recent problems with many banks' foreclosure processes will drag down the amount of principal banks can recover from a foreclosure. Borrowers average 19 months without making a payment before they are foreclosed upon, a record high, and Fitch projects this to increase to 25 months in 2011.

Fitch Managing Director Diane Pendley said the answer for some lenders is a short sale.

"Servicers are increasingly turning to less costly alternatives to foreclosure such as short-sales," Pendley said.

Recovery rates on short sales are usually 10% higher than foreclosures. Pendley said servicers are also reducing the amount of payments they advance to securitization trusts from delinquent borrowers, particularly on subprime loans. In November, Fitch said, servicers advanced only roughly 60% of delinquent subprime loans, down from 90% at the beginning of 2009.

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Foreclosure postings filed on Dallas-Fort Worth homes for the January foreclosure auction were down, although levels remain elevated.

Lenders posted 5,543 D-FW metro area homes for the Jan. 4 foreclosure auction, down 6% from 5,894 postings for January auctions a year ago and down 9% from December’s 6,081 postings. In comparison, only 1,039 foreclosures were posted for auction sales in January 2000, according to Foreclosure Listing Service, based in the Dallas suburb of Addison.

“January’s year-over-year decline in home postings marked the seventh time during the past nine months that there has been a decrease in the same month year-over-year comparison,” said George Roddy Sr., president of FLS.

“While any decline is welcomed news, I must caution that this does not mean the foreclosure market has turned the corner.  In fact, we are most likely far from a real recovery in the foreclosure arena.”

The average posting filed on a D-FW home involved a delinquent mortgage that originated back in the middle of 2004.

“Certainly, there was a tremendous amount of lending that went on in 2004, 2005, 2006 and even in 2007; therefore, the market has a lot more troubled loans to work through before this foreclosure crisis will improve a significant amount.”

A record high was set in April with 6,168 notices filed.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Recovery in the housing market will become a main driver for growth next year, according to one Chicago-based financial services firm.

Mesirow Financial analysts said housing has fallen so low that there's only one way to go, but the expected level of activity in home sales and starts "is expected to remain closer to that associated with a recession than a recovery, well into 2012."

Earlier Thursday, the Commerce Department reported housing starts rose 3.9% in November, while construction permits fell to the lowest point in a year and a half.

"Low mortgage rates, more realistic pricing and rising comparable rents have all combined to render the marginal costs of home ownership lower than renting," according to Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial chief economist and senior managing director. "Gains in both employment and wages should also provide a lift to credit scores. So far, however, gains remain concentrated in wealthier, more established neighborhoods."

The company also said yield-seeking investors looking to generate returns higher than 3% on 10-year Treasury securities have flocked into real estate lately. Although investors and lenders are leaning toward the same primary assets – those in large, core urban areas. Mesirow Financial said 35% of all major office transactions in the U.S. this year occurred in New York or Washington, while 45% of European office deals have taken place in London or Paris.

Secondary assets aren't attracting capital and are trading at much higher yields and lower prices, according to the company.

"Refinancing risks are higher for owners of these assets and new capital infused, in our view, presents a much better risk-adjusted return than core today, as there is a much higher margin for error," according to Joshua Daitch, senior managing director at Mesirow Financial.

He said the global economic recovery is occurring at different speeds with economies of the developed world, "burdened by overleveraged public and private balance sheets," moving much slower.

Meanwhile, the growing urbanization and development of a middle class in China and India creates "real demand that has to be satisfied by apartment, retail, logistics and office buildings."

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed ratings on 1,196 classes of 129 residential mortgage-backed securities real estate investment conduit transactions on credit watch with negative implications.

The transactions were issued between 2002 and 2010. The so-called Re-REMICs are the re-securitization of mortgage loans that had already been pooled. Not all credit-rating agencies rate Re-REMICs.

S&P said it "incorrectly analyzed" the timely and expected interest payments on the Re-REMIC classes and the allocation of those payments. Analysts did not take into effect the interest paid pro rata, or proportionately, on the senior securities. According to S&P, these inherently contain lower credit protection than securities in which the interest is paid sequentially.

Two-thirds of the classes affected by the action are from transactions issued in in 2010 and one-quarter were issued in 2009. Of those issued before 2009, many of the actions were taken because of credit deterioration.

"We plan to resolve the CreditWatch placements after we complete further analytical cash flow testing and documentation reviews, where appropriate," S&P said.

Analysts at Barclays Capital said the actions were primarily due to the potential for interest short falls. Analysts at the British investment bank said it would difficult to break 2010 Re-REMIC super seniors from a credit standpoint, and the same is true for any issued in the back-half of 2009.

"There will be some downgrades for 2008 and even early 2009 super seniors due purely to rating agency changes in loss assumptions since issuance," BarCap analysts said, adding the list released by S&P of affected securities "did not raise any questions on the bonds' credit-worthiness from the point of view of principal payments, but instead focused on the potential for interest shortfalls."

Write to Jon Prior.

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Lender Processing Services (LPS: 16.78 +1.39%) said the delinquency rate for loans that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure was 9.02% in November, down nearly 3% from October and down 15.6% from November 2009.

Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate was 4.08%, up 4.1% from the previous month and up 8% from  the year-ago period.

LPS, a provider of mortgage industry data and analytics, provided the “first look” from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million mortgage loans.

The company said 4.77 million loans are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure. It said 2.16 million loans are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.

LPS said 6.93 million properties are 30 days or more delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure.

Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, Georgia and New Jersey have the highest percentages of delinquent loans. States with the lowest percentage of deliquent loans were Montana, Wyoming, Alaska and the Dakotas.

The company will provide a more in-depth review of is mortgage  data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report later in the month.

Write to Kerry Curry.

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Lloyd Booth is a founder and chief operations officer of Blueberry Systems, a data manager for mortgage originations. In this role, Lloyd is responsible for product design and engineering for the firm. Booth began his career in mortgage lending in 1984 when he joined Diversified Mortgage Services.

Blueberry originated from a $3 billion-plus mortgage banker. How did this happen and why?

Lloyd Booth: In 2005, Cherry Creek Mortgage Co. knew that the system they had been on wasn’t very accommodating or scalable enough for future growth. So they hired me, as a consultant, to facilitate their visioning process – that is, to help them identify the next steps in their technological evolution. We helped them identify what their current and future needs were and how they stacked up with existing technology. As it turned out, nothing fully met their needs so they asked me to build it.

Early on, we saw the business opportunity in developing the technology so it was universally applicable and breaking it off in a separate venture. It was a lot more work, but well worth it.

Some people assume our relationship with Cherry Creek would have drawbacks. On the contrary, to have a working test environment in the same building gives Blueberry Systems a great competitive advantage. That kind of proximity is invaluable. It provides us with real-time feedback from every single person in the production process. Our technology revolves around the individual as much as anything else. While we now have other clients, having a close relationship with a national lender has been extremely beneficial.

HW: What do you tell (or offer) your clients looking to reach regulatory compliance and, better yet, avoid repurchases?

LB: Data quality is job one. That is, the ability to capture, transfer and audit data seamlessly and in real-time is incredibly important. Amazingly, many of today’s systems still can’t wholly capture all the data a lender is required to manage. And many more are still transferring data between data silos and/or re-keying some of that data during the production process. Finally, very few systems can adequately audit the data as it evolves.

Millions of dollars are lost every year by lenders because of bad data that comes back to haunt them in the form of repurchases. With the technology available today, there’s no excuse for it. That includes automated fraud prevention integrated directly into the LOS (loan origination system) workflow, preferably on the front end. Ultimately, garbage in is still garbage out.

HW: Do you think the mortgage process needs to be rethought and re-created?

LB: Probably, but it’s unrealistic. As long as regulations, pending regulations and potential pending regulations are hanging over the industry’s head, there’s no likely way to simplify the production flow-chart of an average home loan. Back in the real world, however, technology is truly — or at least it should be — a lender’s best friend. The good technology that’s available today can take the ridiculous complexity and risk that’s involved and acutely minimize them. Bad technology can be a nightmare and completely counterproductive. But a good LOS is like an ‘Easy’ button for lenders.

HW: Should all mortgages go completely electronic? Are there some pitfalls to something like that?

LB: I’m sure electronic mortgages will be standard at some point in the future. There are obviously enormous efficiencies to be made with them and they will make loans more accessible to technology. But that’s not to say there aren’t pitfalls. The biggest pitfall today is the misperception that e-mortgages will solve what ails us. It’s true that loans will become more transparent and auditable. But that only addresses the delivery of the loan data. (Is it complete? Is it intact?) But e-mortgages don’t address the content of the loan. (Is the data truthful?) That’s where things like compliance, fraud-prevention and real-time auditing of the data evolution come in.

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Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

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Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

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