RSS Twitter

Archive for November, 2010

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Sorting out America’s fiscal mess is relatively simple. What’s needed is political courage.

Last week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections. With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad. Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy. He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle America’s ominous fiscal arithmetic.

Conventional wisdom says such an agreement is impossible: the problem is too big, the politics too difficult. But it is wrong to suppose that the deficit is unfixable, as two proposals for fixing it have shown this month. And even the politics may not be totally intractable.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Former Senator Alan Simpson is a Very Serious Person. He must be — after all, President Obama appointed him as co-chairman of a special commission on deficit reduction.

So here’s what the very serious Mr. Simpson said on Friday: “I can’t wait for the blood bath in April. … When debt limit time comes, they’re going to look around and say, ‘What in the hell do we do now? We’ve got guys who will not approve the debt limit extension unless we give ’em a piece of meat, real meat,’ ” meaning spending cuts. “And boy, the blood bath will be extraordinary,” he continued.

Think of Mr. Simpson’s blood lust as one more piece of evidence that our nation is in much worse shape, much closer to a political breakdown, than most people realize.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

The American Bankers Association named Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating as the firm's next president and chief executive officer, effective Jan. 1. He replaces the current president and CEO Ed Yingling, who is retiring.

"Frank was the unanimous choice of the search committee," said Stephen Wilson, the newly elected chairman of the ABA. "He brings to this position tremendous energy, a strong history of involvement in financial issues, the respect of policymakers on both sides of the aisle and extensive management experience."

For the past eight years, Keating served as governor of Oklahoma as well as held senior positions at the U.S. Justice Department, the U.S. Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. He also spent eight years as CEO of the American Council of Life Insurers, a trade association for life insurance providers.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

The banks were already allowed to merge under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act, but regulators had provided no details on the terms of a merger or whether it would be approved…

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide home-loan rates rose to the highest in more than a year relative to 10-year Treasuries.

Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed about 0.03 percentage point to about 0.96 percentage point more than 10-year U.S. government debt as of 11:05 a.m. in New York, the widest spread since October 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gap was 0.76 percentage point on Oct. 29.

Prices for the securities tumbled this month relative to Treasuries even as those of so-called agency mortgage bonds backed by higher-rate loans soared. Rising borrowing costs may cause the lowest-coupon debt to prepay more slowly than investors expected by reducing consumer refinancing and home sales. That would delay the time it takes for bondholders to recoup their principal.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Third-quarter earnings at institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. continue to get stronger even as the number of banks on the regulator's problem list nears the highest level in 17 years.

The FDIC said banks it insures earned $14.5 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, up substantially from $2 billion a year earlier and the fifth-straight quarter of earnings growth. While more than three-fifths of banks reported increased third-quarter earnings, almost one-fifth reported a loss, according to the FDIC.

"The banking industry is indeed regaining its footing in spite of the still fragile economy," according to James Chessen, chief economist of the American Bankers Association. "Asset quality has improved, loan losses have declined, and banks continue to increase their capital levels.  As economic conditions improve, banks will be in a strong position to look for new lending opportunities and meet loan demands in their communities."

Meanwhile, there are now 860 banks on the FDIC problem list, up from 829 in the second quarter and 55% higher than 552 a year ago. The regulator said the level of troubled banks is the highest since March 1993 when there were 928. Some 41 banking institutions were shuttered by the FDIC during the third quarter and another 22 have closed since, pushing the total of bank failures to 149 this year. For all of 2009, 140 banks failed.

The deposit insurance fund, which protects depositors upon a bank's failure, improved for the third-consecutive quarter and now stands at a negative $8 billion, which is narrower than the negative $15.2 billion a year ago. The FDIC said assessment revenues and a reduction in the contingent loss reserve helped the DIF. The reserve, which covers costs of expected failures, declined to $21.3 billion from $27.5 billion.

"While we expect demands on cash to continue, our projections indicate that our current resources are more than enough to resolve anticipated failures and meet outstanding obligations for banks that have already failed," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said.

She said lower provisions for loan losses, which fell for the first time in four years, are helping bank earnings and fueling the recovery for the industry. Most banks increased loan loss provisions in the third quarter, but reductions at large banks resulted in an overall decline. An 8.1% increase in net interest income to $8.1 billion, and gains on securities and other assets of $7.3 billion also boosted the bottom line for the quarter.

"Credit performance has been improving, and we remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook," Bair said. "At this point in the credit cycle it is too early for institutions to be reducing reserves without strong evidence of sustainable, improving loan performance and reduced loss rates. When it comes to the adequacy of reserves, institutions should always err on the side of caution."

And many banks may be stockpiling reserves in anticipation of new capital requirements mandated in Basel 3.

"Banks added another $18.4 billion in equity capital in the third quarter and total industry capital is now over $1.5 trillion," according to ABA's Chessen. "When added to the more than $240 billion in reserves banks have set aside to cover losses, this makes for a total buffer of roughly $1.74 trillion against losses."

"In addition, the industry capital-to-assets ratio – a key measure of financial strength – continues to improve and is at the highest level since the 1920s.  In fact, 95.7% of banks – holding 99% of the industry’s assets – are classified as ‘well capitalized,’ which is the highest regulatory designation possible," Chessen said.

The FDIC said the amount of loans and leases 90-days or more past due during the third quarter fell for a second-consecutive quarter. And the level of charge offs for uncollectible loans fell nearly 16% for the quarter to $42.9 billion from about $51 billion a year earlier. This is the second quarter in a row that net charge-offs posted a year-over-year decline.

Write to Jason Philyaw.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Freddie Mac's 90-plus day delinquency rate increased for the first time since February, according to the government sponsored enterprise's monthly summary. The delinquency rate for single-family residences was 3.82% in October, up from 3.8% in September.

The delinquency rate for multifamily properties also increased, up to 0.44% in October from 0.35%; however, this is the second consecutive monthly increase in delinquencies on this type of property.

One year ago, the delinquency rate for single-family residences backed by Freddie Mac was 3.65% and 0.18% for multifamily properties. That constitutes a 4.6% yearly increase in single-family delinquencies from 2009 and a 144.4% yearly increase in multifamily delinquencies.

The 2007 vintage accounts for the most delinquencies, as 0.64% of these loans are between 60- and 90-days delinquent and 0.95% are more than 90-days delinquent. A total of 12,763 loans originated in 2007 are delinquent on Freddie Mac's books.

Freddie Mac's most recent weekly mortgage rate survey indicated the rate for a 30-year fixed-mortgage rate increased for the first time in two months, up to 4.39%.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

New capital adequacy ratios under the Basel 3 accords will push up the cost of securitization and stress the capital levels of banks, even though full implementation is up to eight years away.

The Bank of International Settlements, which conducts the Basel committee that updates banking oversight regulations, is setting guidelines to the updates and is revising the rules to reflect capital adequacy needed to protect banks during the next potential downturn. The exact framework of Basel 3 is still being determined and the G20 nations are expected to formally adopt the set of supervision by the end of next year. In the meantime, credit analysts are trying to get an early foothold on potential obstacles Basel 3 may create. In late October, a committee commissioned by the BIS questioned whether financial institutions can even met the capital requirements mandated of the new global banking standards.

While the accords are not scheduled to begin implementation until another two years, with 2018 as the deadline, the banking industry is sounding alarms that Basel 3 capital requirements may doubly create a capital shortfall while driving up the cost of structured financing, namely securitization.

"We believe the adoption of the Basel 3 capital requirement platform is likely to raise the cost of securitization and could influence the strategies of banks that originate or invest in structured finance transactions," said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Jaiho Cho. "With the more-conservative capital reserve requirements for certain securitization exposures, banks may look for ways to reduce their existing exposures and will likely also try to reduce the potential capital charges arising from new transactions."

S&P states Basel 3 includes some specific changes to bank treatment of securitization exposures when calculating their capital requirements, including:
• The application of a 1250% risk weight to some lower-rated and unrated securitization exposures;
• The introduction of more conservative collateral haircuts (discounts) for securitization collateral with respect to counterparty exposure; and
• The introduction of specific risk haircuts for securitization exposures when calculating the capital requirement related to market risk.

Tom McGuire of the Capital Advisory Group, a unit of Barclays Capital's Investment Banking Division, has been modeling the pro forma effect of the Basel 3 changes on the top 35 U.S. banks since the proposals first came out in December.

McGuire estimates that based on second-quarter numbers, the top 35 U.S. banks have a capital shortfall of approximately $100 billion to $150 billion under Basel 3, at an 8% tier one common threshold.

"He views this shortfall is 'manageable' over the Basel phase-in schedule, and can be achieved largely through retained earnings and balance sheet management including running off/selling assets and optimizing counterparty exposures," said a Barclays Capital spokesperson familiar with the situation.

McGuire does not expect a need for bank equity raisings and also estimates that the top 35 banks have a liquidity shortfall of approximately $500 billion, which in all likelihood will be handled through prudent asset and liability management.

"It's important to keep in mind that his pro forma estimates apply all the Basel 3 changes immediately as if they applied today, when in fact, the official Basel 3 implementation timeline extends through 2018 — in other words, banks have several years to address these shortfalls," the source adds.

Admittedly, McGuire's data is very forward-looking and not definitive. For example, the results still lack numbers on items deductible from capital. Such numbers are fluid and will likely change as regulators publish more detail on how the new rules are to be precisely calculated.

Write to Jacob Gaffney.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

A lawsuit brought by Lehman Brothers Holdings against Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp. concerns only one loan originated in April 2006, Fairway's CEO said Tuesday, in response to the lawsuit.

"We originate between 16,000 and 17,000 loans a year. This is about one loan," Fairway CEO Steve Jacobson told HousingWire Tuesday. "I think that's very important to understand."

Lehman Brothers is suing Fairway for misrepresentation of the borrower's debt with regard to that loan. Lehman also alleges that Fairway violated the repurchase agreement between the two firms.

The loan was a cash-out refinance, stated-income loan worth $291,000 with an 80% loan-to-value ratio, according to Fairway. The borrower was located in Florida at the time the loan was originated and, according to Jacobson, the loan product at the center of debate doesn't exist anymore.

Jacobson said Fairway's quality control division is rebutting the Lehman accusation filed on Nov. 19 by "collecting the facts" and preparing a response to the holding company about the repurchase.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Existing homes sales dipped 2.2% in October, but came in above most analyst estimates while remaining near record lows.

The National Association of Realtors said seasonally adjusted sales fell to 4.43 million last month from 4.53 million in September. The monthly rate is down 26% from the nearly 6 million units sold in October 2009, but slowly moving away from the 3.83 million reported in July, which was the lowest level recorded since NAR began publishing the report in 1999.

Economists polled by Econoday were expecting October sales to fall slightly to 4.5 million with a range of estimates between 4.25 million and 4.7 million. A Briefing.com survey projected sales of 4.2 million for last month.

Through 10 months, existing home sales of 4.15 million are 2.9% lower than about 4.27 million a year earlier.

"The housing market is experiencing an uneven recovery, and a temporary foreclosure stoppage in some states is likely to have held back a number of completed sales," NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. "Still, sales activity is clearly off the bottom and is attempting to settle into normal sustainable levels. Based on current and improving job market conditions, and from attractive affordability conditions, sales should steadily improve to healthier levels of above 5 million by spring of next year."

In early October, the nation's largest lenders suspended foreclosures across the country to review processes and possible problems with affidavits and document notarizations.

The average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage bounced around historic lows throughout October, according to Freddie Mac. The Federal Housing Finance Agency also reported lower rates in October, down significantly from September.

NAR President Ron Phipps pointed to tighter lending standards and low appraisals as reasons for slow sale despite the record low interest rates.

"We’ll likely see some impact from the foreclosure moratorium in the months ahead, but overly tight credit is making it difficult for some creditworthy borrowers to qualify for a mortgage, and we are continuing to deal with a notable share of appraisals coming in below a price negotiated between a buyer and seller," said Phipps, who is president of Phipps Realty in Rhode Island.

NAR, which measures the completed transactions of single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops, said the median price for all housing types was $170,500 in October, down 0.9% from a year earlier.

Distressed sales accounted for 34% of sales last month, down slightly from 35% in September and up from 30% a year earlier.

Write to Jason Philyaw.



Origination/Lending
Kenneth Bacon, executive vice president of the Fannie Mae multifamily mortgage business, is retiring after 18 years at the mortgage...

Read More »

Servicing/Default
The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two...

Read More »